Proponents claim<\/a>\u00a0the measure would prevent deep cuts at Caltrain and BART \u2014 the latter of which has warned<\/a> it might close 15 stations with a 70% service reduction if the proposed tax increase fails. But despite projecting a $15 million deficit by 2027<\/a>, VTA isn\u2019t hurting as much nor planning any reductions regardless of the measure passing or failing.<\/p>\n \u201cThe main impact is that, while VTA is financially stable now, your transit service would not get better if the measure doesn\u2019t pass,\u201d Sergio Lopez, chair of VTA\u2019s board of directors and a Campbell councilmember, told San Jos\u00e9 Spotlight. \u201cIt\u2019s kind of a double negative. We have the opportunity to make improvements that are not the case in other counties (if the measure passes). It\u2019s really much more than just holding still and this would really unlock a lot of possibilities.\u201d<\/p>\n The other two transit agencies serving Santa Clara County are facing more immediate shortfalls, with Caltrain anticipating a $75 million deficit in the coming fiscal year starting next July, while BART expects a $370 million gap in funds.<\/p>\n Caltrain, with commuter rail service stretching from San Francisco in the north to Gilroy in the south, has predicted extensive cutbacks<\/a> starting next summer if the sales tax increase fails. This would include reducing peak weekday service from every 15 minutes to once an hour, ending service at 9 p.m. instead of 1 a.m., closing more than one-third of stations and eliminating weekend service.<\/p>\n \u201cThe service to South County (from San Jose through Morgan Hill to Gilroy) would very much be on the table because it has far and away the highest subsidy per passenger, due to low ridership,\u201d Pat Burt, VTA\u2019s representative on Caltrain\u2019s board and a Palo Alto councilmember, told San Jos\u00e9 Spotlight.<\/p>\n Menlo Park resident Masato Taketomi said he would miss Caltrain\u2019s weekend service as he waited at the Sunnyvale station on Sunday for a northbound ride for himself and his bicycle to Foster City.<\/p>\n \u201cI love Caltrain very much compared to Uber and other forms of transportation,\u201d Taketomi told San Jos\u00e9 Spotlight. \u201cTrains have character.\u201d<\/p>\n BART\u00a0is also forecasting big cuts<\/a> if the regional transit measure fails: Reducing train operating hours by 70% starting next summer, along with a 50% fare increase, closing 15 stations and reducing the length of the system by 25%.<\/p>\n The two BART stations in Santa Clara County \u2014 Milpitas and Berryessa\/North San Jose \u2014 are operated by VTA and are unlikely to be affected if the measure fails. The $13 billion project to extend BART to downtown San Jose and Santa Clara<\/a> would not receive any money from the transit measure.<\/p>\n But opponents such as the Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit<\/a> accuse the transit agencies of exaggerating the impact of budget cuts instead of better managing funds.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s the transit boards giving their worst case,\u201d Thunder Parlay, a committee officer and San Jose resident who said he regularly rides VTA buses, told San Jos\u00e9 Spotlight. \u201cThey\u2019re not approaching it from (the perspective of) how to manage their chunk of the $6.2 billion that the agencies will continue to get from existing sources. They\u2019re acting like they\u2019ll be devastatingly broke (if the measure fails), which on that basis is kind of insane.\u201d<\/p>\n Parlay cites Caltrain\u2019s South County service as an example of transit inefficiency, which he said subsidizes riders<\/a> at a cost of about $40,000 each per year.<\/p>\n \u201cIn the first year, we could buy everybody an electric vehicle and they could drive it,\u201d he said. \u201cThe cost is just out of balance.\u201d<\/p>\n Supporters of the measure counter that transit cuts will increase the number of cars on the road, making traffic jams worse. A SPUR study released last month<\/a> said the evening commute on the Bay Bridge could take 43 minutes longer than today, although all of the eight bottlenecks cited in the report are well north of Santa Clara County.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s not easy,\u201d Adam Cohen, a senior researcher at the Mineta Transportation Institute at San Jose State University, told San Jos\u00e9 Spotlight regarding the measure\u2019s impact. \u201cVoters are going to have to trust their gut one way or another.\u201d<\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Caltrain-rider-1024x768.jpg\")
Caltrain rider Masato Taketomi waits for a northbound train at the Sunnyvale station on Oct. 4, 2026. Photo by Mike Langberg.<\/p>\n![\"In-line](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/1791411969_383_interactive-321838904008.png\")
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