A winter of potentially devastating weather driven by what scientists predict to be a massive El Ni\u00f1o event could strain many of California\u2019s TK-12 public schools, experts say, likely damaging aging structures and forcing school closures.<\/p>\n
The southern and central parts of the state are expected to be hit hard along with coastal areas, as they were in 2023 when mid-March storms forced the closure of at least 178 schools. Only this time, weather scientists predict El Ni\u00f1o could stress levees to the max, and even bring potential for tornadoes, along with torrential rains, mudslides, storm-driven tides and heavy winds.<\/p>\n
While district superintendents in especially vulnerable areas are already planning ahead, some schools may be ill-equipped to handle punishing weather. At least 59 California school districts are seeking voter approval for bonds in the November election, and have identified the need to repair or replace \u201cleaky,\u201d \u201cdilapidated\u201d and \u201cdecaying\u201d roofs, an EdSource examination of local ballot language shows.<\/p>\n
Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency on Sept.\u00a021, ordering pumps and sandbags to be stockpiled near vulnerable areas, among other precautions. Federal flood data show roughly 20% of the state\u2019s schools are located within flood plains. In 2023, heavy storms flooded schools in Alameda and Merced counties as well as one\u00a0near Watsonville, where a levee ruptured.<\/p>\n
\u201cClimate-driven El Ni\u00f1o conditions could mean months of dangerous weather, heavy rain, strong winds, deep mountain snow and flooding,\u201d Caroline Thomas Jacobs, director of the California Office of Emergency Services, said at a news conference, adding that the\u00a0public shouldn\u2019t underestimate \u201cthe power of water.\u201d<\/p>\n
Preparing for a severe El Ni\u00f1o<\/p>\n
As predictions of severe weather spread, there isn\u2019t a school superintendent in an area that the El Ni\u00f1o is predicted to impact \u201cthat hasn\u2019t been thinking about this for weeks already,\u201d said Scott Borba, executive director of the California Small School Districts Association. Many small districts have aging buildings \u2014 some as many as 75 years old, Borba said.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou\u2019ve got leaks and dry rot and all the things that a super wet winter is going to just exacerbate,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
While district leaders work with other local agencies during weather emergencies, they are largely\u00a0on their own when making major decisions, such as whether to cancel school, Borba said.<\/p>\n
\u201cSometimes you have some county office of emergency services\u2019 support. But when it comes to making that decision, that decision lies with the superintendent alone,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
One small school district leader who may soon be making such decisions is Raven Coit, the superintendent and principal of the 61-student TK-8 Peninsula Union School District on the south end of the Northern Humboldt Peninsula in Humboldt County. It\u2019s perhaps the most isolated coastal school in California, roughly 600 yards from the ocean. Dunes often serve as a play area for students.<\/p>\n
Coit took steps this year to try to limit storm damage. She had trees cut back and used money saved by deferring other projects to complete much-needed roof repairs. \u201cThere was a big storm that caused leaking. I\u2019m proud to say that it won\u2019t rain inside this year,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
But the likelihood of impacts from El Ni\u00f1o remains. The school\u2019s \u201cin a vulnerable spot,\u201d she said. Flooding could cut off access to the only road leading to the school. There\u2019s a backup generator that she\u2019s \u201ctrying to figure out if I can make it work.\u201d<\/p>\n
While nearly all the school\u2019s students live nearby, many teachers do not, and may not be able to get to work. Local high school students are bussed to Arcata on the mainland \u2014 if buses can get through.<\/p>\n
She said the school could also turn to remote learning in a crisis.<\/p>\n
How El Ni\u00f1o may impact schools in coastal areas<\/p>\n
One of the things that makes El Ni\u00f1os so dangerous in coastal areas like Coit\u2019s is that they are known in California for also causing rising tides known as Kelvin waves.<\/p>\n
They are slow moving, and can raise sea levels for weeks. Some could reach shore as early as October. At the same time, an astronomical phenomenon known as super king tides is expected from November to January, Danial Swain, a climate scientist with University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, said in an online presentation.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat would probably bring record-breaking coastal flooding this year.\u201d<\/p>\n
A worst-case scenario \u201cwould be an El Ni\u00f1o Kelvin, plus a peak king tide, plus a significant storm,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
A Southern California school leader of one of those districts said it\u2019s bracing for storms.<\/p>\n
Don Austin, superintendent of Laguna Beach Unified School District in Orange County, said that living on the coast, \u201cI have seen our beaches get washed away with recent storms and homes destroyed.\u201d<\/p>\n
His schools have \u201croof leaks and other issues that will be heavily impacted by an El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
The most impactful weather-driven damage to a California school in recent years was in March 2023 when a broken river levee caused the Pajaro Middle school near Watsonville to flood, along with the heavily Mexican immigrant and farmworker community it serves.<\/p>\n
The school reopened in 2024. A complete replacement of the entire levee by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers could take a decade, officials said.<\/p>\n
Mark Strudley, executive director of the Pajaro Regional Flood Management Agency, said the agency is spending roughly $1 million to strengthen the levee, and that the breach that led to the school flooding has been permanently repaired. El Ni\u00f1o, he said, is the obvious concern, and the work is aimed at protecting the town of Pajaro and the middle school.<\/p>\n
Leaders of the Pajaro Valley Unified School District remain concerned about El Ni\u00f1o, but haven\u2019t identified\u00a0a temporary site to move students to if the\u00a0school floods again, according to Peggy Pughe, the district\u2019s executive director of teaching and learning.<\/p>\n
Asked what the district officials are doing based on their experience with the 2023 floods and the threat of El Ni\u00f1o, Pughe said they are \u201ccanvassing local neighborhoods, encouraging families and residents to sign up for emergency alert services.\u201d<\/p>\n
Data journalist Daniel J. Willis and staff writer Emma Gallegos contributed to this story.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A winter of potentially devastating weather driven by what scientists predict to be a massive El Ni\u00f1o event…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":483988,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[7,643,181,100,180,266,143,145,144],"class_list":["post-483987","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-oakland","tag-california","tag-environment","tag-latest-headlines","tag-news","tag-newsletter","tag-northern-california","tag-oakland","tag-oakland-headlines","tag-oakland-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/483987","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=483987"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/483987\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/483988"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=483987"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=483987"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=483987"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}