![\"Deshaun](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/01m3mgm9mq52dj24zq89.jpg\" "\\"Deshaun")
<\/p>\nThe designer statistic is the NFL\u2019s silent assassin. Seemingly every outlier performance, both good and bad, is accompanied by a computer-generated information nugget that lets us know that teams in a similar position are a combined 987\u20131 when leading by three touchdowns in late September, when the temperature crests 72\u00b0, and the crescent moon hangs over the meadow. The songbirds sing of lovers\u2019 past, with your idiot team being the only one that has lost in that situation. I never know what to do when I see those, and also is anyone else with a supercomputer fact-checking these? I\u2019m not saying the computer is wrong, but it would be pretty easy for me to drop a stat like this into the ether, and everyone else would be like, Yeah, that sounds right.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Anyway, this one is infinitely more verifiable but similarly useless. I don\u2019t know what to do with the information that Klint Kubiak is the first head coach to begin the season 3\u20130 after his team had the No. 1 pick the previous season since Vince Lombardi. Similarly, I don\u2019t know what to do with the information that the previous two Raiders coaches to start their first season 3\u20130 were John Madden, who went to the AFC title game in that 1969 season, and Bill Callahan, when the Raiders made it to the Super Bowl in 2002.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Which is why I think a post on assessing the \u201csurprise\u201d teams through three weeks of the 2026 season is due. We can snack on AI-generated tidbits all we want about Kubiak and the Raiders, but we should dive into the circumstances by which this came to be a surprise and, through that exploration, decide whether it matters all that much. Along with the Raiders, we\u2019ll get into a few other teams in similar circumstances, though they won\u2019t all be 3\u20130.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m going to rate each team by the highly scientific \u201crealness\u201d rating. These teams are either \u201cextremely real,\u201d \u201cpretty darn real,\u201d \u201ca perfectly normal amount of real,\u201d \u201cnot all that real,\u201d or\u2014gasp\u2014\u201cnot real at all.\u201d Indeed, people who read this article all the way to the end boast a 68.7% chance of experiencing a moment of immense personal joy.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Onward \u2026<\/p>\n
Las Vegas Raiders (3\u20130)<\/p>\n
Realness: Pretty darn real\u00a0<\/p>\n
Why: Here\u2019s a wild statistic about the Raiders that I think matters. The Raiders\u2019 defense has forced eight fumbles and recovered one. That kind of luck differential doesn\u2019t seem to matter for a team that is maximizing its drives better than almost any other team in the NFL. Through three weeks, the Raiders have punted only 12 times, with a handful of those coming in garbage time. The Raiders have also scored on two of their three scripted drives at the beginning of the game. Las Vegas is one of the 10 teams most likely to end its drive in a touchdown so far this year, and while we\u2019re still operating with an incredibly small sample size and one of the Raiders\u2019 wins was against the Dolphins, a team that overwhelmingly has the highest odds to attain the No. 1 pick in 2027, what we saw on Sunday against a more formidable Saints team looks to be the Raiders we\u2019ll be getting for a majority of the year.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In Sunday\u2019s win, the Raiders became a 12-personnel team (one running back, two tight ends). That isn\u2019t all that surprising given that Brock Bowers returned and, if two of your five best offensive players are tight ends, you\u2019ll want them on the field together. But the Raiders won a game (Week 1) in which they were a majority 21-personnel team (a two-back, typically fullback-oriented offense) and a Week 2 game in which they were primarily an 11-personnel team (one running back, one tight end and three wideouts). Now that Bowers is on the field, and he played primarily as a wide receiver against the Saints, it gives the Raiders a kind of peak-49ers-like versatility that makes the team very difficult to prepare for. At the very least, we now know the Raiders aren\u2019t going to be run over. Having come into the week with the league\u2019s best pass-block win rate, Kirk Cousins will remain relatively comfortable in the pocket and, all of a sudden, projecting six wins out of the team\u2019s remaining schedule (without any real upsets) doesn\u2019t seem ridiculous whatsoever. The Raiders still have games with the Titans, Cardinals, Jets, Browns and the limping Patriots, and, oh by the way, the calling card of a true Kubiak tree offense\u2014the ground game\u2014hasn\u2019t even found its footing yet.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Defensively, the Raiders remind me of the 2025 Bears\u2019 offense in that they\u2019re enjoying health and peak performance from a handful of newly imported free agents. The Raiders\u2019 remake of their linebacking corps has been nothing short of transformative.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Pittsburgh Steelers (2\u20131)<\/p>\n
Realness: A perfectly normal amount of real<\/p>\n
