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LOS ANGELES (AP) \u2014 To become California\u2019s next governor, Republican Steve Hilton must conjure up a feat of political wizardry, the equivalent of pulling voters out of thin air in a state that hasn\u2019t elected a Republican to any statewide office in two decades.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019ve never said it\u2019s going to be easy,\u201d Hilton said in an interview with The Associated Press. \u201cIt\u2019s obviously an uphill battle. I still see this as a winnable race.\u201d<\/p>\n
With mail ballots scheduled to arrive at homes in early October, the former Fox News commentator<\/a> is angling to pull off what would be one of the great upsets in California record books against Democrat Xavier Becerra. Aligned against him in the heavily Democratic state are the weight of recent history, a national electorate that has soured on President Donald Trump<\/a> and, perhaps inescapably, basic math.<\/p>\n Any Republican starts at a disadvantage. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a staggering 4.6 million voters, a margin approaching 2-to-1 statewide. Trump \u2014 who has endorsed Hilton\u2019s candidacy<\/a> \u2014 is widely loathed outside his conservative base in a state the president often depicts as representing all that is wrong in America.<\/p>\n \u201cI like Steve a lot, but the math is very hard,\u201d says GOP consultant Mike Murphy, who advised the last Republican to hold the office, former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. He was elected to his second term in 2006.<\/p>\n \u201cI think the most relevant equation is how many cases of beer you have to drink to be drunk enough to think it\u2019s doable in this election cycle with the Trump dynamic and the registration advantage the Democrats have,\u201d Murphy wrote in an email. \u201cMy model starts at four cases.\u201d<\/p>\n A Democratic reckoning that has never come<\/p>\n For years, Republicans envisioned that one day the state\u2019s Democratic ribs would crack, as voters faithful to the brand grew weary of wallet-sapping taxes, the nation\u2019s top gas prices, an unchecked homeless crisis and home prices and rents that drain family budgets.<\/p>\n \u201cWe will win because the argument for change is irresistible,\u201d the Britain-born Hilton says.<\/p>\n To defeat Becerra<\/a>, Hilton will need to upend what has become a familiar pattern in California general elections. Frequently, Democratic statewide candidates pull in roughly 60% of the vote on Election Day. Rival Republicans, around 40%.<\/p>\n Part of Hilton’s challenge is overcoming the baked-in notion that California’s political DNA is immutable.<\/p>\n \u201cWe just need to overcome the sense that after 20 years of one party running everything, it is actually possible to get change. That\u2019s the biggest thing I think we\u2019re fighting against,\u201d Hilton said.<\/p>\n