{"id":506721,"date":"2026-10-24T16:44:12","date_gmt":"2026-10-24T16:44:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/506721\/"},"modified":"2026-10-24T16:44:12","modified_gmt":"2026-10-24T16:44:12","slug":"sacramento-state-vs-ball-state-prediction-best-bets-college-football-picks-predictions-saturday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/506721\/","title":{"rendered":"Sacramento State vs. Ball State prediction, best bets: College football picks, predictions Saturday"},"content":{"rendered":"

\tGambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our links. Read our editorial standards<\/a> for more information.<\/p>\n

Make it two in a row for our \u201cUgly Underdogs.\u201d Not only did Florida State easily cover the three-score spread<\/a> against newly minted No. 1 Miami<\/a> in Week 7, but the Seminoles gave the Hurricanes all they could handle in a controversial double-overtime defeat. We will shift gears entirely this week, as we go from what was one of the most entertaining games of the season to one that will almost certainly be the opposite. But I can\u2019t get over one thing: Somehow, Ball State is a 14.5-point favorite over another FBS team in Week 8.<\/p>\n

Make no doubt about it, Saturday\u2019s showdown between Ball State (2-5) and Sacramento State (1-6) is likely to go down as the ugliest game in college football<\/a> this season.<\/p>\n

And it\u2019s not just because of the ineptitude of the two combatants, but more that one of these terrible two has been so poor that they\u2019re\u00a0actually a 14.5-point underdog against the other, who just happens to be ranked No. 131 (of 138) in the latest SP+ rankings.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s right. Ball State, which is 2-5 overall and 1-5 against FBS opponents, is laying 14.5 points against Sacramento State in beautiful Muncie, Ind., on Saturday afternoon.<\/p>\n

How did we get here?<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard to express just how bad things have gone for Sacramento State in their first year at the FBS level. <\/p>\n

The Hornets were hardly an FCS powerhouse in recent years, but the school was so adamant about leaping to the big leagues that they agreed to join the MAC, which stands for the Mid-American Conference and was, until Sacramento State joined, solely comprised of teams from the Great Lakes Region.<\/p>\n

The move hasn\u2019t paid off.<\/p>\n

Sacramento State is 0-6 against FBS opponents this season. Its average margin of defeat in those games is 29.3 points. And the Hornets have suffered two defeats by at least 40 points, including to Ohio last week. It was homecoming.<\/p>\n

That sounds like plenty of reason to put the Hornets on your betting blacklist and not think about them until August, but that just isn\u2019t how things work around these parts.<\/p>\n

\"BallBall State Cardinals quarterback Keldric Luster (6) throws the ball during the third quarter of a college football game against the Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois, Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026. Getty Images<\/p>\n

As much as the idea of betting on Sacramento State may twist your guts, I\u2019d argue that laying two touchdowns with Ball State is even more repulsive.<\/p>\n

The Cardinals do have a win in their account in 2026 \u2014 it came in overtime against Bowling Green last time out \u2014 but they\u2019ve been dreadful this season (and I say that with the utmost respect. Ball State did come through for us by covering the 36.5-point spread against Northwestern in Week 6<\/a>).<\/p>\n

The Cardinals are allowing 41.3 points per game (134th in FBS), 6.8 yards per play (131st) and 9.2 yards per pass (135th). Overall, Ball State grades out as the 135th-best defense in FBS, per SP+.<\/p>\n

Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps<\/p>\n

Even Sacramento State\u2019s terrible offense should be able to find some points against this bunch. <\/p>\n

We\u2019re not looking for the Hornets to dominate, or even go toe-to-toe with, Ball State on Saturday. We just need them to keep it within 14 points against the 131st-best team in FBS.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s not asking too much, right?<\/p>\n

The Play: Sacramento State +14.5 (-105, DraftKings<\/a>)<\/p>\n

Why Trust New York Post Betting<\/p>\n

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Gambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":506722,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32],"tags":[3256,1321,9360,121,123,122,127,6372,39285],"class_list":["post-506721","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-sacramento","tag-betting","tag-college-football","tag-college-football-betting","tag-sacramento","tag-sacramento-headlines","tag-sacramento-news","tag-sports","tag-sports-betting","tag-sports-picks"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/506721","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=506721"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/506721\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/506722"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=506721"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=506721"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=506721"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}