Why: The Steelers are 2\u20131, and while we cannot in the same breath celebrate the Raiders\u2019 win over the Dolphins and completely discount a narrow Steelers victory over the Falcons in the opener, we can point out two very different circumstances in those games. Pittsburgh, for one, needed a miraculous defensive play to edge a really bad Cooper Rush\u2013led Falcons team. The Steelers deserve immense credit for dressing down a Bengals defense that came into this game in the top five in sacks, touchdowns allowed, passing touchdowns allowed, yards per game allowed and turnovers created. But we saw what is still possible\u2014and the defining upside\u2014of the Aaron Rodgers\u2013Mike McCarthy\u2013era Steelers: creating embarrassing coverage busts against the Bengals. The Cincinnati secondary was on ice skates, though I\u2019m almost certain Rodgers will never have pocket time like this again. Rodgers averaged a season-high 3.19 snap-to-throw time Sunday, and Jaylen Warren gouged the Bengals for 7.5 yards per carry. That allowed Rodgers to be more effective in play-action, which the Steelers used on more than 20% of his dropbacks for a 1.14 EPA per play. To McCarthy\u2019s credit specifically, some of the concepts he\u2019s been playing with\u2014like a Rams-ian, Seahawks-ian Ben Skowronek insert concept that created an open touchdown\u2014shows that the old ball coach can still dig into his bag and dial up some impressive shots.\u00a0<\/p>\n
DK Metcalf appearing to get over whatever was bothering him over the first two weeks of the season\u2014Pittsburgh had lost the most EPA per play to drops in the NFL to that point\u2014is also a major upgrade.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The debut of Max Iheanachor was encouraging, with the rookie offensive tackle allowing the lowest pressure percentage of any of Pittsburgh\u2019s offensive linemen on Sunday. If Iheanachor turns into a great drop-back anchor tackle, I may increase my optimism levels because giving the most arm-talented quarterback of his generation light-years of time in the pocket is a sound strategy if it\u2019s replicable.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
I\u2019m a little more muted in my praise at the moment because I want to see what a very old Steelers team looks like on short rest against a division rival in a suddenly-hostile environment (we\u2019ll get to that Week 4 game against the Browns in a moment) and then a matchup against a Colts team that could test Pittsburgh\u2019s so-far mediocre run defense, which is allowing above a 40% success rate to opponents this season.\u00a0<\/p>\n
That should give us a better sense of whether the perceived strengths of this team\u2014again, an offensive line that could be very, very good, and a pass rush that, so far, has a success rate about as high as the vaunted Vikings\u2014can hold up over a long period of time.\u00a0<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Deshaun Watson has played two of his best games as a Brown in back-to-back weeks. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect<\/p>\n
Cleveland Browns (2\u20131)<\/p>\n
Realness: Not all that real (yet)<\/p>\n
Why: I need to, for a moment, separate two things. The young core of this roster is potentially great. Mason Graham showed as much on Sunday in a win over the Panthers in which he was virtually unblockable. He registered seven pressures and two sacks, equally as masterful in the stunt game as he was against double teams. We can continue to go on and on about how Harold Fannin Jr., Austin Barber, Spencer Fano and Denzel Boston are making the leap, and we should. Todd Monken has done about as much weathering the team\u2019s existing culture woes and navigating some less-than-savory personnel situations than any coach I can remember (although we need to be careful, having once written similar odes to Mike Pettine, and other previous Browns head coaches).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
I also think it\u2019s fair to both acknowledge that we are coming off probably two of Deshaun Watson\u2019s three best games as a Brown\u2014which, you know, says something\u2014and wonder if this is a harbinger of what\u2019s to come, or a result of the Browns having not played a ton of teams particularly skilled pressuring the quarterback. Browns fans are going to accuse me of moving the goalpost on Watson, which is fair and true. Watson made a handful of tough plays on Sunday and, again, is looking more like the kind of quarterback Cleveland thought it was getting from Houston in the first place\u2014a willing play-extender who can escape a muddy pocket and get the ball to an open wide receiver, or, in a worst-case scenario, use his legs as an escape hatch.\u00a0<\/p>\n
But Cleveland is still in the top 10 in percentage of drives ending in a turnover and in the bottom seven in percentage of drives that result in at least one first down.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Over the first three weeks of the season, the Browns faced Carolina (24th), Jacksonville (25th) and Tampa Bay (26th), three of the lowest quarterback-pressure teams in the NFL. The Buccaneers blitz a lot, but the defense is disastrous and ineffective when it comes to actually getting home.\u00a0<\/p>\n
While I don\u2019t know that Pittsburgh poses any more of a challenge on that front\u2014Joe Burrow was sacked once Sunday, and the Steelers are 18th in pressure percentage\u2014Thursday night will be the kind of game, given its magnitude, stand-alone nature, and opponent, that will either prop up or undress the Watson comeback narrative over the long term.\u00a0<\/p>\n
It\u2019s also fair to wonder how much success Watson can have if he\u2019s asked to be the team\u2019s most consistently explosive rusher, too. Cleveland is operating at about a 4% rate of explosive runs this season, with the running game looking more in its developmental phase.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Again, this is not to take anything away from what Monken has accomplished. Sunday was supposed to be a statue-crumbling reckoning for a Browns fan base that was at its bitter end with Watson as a quarterback. Monken has made him watchable and, very specifically in terms of the on-field product, tolerable.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Minnesota Vikings (3\u20130)<\/p>\n
