\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tArticle Content<\/p>\n
UC San Diego and the County of San Diego have teamed up to forecast hospitalizations for flu, COVID-19 and RSV, helping hospitals prepare for surges.<\/p>\n
The forecasts are now part of the County\u2019s updated respiratory virus report, which also tracks infections and emergency department visits.<\/p>\n
Flu activity is rising unusually early in San Diego County this year, underscoring the importance of getting vaccinated.<\/p>\n
A partnership between the University of California San Diego and the County of San Diego is helping local hospitals prepare for respiratory virus surges with new forecasts of hospitalizations for flu, COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).<\/p>\n
Developed through Resilient Shield, an initiative to improve public health decision-making and response to disease outbreaks, the forecasts are now featured in the County\u2019s revised Respiratory Virus Surveillance Report. The team uses local hospitalization data to project admissions over the next two weeks, giving hospitals and other health care partners an indication of whether admissions are likely to rise or fall.<\/p>\n
\u201cPublic health officials and hospitals need to know both what is happening now and what may be coming next,\u201d said Eliah Aronoff-Spencer, MD, PhD, head of Resilient Shield, professor of medicine at UC San Diego School of Medicine, faculty in the university\u2019s Design Lab and affiliate of UC San Diego Qualcomm Institute. \u201cWorking directly with our county partners helps us focus our research on the challenges they need to address. Here, that means helping hospitals anticipate a surge before it reaches their doors.\u201d<\/p>\n
The tools arrive as the County reports an unusually early increase in seasonal flu activity.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe addition of the forecast to the Respiratory Surveillance report is another advance for public health created as part of the collaboration,\u201d said Seema Shah, MD, MPH, medical director of County Epidemiology and Immunization Services.<\/p>\n
A clearer picture of respiratory illness<\/p>\n
The revised report from County Public Health Services is available\u00a0online<\/a>\u00a0and as a\u00a0downloadable PDF<\/a>. Graphics at the top offer a snapshot of respiratory virus activity across the region, with details on the percentage of tests that are positive and emergency department visits for COVID-19, flu and RSV. Forecasts appear farther down in the report.<\/p>\n The County is resuming weekly reporting as flu season begins.<\/p>\n Resilient Shield,part of the Insight Net network\u00a0funded by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention\u2019s Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics, draws on expertise from multiple universities, national laboratories and public health agencies to develop tools that help communities prepare for and respond to disease outbreaks.<\/p>\n The new forecasts build on earlier work through the Resilient Shield partnership with the County of San Diego. Last year, the collaboration produced an\u00a0interactive dashboard<\/a>\u00a0that combines environmental data sources to help South Bay residents understand the Tijuana River Valley sewage crisis. The partnership has also helped guide the County\u2019s surveillance of the New World screwworm threat.<\/p>\n An early rise in flu activity<\/p>\n The County\u2019s October 8 report shows that 8.0% of flu tests were positive during the week ending October 3, with 58 flu-associated hospitalizations that week. Since the surveillance season began July 5, the County has recorded 262 flu-associated hospitalizations and eight reported deaths.<\/p>\n \u201cIt is vital that if you haven\u2019t gotten the flu shot or if you\u2019ve been thinking about it to make the appointment or walk in as soon as possible,\u201d County Public Health Officer Sayone Thihalolipavan, MD, MPH, said. \u201cThe vaccine looks like it will be highly effective against the strain of flu now circulating.\u201d<\/p>\n Flu season generally starts around October 1, with health care providers typically urging vaccination by Halloween. In San Diego County, activity often increases in mid-November, though the timing varies from year to year.<\/p>\n Flu vaccines are available through health care providers and, for people who are uninsured, the County\u2019s public health clinics. More information is available on the\u00a0Public Health Services Immunization Unit website<\/a>.<\/p>\n Additional information about Resilient Shield, part of CDC\u2019s\u00a0Insight Net<\/a>, is available on the Resilient Shield website<\/a>.<\/p>\n Read more news about: School of Medicine<\/a>, <\/p>\n \t\tHealth Sciences<\/a>, <\/p>\n