The Pac-12 dodged the mayhem that walloped conferences across the country the past two weekends.<\/p>\n
As undefeated teams tumbled and title favorites flopped, Boise State and Oregon State held their positions as the frontrunners for the Pac-12 championship and a potential berth in the College Football Playoff.<\/p>\n
One Saturday remains before the first CFP rankings are released Nov. 3. If the Broncos handle Texas State at home and the Beavers win at Fresno State \u2014 it\u2019s their toughest assignment since conference play began \u2014 at least one, if not both, will receive consideration for a spot in the selection committee\u2019s top 25.<\/p>\n
For the moment, the American\u2019s UTSA is the highest-ranked team in ESPN\u2019s strength-of-record (SOR), an important data point that mirrors the private version used by the selection committee.<\/p>\n
SOR measures how a given team performs against its schedule compared to how an average Top 25 team would fare against the same schedule. It offers the committee a means of comparing teams with similar records but no head-to-head results.<\/p>\n
UTSA is ranked 23rd in the SOR metric, one spot ahead of Boise State. The Roadrunners have one loss: by 24 points at Texas, while the Broncos\u2019 lone defeat was by seven points at Oregon. The teams\u2019 strength-of-schedule rankings are comparable.<\/p>\n
(Notably, UTSA\u2019s toughest remaining game, against North Texas, is the same day, Nov. 14, as the Boise State-Oregon State showdown.)<\/p>\n
Only No. 34 New Mexico, the Mountain West frontrunner, and No. 39 James Madison, from the Sun Belt, are close to UTSA and Boise State in the SOR rankings.<\/p>\n
Then comes No. 45 Louisiana Tech (Sun Belt), No. 47 North Texas (American) and No. 49 Liberty (Conference USA).<\/p>\n
The Beavers are 50th, which reflects their weak collection of victories. Of course, that will change if they defeat Fresno State, Texas State and Boise State in the upcoming triple whammy.<\/p>\n
Which scenario would best position the Pac-12 for the berth in the CFP reserved for the top team in the Group of Six?<\/p>\n
It\u2019s possible the conference would be well served by Oregon State winning out and Boise State losing only to the Beavers.<\/p>\n
That would result in a matchup of 10-2 teams for the conference title, placing the winner, whether it\u2019s the Broncos or Beavers, in prime position for the playoff bid.<\/p>\n
Granted, the results in the American and Mountain West in coming weeks will shape the Group of Six landscape.<\/p>\n
But given the lunacy across the country \u2014 not to mention the plot twist currently unfolding 45 miles south of Corvallis \u2014 the Pac-12 should consider itself fortunate.<\/p>\n
To the power rankings:<\/p>\n
(All times Pacific)<\/p>\n
1. Boise State (6-1, 3-0)<\/p>\n
Result: Won at Washington State, 31-10<\/p>\n
Next up:\u00a0vs. Texas State (7 p.m. on The CW)<\/p>\n
Comment:\u00a0Remember back in September, when we described the result at Oregon as a quality loss that would strengthen the Broncos\u2019 resume in much the same fashion as the narrow defeat in Eugene in 2024? Never mind.\u00a0(Last week: 1)<\/p>\n
2. Oregon State (5-2, 3-0)<\/p>\n
Result: Did not play<\/p>\n
Next up:\u00a0at Fresno State (8 p.m. on USA Network)<\/p>\n
Comment:\u00a0Texas Tech and Houston did Oregon State no favors Saturday with their losses. If the Beavers end up in a resume showdown for a playoff berth with the best team in the American or Mountain West, they would benefit from claiming a close defeat to a Big 12 playoff-bound team. That scenario is less likely than it was a few days ago.\u00a0(Last week: 2)<\/p>\n
3. Fresno State (4-3, 1-2)<\/p>\n
Result: Did not play<\/p>\n
Next up:\u00a0vs. Oregon State (8 p.m. on USA Network)<\/p>\n
Comment:\u00a0The Bulldogs\u2019 pass defense is statistically average compared to the other 137 FBS teams. There is nothing average about Oregon State\u2019s aerial attack.\u00a0(Last week: 3)<\/p>\n
4. Colorado State (3-4, 1-2)<\/p>\n