{"id":55838,"date":"2025-11-16T16:29:12","date_gmt":"2025-11-16T16:29:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/55838\/"},"modified":"2025-11-16T16:29:12","modified_gmt":"2025-11-16T16:29:12","slug":"is-newsom-democrats-2028-frontrunner-or-a-flash-in-the-pan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/55838\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Newsom Democrats’ 2028 frontrunner or a flash in the pan?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The 2028 presidential election is more than 1,000 days away, but you\u2019d hardly know it from all the speculation and anticipation <\/a>that\u2019s swirling from Sacramento to the Washington Beltway.<\/p>\n

Standing at the center of attention is California Gov. Gavin Newsom<\/a>, fresh off his big victory on Proposition 50<\/a>, the backatcha ballot measure<\/a> that gerrymandered the state\u2019s congressional map<\/a> to boost Democrats and offset a power grab by Texas Republicans<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Newsom is bidding for the White House<\/a>, and has been doing so for the better part of a year<\/a>, though he won\u2019t say so out loud<\/a>. Is Newsom the Democratic front-runner or a mere flash in the pan<\/a>?<\/p>\n

Times columnists Anita Chabria<\/a> and Mark Z. Barabak<\/a> disagree on Newsom\u2019s presidential prospects, and more. Here the two hash out some of their differences.<\/p>\n

Barabak: So is the presidential race over, Anita? Should I just spend the next few years backpacking and snowboarding in the Sierra<\/a> and return in January 2029 to watch Newsom iterate, meet the moment and, with intentionality, be sworn in as our nation\u2019s 48th president?<\/p>\n

Chabria: You should definitely spend as much time in the Sierra as possible, but I have no idea if Newsom will be elected president in 2028 or not. That\u2019s about a million light-years away in political terms. But I think he has a shot, and is the front-runner for the nomination right now. He\u2019s set himself up as the quick-to-punch foil<\/a> to President Trump, and increasingly as the leader of the Democratic Party. Last week, he visited Brazil for a climate summit <\/a>that Trump ghosted<\/a>, making Newsom the American presence. <\/p>\n

And in a recent (albeit small) poll<\/a>, in a hypothetical race against JD Vance<\/a>, the current Republican favorite, Newsom lead by three points. Though, unexpectedly, respondents still picked Kamala Harris<\/a> as their choice for the nomination. <\/p>\n

To me, that shows he\u2019s popular across the country. But you\u2019ve warned that Californians have a tough time <\/a>pulling voters in other states. Do you think his Golden State roots will kill off his contender status?<\/p>\n

Barabak: I make no predictions. I\u2019m smart enough to know that I\u2019m not smart enough to know<\/a>. And, after 2016 and the election of Trump<\/a>, the words \u201ccan\u2019t,\u201d \u201cnot,\u201d \u201cwon\u2019t,\u201d \u201cnever ever\u201d are permanently stricken from my political vocabulary.<\/p>\n

That said, I wouldn\u2019t stake more than a penny \u2014 which may eventually be worth something, as they\u2019re phased out of our currency<\/a> \u2014 on Newsom\u2019s chances.<\/p>\n

Look, I yield to no one in my love of California<\/a>. (And I\u2019ve got the Golden State tats to prove it.) But I\u2019m mindful of how the rest of the country views the state and those politicians who bear a California return address. You can be sure whoever runs against Newsom \u2014 and I\u2019m talking about his fellow Democrats, not just Republicans \u2014 will have a great deal to say about the state\u2019s much-higher-than-elsewhere housing<\/a>, grocery<\/a> and gas prices<\/a> and our shameful rates of poverty<\/a> and homelessness<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Not a great look for Newsom, especially when affordability is all the political rage<\/a> these days. <\/p>\n

And while I understand the governor\u2019s appeal \u2014 Fight! Fight! Fight! \u2014 I liken it to the fleeting fancy that, for a time, made attorney, convicted swindler<\/a> and rhetorical battering ram<\/a> Michael Avenatti seriously discussed<\/a> as a Democratic presidential contender. At a certain point \u2014 and we\u2019re still years away \u2014 people will assess the candidates with their head, not viscera.<\/p>\n

As for the polling, ask Edmund Muskie, Gary Hart or Hillary Clinton <\/a>how much those soundings matter at this exceedingly early stage of a presidential race. Well, you can\u2019t ask Muskie, because the former Maine senator is dead<\/a>. But all three were early front-runners who failed to win the Democratic nomination.<\/p>\n

Chabria: I don\u2019t argue the historical case against the Golden State, but I will argue that these are different days. People don\u2019t vote with their heads. Fight me on that. <\/p>\n

They vote on charisma, tribalism, and maybe some hope and fear. They vote on issues as social media explains them. They vote on memes<\/a>. <\/p>\n

There no reality in which our next president is rationally evaluated on their record \u2014 our current president has a criminal one<\/a> and that didn\u2019t make a difference. <\/p>\n

