Justice delos Santos wrote a heckuva profile about Cox last week and the section on his swing adjustment really got me excited.<\/p>\n
Before the team traveled to Boston, Cox and Mense talked about implementing a wider base with no stride. When Cox tried it out in the cage, Mense recalled him three straight line drives up the middle.<\/p>\n
Cox introduced his refurbished mechanics on Aug. 23 and saw immediate results.<\/p>\n
From August 23rd to September 16th, Cox slashed .329\/.386\/.461 in 23 games (86 PA) with 3 homers, a double, and 9 stolen bases. Three weeks of me going gaga here in my mom\u2019s basement. Earlier in the piece, hitting coach Hunter Mense put my it plainly: \u201cAnybody that has the kind of toolset that he does is incredibly exciting to watch because you don\u2019t know what the ceiling is going to be.\u201d<\/p>\n
Sometimes, there\u2019s added hype from the context. But that\u2019s just not the case here. I don\u2019t care that the Giants got him from the A\u2019s. For Ross Stripling. During Farhan Zaidi\u2019s tenure. But that he also flourished under the new player development program run by Randy Winn. It only matters that he\u2019s here and he\u2019s got me excited about a team I have been invited<\/a> (and taken the opportunity) to hate a little bit.<\/p>\n But maybe the streak is over. Maybe it\u2019s time to take off the rose colored glasses. Maybe it\u2019s logical to tone down my excitement. This past week, he\u2019s struck out 12 times in 25 plate appearances (48 K%) and is 2-for-20 (.100). That speed and defense has certainly helped prop up his profile overall (he\u2019s about a 1 WAR player right now no matter the WAR system), but he\u2019s got a lot of swing and miss. Too much. On the season, it\u2019s 60 strikeouts to 10 walks in 157 plate appearances. Putting aside the 6:1 ratio, that\u2019s still 38.3% overall.<\/p>\n In the minors, it\u2019s a far more palatable 23.4% for his career and 17% here in 2026. He hit .400 in the minors this season, you know. It\u2019s so easy to root for him and dream big right now. But check out this list of 2B\/OF types who had 200 PA or fewer, 15 or fewer walks and 60 or more strikeouts (which I\u2019ve gone ahead and sorted by rWAR):<\/p>\n I didn\u2019t expect to get just 33 results; but, as I suspected, it\u2019s not promising. On the other hand \u2014 wow, Jonah Cox is the best of this bunch. What I\u2019m looking to see is whether or not this could be a part of a players\u2019 track record long-term. To do that, I needed to sort by age. The younger the player, the better chance of this being a sort of rough start to a career.<\/p>\n Players for whom this was their final season<\/p>\n Players who\u2019d play in just 1 more season<\/p>\n Bill Hall (14 MLB PAs for Baltimore), Gregory Polanco (382 PA for PIT; 72 OPS+), Jhonkensy Noel (153 PA for CLE; 31 OPS+), Trayvon Robinson (164 PA for SEA; 76 OPS)<\/p>\n Players who had a couple of years left<\/p>\n Drew Stubbs (last game: 5\/5\/2017 w\/Giants), Jake Marisnick (last game: 7\/18\/2023), Reggie Taylor (2005), Travis Demeritte (2022)<\/p>\n Players who lasted a few more years<\/p>\n Andrew Knapp (last game: 8\/28\/2024 w\/Giants), Jake Cave (2024), Cory Snider (1994), Chris Owings (2023), Deven Marrero (2022), Mikie Mahtook (2019), Garrett Hampson (2025), JaCoby Jones (2021), Keston Hiura (2025), Brett Phillips (2023)<\/p>\n Egyptian Healy (1885-1892)*, Gorman Thomas (1973-1986)<\/p>\n Result in current season\/still active<\/p>\n Gabriel Arias, Jonah Cox, Tristan Gray, James Outman, Denzel Clarke, Alex Jackson, Connor Norby, Josh Lowe, Jordan Beck, Leody Taveras<\/p>\n So, after reviewing MLB history, the most accurate thing we could say is that nothing is set in stone. Cox could go either way. Makes sense. This is his age-24 season. He\u2019s got a heckuva MiLB track record. Egyptian Healy (1886) and Gorman Thomas (1973) are the two outliers in this comparison group \u2014 Healy was a pitcher who amassed that hitting line \u2014 who are from such wildly different eras that a comparison doesn\u2019t seem relevant. Just eyeballing the list, if Cox is to have longevity at all, it\u2019ll be because of his speed and defense. But will his bat push him into being a regular or is he bound for the bench?<\/p>\n Strikeout rates are as instructive as walk rates<\/a> \u2014 at least, to me they are. There\u2019s some research to suggest that Double-A numbers are also strong predictors of MLB success\/failure<\/a>, and so when I mash those two ideas together in my brain I get the idea that Jonah Cox is still making the adjustment to major league pitching. But that 17% MiLB strikeout rate sis a swing and a drive away from the 38.2% he has in his first 157 plate appearances. The scant Statcast data isn\u2019t exciting either. 5.8% barrel rate. Just a .213 expected batting average. A 32.7% chase rate.<\/p>\n Still, he\u2019s kind of unique. If you filter the age to 24 or younger and set a minimum threshold for stolen bases of 10, then the only comp is that Leody Taveras season, who was graded as one of the best prospects and athletes when he signed as an international amateur in 2015 and as he got older was graded for playing plus defense at a premium position<\/a>. Now, some speedsters can thrive if they can square up the ball<\/a>, but Cox isn\u2019t at that point \u2014 not yet, anyway.<\/p>\n The position comparison doesn\u2019t necessarily suggest that regular starter I\u2019d so hoped for either, but he has certainly demonstrated an intensity and physical talent to keep an eye on; the team isn\u2019t necessarily set at the position, but at the very least with Gilbert there, too, they\u2019ve got options in center that they didn\u2019t have a year ago.<\/p>\n But, I guess, pump the brakes. Take a breath. Cox is not quite the surprise breakout of this rebuild season, but he has certainly made us all anxious to see if he can take the next step.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"I have a terrible track record when it comes to singling out players. 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<\/a><\/p>\n