Realness: A perfectly normal amount of real\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
The Vikings are 3\u20130 and just logged a victory in Kyler Murray\u2019s first real game. Murray was \u2026 not great. The good? He can start stretching the field for the Vikings, who pushed the ball downfield a bit more than they did in the prior two games with Carson Wentz. We also don\u2019t exactly know what he can be, given that Justin Jefferson missed most of the game with an ankle injury. I don\u2019t want to point out Murray\u2019s passer rating on Sunday being in the bottom tier of his career starts to say it\u2019s a sign of bad things to come. However, I do want to point it out to say that a majority of Murray\u2019s sample size is much higher and the Vikings can probably count on better quarterback play in the coming weeks. Murray\u2019s nonchalance when addressing that at the podium, while not really a solid indicator beyond his personal confidence, was somewhat assuring.\u00a0<\/p>\n
That\u2019s why some of the statistics on Minnesota\u2019s outlier victory over Tampa Bay don\u2019t bother me. The two in particular, via Kevin Seifert of ESPN: The Vikings did not take a snap in the red zone on Sunday and won, the first time that happened to the team since 2007. And, the Vikings currently have a minus-244 net yard differential, the second-worst ever for a team that started the season 3\u20130. The other being the 2020 Seahawks who won 12 games and were ousted in the first round of the playoffs by the Rams.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The Vikings, though, are balancing an offense that is in limbo with the best defense in the NFL and one of the top special teams units in the NFL as well. Minnesota has gotten massive plays out of the special teams game, is holding opponents well below the 35-yard line for average drive start and consistently has one of the better starting field positions in the NFL. Will Reichard has been nails\u2014perfect on all field goals and extra points so far this season. As much credit as DC Brian Flores gets, special teams coordinator Matt Daniels is less talked about despite turning a unit that was among the worst in the NFL into a perennial top squad. The Vikings were 11th in EPA added via special teams in 2024, third in 2025 and are currently fifth.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Unlike the Steelers, for example, I still think we\u2019re buying low on the Vikings because it would be difficult to imagine the Vikings\u2019 offense finishing as one of the six worst in the NFL after typically resting more toward the middle of the pack in the Kevin O\u2019Connell era.\u00a0<\/p>\n
San Francisco 49ers (3\u20130)<\/p>\n
Realness: Not all that real<\/p>\n
It pains to say this: San Francisco\u2019s 3-0 start has seen a first-quarter MVP-caliber performance from Brock Purdy, even though San Francisco is becoming concerningly thin at nearly every important position. Nick Bosa, Trent Williams, Mike Evans and Dre Greenlaw are all now being evaluated for various injuries, though you could say that Williams returned to the sideline but was held out as a precaution and Greenlaw did come back into the game before being pulled again. Again, I loathe to do this, but it\u2019s so hard to view the 49ers as stable when Sunday\u2019s win over the Cardinals showed us how one bad week can wipe out nearly all of the remaining talent on this roster. With games against the Broncos and Seahawks upcoming, the idea that San Francisco can, in effect, hover around playoff contention until later in the season when Bosa can return and Evans will be healthy feels like a difficult projection to make. Through the first three weeks of the season, the 49ers have the highest third-down conversion rate over expected in the NFL. The team has been lights out in the red zone as well, and one would have to imagine both of those numbers returning to a median.\u00a0<\/p>\n
It\u2019s also hard to factor in the caliber of the opponent. The 49ers started the season against a Rams team hell-bent on not taking the Australia trip seriously, followed by matchups against the team that currently has a 47% chance of attaining the No. 1 pick, and a team in Arizona that is three rungs below Miami, with the fourth-highest projected odds of earning the No. 1 pick.\u00a0<\/p>\n
With Evans out, we\u2019ll see what happens to the offense\u2019s structure. As I wrote during free agency<\/a>, grabbing Evans was a calculated dart throw on a player who could take defenses out of loaded boxes and give Christian McCaffrey more room to run. With their top receiving threat now being Deebo Samuel, how much respect can they command from two of the best defensive opponents they\u2019ll face all year? And that\u2019s the other thing: San Francisco\u2019s rushing offense has been pretty good but not the lifeblood of the team. Again, Purdy is posting nearly double the total EPA added as the next best quarterbacks in the NFL. The 49ers\u2019 EPA per dropback is twice as good as Josh Allen and the Bills, thanks to an uncharacteristically bad Allen performance against the Chargers in Week 3. We have to expect that number to come back to earth, and with it, the reality that San Francisco will only continue to be as dominant as the injury report allows.\u00a0<\/p>\n Kansas City Chiefs (3\u20130)<\/p>\n Realness: Extremely real<\/p>\n
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