Oddsmakers and I see the National League Division Series between the Padres and Brewers differently.<\/p>\n
While betting lines give the Brewers better than 60% odds to advance \u2014 meaning Milwaukee will build upon its MLB-best 103 victories and first-round bye \u2014 I see the Padres earning the three victories needed.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s why:<\/p>\n
The Padres, reflecting their much bigger payroll, are more talented than the Brewers. If that truth was obscured in the season\u2019s first half, it\u2019s evident now.<\/p>\n
Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. have solved their first-half hitting issues, making San Diego a much more capable team than it was through June.<\/p>\n
Home runs matter more in October. Advantage, Padres. Even with Tatis not homering until his 56th game, the Padres finished 14 spots ahead of the small-ball Brewers in home runs.<\/p>\n
Tatis adopted a timing mechanism this summer that has held up nicely, to the tune of 20 home runs over the final three months and a fast start to this postseason. A year after looking lost at Wrigley Field in the playoffs\u2019 first round, Tatis homered off the first pitch he saw Tuesday in the Wild Card Series opener, an 8-0 win over the Cubs.<\/p>\n
Machado finished with more home runs (30) than any Brewer, but not before going through a bewildering first half in terms of batting average and consistent hard contact. He has batted .253 since early July while also maintaining good power and walk production.<\/p>\n
Importantly, the 34-year-old Machado didn\u2019t allow the long season to overly weaken him. On the contrary. He recently got off perhaps his best swing as a Padre, crushing a Gerrit Cole fastball beyond center field to help beat the Yankees in a Sept. 6 game. Later in the month, Machado took Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto out to center field.<\/p>\n
Signaling his October readiness, Machado matched Tatis by homering off a changeup from Cubs lefty Matthew Boyd in the Wild Card Series opener\u2019s first inning, and followed with a run-scoring double off the right-center wall.<\/p>\n
Merrill\u2019s deep first-half slump left scouts puzzled.<\/p>\n
It didn\u2019t last. The third-year player hit 18 home runs over the season\u2019s final three months. Like Tatis, the 23-year-old center fielder continues to collect numerous infield hits.<\/p>\n
Dominant ace Jacob Misiorowski represents the Brewers\u2019 golden ticket and the Padres\u2019 greatest threat.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s well-rested going into Saturday\u2019s opener in Milwaukee, and would be on normal rest if the series returns to Wisconsin for Game 5.<\/p>\n
The Miz\u2019s fastball averages 100 mph. Its perceived speed is even greater, because the 6-foot-7 righty cuts loose almost 8 feet down the mound.<\/p>\n
So there will be moments of Miz-ery for Padres hitters.<\/p>\n
And unlike the Brewers, the Padres won\u2019t have their ace, Michael King, for Game 1. King pitched Tuesday, throwing seven scoreless innings.<\/p>\n
But the starting pitching challenges won\u2019t be enough to prevent the Padres from advancing to their fourth National League Championship Series and second under A.J. Preller.<\/p>\n
The Padres\u2019 bullpen, after shutting out the Cubs for 7 2\/3 innings in the Wild Card Series, will again create favorable matchups. Padres starters other than King will earn their pay by simply getting 10 to 15 outs without more than two runs allowed. And manager\/ex-reliever Craig Stammen seems unlikely to flub as flagrantly as Bob Melvin did in the 2022 NLCS, when he failed to call upon Josh Hader against Bryce Harper.<\/p>\n
Can the youthful Brewers win in the bonkers East Village, site of Game 3 and, if necessary, a Game 4? The Cubs trailed for 17 of the 18 innings there, losing by eight and three runs.<\/p>\n
Unlike most teams, the Padres are well-equipped to quell Milwaukee\u2019s formidable small-ball game.<\/p>\n
The Brewers run faster than most teams do and hit a lot of groundballs. They bunted for 32 hits, second out of 30 teams. Clever and daring, they exposed a lot of defenses\u2019 weaknesses.<\/p>\n
But the Padres can counter manager Pat Murphy\u2019s well-schooled tactics. San Diego boasts an all-time great third baseman in Machado, a Gold Glove first baseman in Ty France and a reliable, savvy middle-infield duo in Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth.<\/p>\n
In Tatis, they have a two-time winner of the Platinum Glove, denoting MLB\u2019s premier defender. Merrill earns high marks around the wall and for his throwing.<\/p>\n
Padres catchers have led the big leagues in combating stolen bases since early July, a span that coincides with their MLB-best 70-game stretch (45-25) that culminated in the playoff-clinching win last week at Dodger Stadium.<\/p>\n
The Brewers command great respect.<\/p>\n
They set MLB\u2019s bar with victories while operating out of the industry\u2019s smallest market.<\/p>\n
In honor of the Brew Crew, copious amounts of San Diego\u2019s many tasty craft beers should be made available to Murphy\u2019s team and Brewers fans who visit.<\/p>\n
But it\u2019ll be the Padres taking their third bubbly shower this fall, sending Machado and friends to either L.A. or Atlanta.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Oddsmakers and I see the National League Division Series between the Padres and Brewers differently. While betting lines…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":483364,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[181,1334,74,76,75,2611,127],"class_list":["post-483363","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-san-diego","tag-latest-headlines","tag-mlb","tag-san-diego","tag-san-diego-headlines","tag-san-diego-news","tag-san-diego-padres","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/483363","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=483363"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/483363\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/483364"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=483363"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=483363"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=483363"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}