I once read somewhere that 42% of an NFL team\u2019s regular-season record can be accounted for by randomness, or sample error, to be clear.<\/p>\n
Imagine flipping a coin 10 times. It usually doesn\u2019t land on heads and tails five times each. In fact, it only happens 24% of the time (I\u2019ll spare you the math). But if you flipped the coin an infinite number of times, the rate would be closer to a 50-50 split.<\/p>\n
A small sample size usually produces a large sample error.<\/p>\n
An NFL team only plays 17 games in the regular season, most likely because the NFL Players Association rejected the owners\u2019 proposal of an infinite schedule, where the NFL plays every day of every week until the end of time.<\/p>\n
The owners just absolutely refuse to budge on guaranteed contracts.<\/p>\n
So as fantasy enthusiasts, we have to roll with the random punches, and the easiest way to do that is to have a process that governs your decisions on a weekly basis.<\/p>\n
Last week\u2019s lineup was bitten by the randomness bug, hard.<\/p>\n
I paid up at quarterback in a search for a high ceiling, but Lamar Jackson regressed against the blitz and only did enough to beat the Vikings. His 2x return-on-investment was half of what we needed.<\/p>\n
Both Rico Dowdle and Amon-Ra St. Brown were in smash spots, but they followed Jackson\u2019s lead.<\/p>\n
The most random aspect of Week 10 though, had to be the Dolphins destroying the Bills 30-13. After the game, Josh Allen was quick to point out his own mistakes, taking full responsibility for the loss. That\u2019s what a franchise QB is supposed to do.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m taking a play out of the reigning MVP\u2019s playbook this week. Last week wasn\u2019t good enough. So I\u2019m staying true to my process.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m back to searching for upside, and no one has a higher ceiling than Allen, especially after being embarrassed the week before.<\/p>\n
The preamble<\/p>\n
Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I\u2019m here weekly to assist.<\/p>\n
On DraftKings, it\u2019s important to remember you\u2019re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.<\/p>\n
Here is my optimal lineup for today\u2019s NFL $2.5 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.<\/p>\n
All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.<\/p>\n
The optimal lineup has netted $120 this season, so I\u2019m in the red $65 with an average score of 136.03 points through 10 weeks.<\/p>\n
Year-To-Date Results<\/p>\n
Week 1: 95.52<\/p>\n
Week 2: 124.90<\/p>\n
Week 3: 181.44<\/p>\n
Week 4: 142.88<\/p>\n
Week 5: 162.24<\/p>\n
Week 6: 117.24<\/p>\n
Week 7: 116.46<\/p>\n
Week 8: 158.26<\/p>\n
Week 9: 146.94<\/p>\n
Week 10: 114.44<\/p>\n
Week 11 lineup<\/p>\n
QB: Josh Allen, Bills ($7,000)<\/p>\n
Allen took responsibility for the loss last week, but he was fine in fantasy. He earned 24.34 DraftKings points by throwing for 306 yards and two touchdowns. The Bills\u2019 loss was a classic letdown game after beating the Chiefs in Week 9. This week\u2019s matchup against a good Buccaneers team is close to a must-win, considering how well the Patriots are playing these days. I\u2019m anticipating a big bounce-back performance by Allen and the Bills at home.<\/p>\n
RB: Josh Jacobs, Packers ($7,800)<\/p>\n
Green Bay\u2019s offense has looked terrible the last two games, and a matchup against the Giants is exactly what the doctor ordered. Here\u2019s a chance for the Packers to reestablish their identity of a run-oriented team with a stellar defense. The G-Men are allowing an NFL-worst 5.7 yards per carry. Jacobs comes into this game off the injury report for the first time since Week 6, and he has at least one rushing TD in eight of nine games this season.<\/p>\n
RB: Chase Brown, Bengals ($5,700)<\/p>\n
With Samaje Perine out (ankle) this week, Brown will likely return to last year\u2019s role as a near every-down back, where he produced four games with at least 23 DK points.<\/p>\n
WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks ($8,900)<\/p>\n
Smith-Njigba has the eighth most receiving yards (1,041) in NFL history through nine games, while ranking 74th in the NFL in routes per game. What if the Rams push the game environment at home and force Seattle to play catch-up? Also, the Rams\u2019 secondary is a weak link on an otherwise dominant defense. Get your popcorn ready.<\/p>\n
WR: Justin Jefferson, Vikings ($7,500)<\/p>\n