But I do think, as we\u2019ve talked about ad nauseam, that democracy is in peril<\/a>. Trump has threatened to run for a third term and recently lamented that his Cabinet<\/a> doesn\u2019t show him the same kind of fear that Chinese President Xi Jinping gets from his top advisers. And Vance, should he get the chance to run, has made it clear he\u2019s a Christian nationalist<\/a> who would like to deport nearly every immigrant he can catch, legal or not<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Being a Californian may not be the drawback it\u2019s historically been, especially if Trump\u2019s authoritarianism<\/a> continues and this state remains the symbol of resistance<\/a>. <\/p>\n

But our governor does have an immediate scandal to contend with. His former chief of staff, Dana Williamson, was just arrested on federal corruption charges<\/a>. Do you think that hurts him?<\/p>\n

Barabak: It shouldn\u2019t. <\/p>\n

There\u2019s no evidence of wrongdoing on Newsom\u2019s part. His opponents will try the guilt-by-association thing. Some already have. But unless something damning surfaces, there\u2019s no reason the governor should be punished for the alleged wrongdoing of Williamson<\/a> or others charged in the case.<\/p>\n

But let\u2019s go back to 2028 and the presidential race. I think one of our fundamental disagreements is that I believe people do very much evaluate a candidate\u2019s ideas and records. Not in granular fashion, or the way some chin-stroking political scientist might. But voters do want to know how and whether a candidate can materially improve their lives.<\/p>\n

There are, of course, a great many who\u2019d reflexively support Donald Trump, or Donald Duck<\/a> for that matter, if he\u2019s the Republican nominee. Same goes for Democrats who\u2019d vote for Gavin Newsom or Gavin Floyd, if either were the party\u2019s nominee. (While Newsom played baseball in college, Floyd pitched 13 seasons in the major leagues, so he\u2019s got that advantage over the governor.)<\/p>\n

But I\u2019m talking about those voters who are up for grabs \u2014 the ones who decide competitive races \u2014 who make a very rational decision based on their lives and livelihoods and which candidate they believe will benefit them most.<\/p>\n

Granted, the dynamic is a bit different in a primary contest. But even then, we\u2019ve seen time and again the whole dated\/married phenomenon. As in 2004, when a lot of Democrats \u201cdated\u201d Howard Dean<\/a> early in the primary season but \u201cmarried\u201d John Kerry<\/a>. I see electability<\/a> \u2014 as in the perception of which Democrat can win the general election \u2014 being right up there alongside affordability when it comes time for primary voters to make their 2028 pick.<\/p>\n

Chabria: No doubt affordability will be a huge issue, especially if consumer confidence continues to plummet<\/a>. And we are sure to hear criticisms of California, many of which are fair, as you point out. Housing costs too much<\/a>, homelessness remains intractable<\/a>. <\/p>\n

But these are also problems across the United States, and require deeper fixes than even this economically powerful state<\/a> can handle alone. More than past record, future vision is going to matter. What\u2019s the plan? <\/p>\n

It can\u2019t be vague tax credits<\/a> or even student loan forgiveness<\/a>. We need a concrete vision for an economy that brings not just more of the basics like homes, but the kind of long-term economic stability \u2014 higher wages, good schools, living-wage jobs \u2014 that makes the middle class stronger and attainable<\/a>. <\/p>\n

The Democrat who can lay out that vision while simultaneously continuing to battle the authoritarian creep<\/a> currently eating our democracy will, in my humble opinion, be the one voters choose, regardless of origin story. After all, it was that message of change with hope that gave us President Obama<\/a>, another candidate many considered a long shot at first<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Mark, are there any 2028 prospects you\u2019re keeping a particularly close eye on?<\/p>\n

Barabak: I\u2019m taking things one election at a time, starting with the 2026 midterms<\/a>, which include an open-seat race for governor <\/a>here in California. The results in November 2026 will go a long way toward shaping the dynamic in November 2028. That said, there\u2019s no shortage of Democrats eyeing the race \u2014 too many to list here. Will the number surpass the 29 major Democrats who ran in 2020? We\u2019ll see.<\/p>\n

I do agree with you that, to stand any chance of winning in 2028, whomever Democrats nominate will have to offer some serious and substantive ideas on how to make people\u2019s lives materially better. Imperiled democracy and scary authoritarianism aside, it\u2019s still the economy, stupid.<\/p>\n

Which brings us full circle, back to our gallivanting governor<\/a>. He may be winning fans and building his national fundraising base with his snippy memes and zippy Trump put-downs. But even if he gets past the built-in anti-California bias among so many voters outside our blessed state, he\u2019s not going to snark his way to the White House<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I\u2019d wager more than a penny on that.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The 2028 presidential election is more than 1,000 days away, but you\u2019d hardly know it from all the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":55839,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[29736,34667,7,13540,34668,2575,34669,943,48,52,51,47,50,49,34666,34665,592,3020,5681,225,1522],"class_list":["post-55838","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-los-angeles","tag-affordability","tag-barabak","tag-california","tag-candidate","tag-chabria","tag-democracy","tag-front-runner","tag-governor","tag-la","tag-la-headlines","tag-la-news","tag-los-angeles","tag-los-angeles-headlines","tag-los-angeles-news","tag-much-time","tag-newsom-democrats","tag-people","tag-president-trump","tag-record","tag-state","tag-voter"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55838","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55838"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55838\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/55839"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55838"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55838"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55838"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}