Eleven Democrats are vying to unseat Rep. Darrell Issa, a San Diego Republican, after California\u2019s redistricting measure turned his reliably red district into a slightly blue one that will be a key swing race in next year\u2019s midterm elections.<\/p>\n
Rep. Mike Levin, a San Clemente Democrat, can breathe easier, as Proposition 50 carves out new boundaries that make his swing district more safely Democratic.<\/p>\n
The new voting map<\/a> reflects California\u2019s bid to offset Texas\u2019 effort to secure control of the House by adding five Republican seats in November. California voters approved the redistricting plan proposed in Proposition 50 by nearly 20 points in a special election this month.<\/p>\n Both redistricting efforts are embroiled in litigation. On Tuesday a federal court blocked Texas<\/a> from using its new maps, finding that they would harm Black and Latino voters in that state. Last week the U.S. Department of Justice sued to overturn California\u2019s maps<\/a>, arguing that they unlawfully considered Latino voters in the new districts.<\/p>\n If California\u2019s redistricting plan withstands that challenge, the new voting map could help Democrats flip the lone Republican seat in San Diego. The 48th Congressional District, represented by Issa, will switch from a 12-point Republican advantage to a 4-point Democratic lead, based on voter registration.<\/p>\n A crowd of Democrats<\/p>\n The more favorable odds have drawn a wide field of challengers, including Issa\u2019s former opponent, Ammar Campa-Najjar, who lost to Issa in a previous version of the district in 2020, San Diego City Council Member Marni von Wilpert, and several contenders from the Coachella Valley.<\/p>\n The passage of the redistricting measure triggered a statewide game of musical chairs, setting in motion the chairs as well as the players.<\/p>\n The current 48th District covers conservative East County San Diego communities. The new district moves west and north, losing much of that backcountry and adding the North County San Diego cities of Escondido, San Marcos and Vista. It also includes ultra-liberal Palm Springs in Riverside County, where Democratic voters outnumber Republicans<\/a> by more than 4 to 1.<\/p>\n Those new lines absorb part of the current 41st District in Riverside County, represented by longstanding Republican Rep. Ken Calvert. His current district will move entirely to Los Angeles and Orange County, so Calvert plans to run in the new 40th District in Riverside and Orange County against fellow Republican Rep. Young Kim.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, three Coachella Valley Democrats who were among eight challengers against Calvert<\/a> for his Riverside County district have now jumped into the race against Issa. Attorney Anuj Dixit, school board member Abel Chavez and entrepreneur Brandon Riker all switched gears to campaign for the new 48th District. Another Palm Springs candidate, Marc Iannarino, a Navy veteran and bartender, threw his hat in the ring. Political observers note that the Coachella Valley candidates come from a smaller and more liberal portion of the new district.<\/p>\n \u201cThese are three candidates who really know Palm Springs, but they\u2019ve got to reach out to moderate, purplish voters and to know who San Diego voters are,\u201d said Dan Rottenstreich, campaign manager for von Wilpert.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is not a deep blue seat,\u201d Rottenstreich said. \u201cThis is going to be among the top five heavily contested races in the country.\u201d<\/p>\n Who can win the swing race?<\/p>\n Von Wilpert and Campa-Najjar, the two highest profile contenders, each argue they\u2019re the best candidate to navigate the slim partisan advantage.<\/p>\n Both have prominent endorsements. Former Sen. Barbara Boxer, numerous state and local leaders and the Democratic women\u2019s political action committee Emily\u2019s List are supporting von Wilpert. A slate of congress members including San Diego Reps. Mike Levin, Scott Peters and Sara Jacobs have weighed in for Campa-Najjar.<\/p>\n All the challengers face a well-established incumbent for a district that \u2014 despite its partisan shift \u2014 will still be a toss-up.<\/p>\n Von Wilpert, a former prosecutor in the San Diego city attorney\u2019s office, won her City Council seat in 2020, running against a Republican opponent in a conservative-leaning district, Rottenstreich said.<\/p>\n \u201cWith these new lines, CA-48 becomes one of the most competitive races in America, and a must-win seat to flip the House,\u201d von Wilpert said in a statement on election day. \u201cI\u2019m the only candidate in this race who\u2019s proven I can win tough elections, flip red seats blue, and deliver results for working families.\u201d<\/p>\n Campa-Najjar, a Navy officer and former Obama campaign official, argues that his experience running against Issa in 2020 positions him to win Democratic and independent votes in the new district.<\/p>\n \u201cI see it as a rematch between me and Darrell Issa, with 10 other candidates,\u201d he said. \u201cI\u2019m not running against them. I have great respect for them, but only one of us will win.\u201d<\/p>\n Although he lost in 2020, Campa-Najjar said he gained a foothold in the conservative district, getting more votes than expected in the majority Republican district.<\/p>\n Can Issa hold his seat?<\/p>\n Issa has served in Congress for more than 20 years in different districts. He originally held the 49th District \u2014 now represented by Levin \u2014 from 2001 through 2019, and retired when that district became competitive. In 2020, he won his current seat, holding it for the next two terms after it was redrawn during statewide redistricting in 2021.<\/p>\n Issa declined to answer questions from CalMatters, but in a statement he called Proposition 50 an \u201cunprecedented purely partisan campaign that pitted neighbor against neighbor and divided the state as never before.\u201d<\/p>\n Despite that, Issa said he plans to run again: \u201cI\u2019m not going anywhere. I\u2019ll continue to represent the people of California \u2014 regardless of their party or where they live.\u201d<\/p>\n The general election will reflect voters’ opinions about President Trump; historically the president\u2019s party usually loses ground<\/a> in the midterms. Issa, a close Trump ally who has supported the president\u2019s policies and nominated him<\/a> for a Nobel Peace Prize, will have to lean into that record, Kousser said.<\/p>\n \u201cHe has to embrace him with his base and make the case to the middle that the Trump presidency has been good for their district,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n The crowded field of Democrats could thwart some candidates in the primary, Kousser said. But it will likely benefit the party in the general election next November, forcing challengers to campaign early and gain traction with voters.<\/p>\n \u201cWhoever emerges as the Democratic candidate is going to be battle-tested in that district,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n A coastal swing district shifts left<\/p>\n The redistricting measure also shored up vulnerable Democratic seats, including Levin\u2019s 49th District. It shifts south, adding coastal San Diego communities of La Jolla and Torrey Pines. Now 65% of the current district is in San Diego County; in the new district that climbs to 81%, Levin said.<\/p>\n With that come more Democratic voters, and even more left-leaning voters. The current district has a 2% margin of Democratic voter registration, which jumps to 4% under the new lines. But the Democratic advantage jumps to 12% when you compare the number of votes for former Vice President Kamala Harris vs. Trump in last year\u2019s election.<\/p>\n That positions Levin more securely in his reelection race. He faces Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, along with two other Republicans and a nonpartisan candidate.<\/p>\n \u201cThe southern shift of that district makes it more blue in terms of the democratic registrations, and the political leanings of the independents,\u201d said Paul Mitchell, the political data expert who drew California\u2019s new voting lines. \u201cSo that district for him is a big improvement.\u201d<\/p>\n Sullivan Brennan writes for CalMatters.<\/p>\n