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<\/p>\nFor the second time in three weeks, three hurricanes are spinning at once between Hawaii and Mexico. Until this month, the Pacific had managed that exactly once in the modern record, in the super El Ni\u00f1o summer of 2015.<\/p>\n
Hurricane Polo regained Category 5 strength Friday for the third time in its short life, with 180 mph winds and a pressure of 913 millibars as of 2 p.m. Hurricane Odalys blew past every intensity forecast to reach Category 4 Friday morning, with 130 mph winds and a pressure of 946 millibars, before wind shear started pulling it apart Friday afternoon. And Hurricane Nolo was crawling north at 5 mph about 175 miles south of the Big Island, on track to become a category 4 hurricane by Sunday night.<\/p>\n
California is catching a break, and a bit of luck. A trough developing off the coast Saturday will deepen into a cutoff low and push into the state through the weekend, cooling the Bay Area into the 60s and 70s and spreading clouds. The timing is fortuitous. Instead of absorbing the tropical moisture from Odalys and Polo and funneling it into the state, the low will deflect Polo and what’s left of Odalys east into Baja California, sending the tropical moisture to Arizona and New Mexico.<\/p>\n
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A deepening upper level storm system will shield California from much of Polo’s effects, pushing the storm east into Baja California. (weatherbell)<\/p>\n
Swells from both hurricanes will arrive in Southern California this weekend and peak Monday and Tuesday, with 4 to 7 feet on south-facing beaches and high tides near 7 feet, almost a foot above the astronomical tide because El Ni\u00f1o has already raised sea level along the coast. The National Weather Service in Los Angeles says the most likely outcome is a step below Hurricane Marie’s swell earlier this month, which caused significant damage<\/a> along the coast earlier this month.<\/p>\n The news is not as good for Hawaii, Mexico and the Southwest. Hawaii is facing its second hurricane brush in less than three weeks, and its fourth tropical system of the year, in line with a Chronicle analysis<\/a> of 76 hurricane seasons that found Hawaii sees nearly 2.5 times as many tropical storms and hurricanes pass close by in summers preceding a strong or very strong El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n Lala dropped over 43 inches of rain at Laup\u0101hoehoe on the Big Island six weeks ago, the third-wettest tropical cyclone in Hawaii’s history. Nolo is forecast to put another 10 to 15 inches – as much as 25 in some spots – this weekend. If Nolo tops 30 inches, Hawaii will have seen two of its five wettest tropical cyclones on record in six weeks.<\/p>\n Hawaii will face another close call with a major hurricane. Nolo is not expected to make direct landfall, but will bring torrential rain and dangerous surf. (NOAA)<\/p>\n A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch are in effect for Hawaii County, with a tropical storm watch for Maui County. Dangerous surf and coastal flooding are also in play. Nolo will start to weaken early next week after it swings past Hawaii.<\/p>\n Polo should slowly weaken over the weekend, then make a sharp turn to the northeast and come ashore Monday on the Pacific side of Baja California Sur as a Category 2 hurricane with winds near 110 mph. If that forecast holds, it would be the strongest landfall anywhere on the peninsula since Odile in 2014.<\/p>\n Odalys should rapidly weaken over the weekend, but its tropical moisture will combine with Polo’s and surge into the Southwest next week, fueling a dangerous flood threat just over a week after flooding enhanced by a different tropical disturbance killed three people in New Mexico<\/a>. Arizona and New Mexico have been exceptionally wet recently, and soil moisture levels are at near full saturation in many locations.<\/p>\n The tropical threat is far from over. The National Hurricane Center is watching two more areas in the Pacific, both with a greater than 60% chance of developing into named tropical systems.<\/p>\n Subscribe<\/p>\n There’s more to San Francisco with the Chronicle. Subscribe today for just 25\u00a2.<\/a><\/p>\n![\"Hawaii](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/https:\/\/media.zenfs.com\/en\/san_francisco_chronicle_hearst_178\/e2f79774ab2f07f1c39bda2c6f74c566.jpg\"\/)
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