University of Southern California survey (opens in new tab)<\/a>. Shared exclusively with The Standard, it is the only independent poll that has been released and shows that the Nov. 3 race remains a tossup.<\/p>\nPelosi has campaigned heavily for Chan since endorsing her last spring. But voters who view Pelosi favorably aren\u2019t flocking to Chan. Instead, pollsters concluded, Pelosi\u2019s base is \u201csplitting their votes,\u201d with Wiener winning a slight majority who approve of the outgoing congresswoman.<\/p>\n
That paradox highlights a possible disconnect between Pelosi and Chan\u2019s bases, said Christian Grose, a political science professor at USC and the lead pollster. Although both women are close allies of the labor movement, the former speaker is less popular among ultra-progressive voters who are the backbone of Chan\u2019s coalition, while Wiener is viewed as a more establishment Democrat.<\/p>\n
\u201cPelosi has endorsed the person who has far left support \u2026 so her endorsement is not translating to Chan support,\u201d Grose said. \u201cOn the other hand, Chan might be losing by a lot without the endorsement.\u201d<\/p>\n
While Wiener holds a slight edge even among Pelosi fans, Grose stressed that his lead is within the survey\u2019s margin of error \u2014 with less than two weeks until Election Day.<\/p>\n
\u201cOn toplines, it looks like Wiener is in the right place to win,\u201d Grose said. \u201cI wouldn\u2019t rule her out, but I would rather be Scott Wiener than Connie Chan based on these results.\u201d<\/p>\n
The survey shows that Wiener\u2019s support is strongest among voters who strictly identify as Democrats, while support for Chan is strongest among independents and those who identify as \u201cvery liberal\u201d or supporters of the Democratic Socialists of America.<\/p>\n
Income level is another clear dividing line. Wiener\u2019s support is greatest among voters with annual income of more than $100,000. Chan is more popular among voters with lower incomes, including those who self-identify as \u201cworking class.\u201d<\/p>\n
Those fractures closely mirror Wiener and Chan\u2019s ideological divide. Wiener is considered a moderate Democrat, at least by San Francisco standards, and has campaigned heavily on his record of passing pro-housing legislation in Sacramento. Chan hails from the city\u2019s progressive camp, and she\u2019s closely aligning herself with labor unions and liberal activists who argue that Wiener is too close to business interests.<\/p>\n
Grose said those ideological and demographic splits likely work in Wiener\u2019s favor, noting that higher-income people and Democrats are more likely to vote in a non-presidential year.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe\u2019s drawing support from the kinds of people who tend to vote in midterm elections and who tend to have higher turnout in general,\u201d Grose said. \u201cHer base seems to be really progressive, very liberal.\u201d<\/p>\n
The poll, conducted by USC\u2019s Democracy and Fair Elections Lab, surveyed 454 likely voters via email in English, Chinese, Spanish, Korean, and Vietnamese. The survey was conducted in the field Oct. 16-19, and its margin of error is plus\/minus 4.6%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Nancy Pelosi remains popular with voters in the San Francisco district she has represented in Congress for nearly…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":506890,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[101,103,102,104,106,105],"class_list":["post-506889","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-san-francisco","tag-san-francisco","tag-san-francisco-headlines","tag-san-francisco-news","tag-sf","tag-sf-headlines","tag-sf-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/506889","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=506889"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/506889\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/506890"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=506889"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=506889"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=506889"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}