{"id":75359,"date":"2025-11-30T08:39:31","date_gmt":"2025-11-30T08:39:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/75359\/"},"modified":"2025-11-30T08:39:31","modified_gmt":"2025-11-30T08:39:31","slug":"how-box-office-expectations-upended-the-2026-oscars-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/75359\/","title":{"rendered":"How box-office expectations upended the 2026 Oscars race"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Twenty-five years ago (25!), I was talking with John Cusack about his movie \u201cHigh Fidelity,\u201d the one where he played Rob Gordon, a record store owner and compulsive list maker<\/a>. We were batting around top-fives \u2014 Rob\u2019s top five movies: \u201cBlade Runner,\u201d \u201cCool Hand Luke,\u201d the two \u201cGodfather\u201d films and \u201cThe Shining\u201d are as good a list as any \u2014 and I asked Cusack if he, like Rob, had a funeral music top five. <\/p>\n

\u201c\u2018Many Rivers to Cross\u2019<\/a> feels like the perfect choice at No. 1,\u201d Cusack answered, citing the great Jimmy Cliff\u2019s enduring anthem of perseverance. <\/p>\n

Now Cliff has crossed over to the other side<\/a>, which makes it feel like a good time to cue up \u201cThe Harder They Come\u201d<\/a> \u2014 though there is never a bad time to play that trailblazing reggae soundtrack. <\/p>\n

I\u2019m Glenn Whipp, columnist for the Los Angeles Times and host of The Envelope newsletter, thankful I can see clearly now the rain is gone<\/a>. Let\u2019s look at how box-office success is all relative these days when it comes to awards season.<\/p>\n

Sign up for The Envelope <\/p>\n

Get exclusive awards season news, in-depth interviews and columnist Glenn Whipp\u2019s must-read analysis straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n

By continuing, you agree to our Terms of Service<\/a> and our Privacy Policy<\/a>. <\/p>\n

With Oscar voters, box-office perception is reality \"A <\/p>\n

Misato Morita and Brendan Fraser in the movie \u201cRental Family.\u201d<\/p>\n

(James Lisle \/ Searchlight Pictures)<\/p>\n

What movies are you seeing this Thanksgiving weekend? If you\u2019re pushing aside the pie and leftovers, chances are you might be buying a ticket for \u201cWicked: For Good\u201d<\/a> or \u201cZootopia 2.\u201d<\/a> The \u201cWicked\u201d sequel opened to an estimated $150 million<\/a> last weekend, besting the original and making my optimistic forecast<\/a> for its Oscar prospects look a little rosier. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, \u201cRental Family,\u201d a sweet, superficial drama starring Brendan Fraser looking to savage your heartstrings once again, opened to just $3.3 million from nearly 2,000 screens. Even in a lead actor field that isn\u2019t particularly deep this year, Fraser\u2019s chances of returning to the Oscars are now pretty much nil. <\/p>\n

\u201cRental Family\u201d is the latest fall film festival awards contender starring an A-list (or A-list-adjacent) actor to disappear at the box office. The list includes \u201cThe Smashing Machine\u201d (Dwayne Johnson), \u201cChristy\u201d (Sydney Sweeney), \u201cAfter the Hunt\u201d (Julia Roberts and Andrew Garfield) and \u201cDie My Love\u201d (Jennifer Lawrence). <\/p>\n

Going through these titles, you could make a case that moviegoers are simply showing discernment. None of the movies worked. Critics shrugged, and audiences responded in kind. Good on Johnson and Sweeney for using their star power to stretch, but when people are questioning if they can afford to eat out at McDonald\u2019s<\/a>, they\u2019re going to need a reason to buy a ticket beyond mere curiosity. <\/p>\n

The dead-on-arrival opening weekends of these movies have recast the lead actor and actress Oscar races, boosting anyone not stained by perception of outright failure. <\/p>\n

But in this post-pandemic age of moviegoing, what constitutes success? Pushing through to December when the critics groups (as well as \u201ccritics\u201d groups<\/a>) start handing out awards and nominations, the goal is to convey an impression of success and hope that financial windfall might follow. <\/p>\n

For example: Joachim Trier\u2019s decidedly unsentimental family drama \u201cSentimental Value\u201d<\/a> has parlayed its strong word of mouth and critical acclaim to decent-enough ticket sales in its limited engagement the last two weeks. No one expects a Norwegian-language movie to burn up the box office. Doing fine is a victory. <\/p>\n

Then there\u2019s Richard Linklater\u2019s \u201cBlue Moon,\u201d a modest, moving portrait of legendary Broadway lyricist Lorenz Hart, which opened last month in five theaters, quickly expanded to nearly 700 screens before retreating to a few dozen. It didn\u2019t flame out commercially but has grossed a mere $2 million. That\u2019s … OK. The strong reviews for the film and its lead, Ethan Hawke<\/a>, have kept Hawke in the conversation for his first lead actor Oscar nomination. <\/p>\n

Is it fair that Hawke lives while Lawrence, Sweeney, Roberts and Johnson, whose movies opened wide to disastrous results, feel finished? <\/p>\n

\u201cOscar voters aren\u2019t going to watch a movie that has been deemed a failure,\u201d says a veteran awards publicist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss the situation candidly. \u201cWhen people read those scary headlines opening weekend, they don\u2019t forget.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Oscar <\/p>\n

Oscar Isaac in \u201cFrankenstein.\u201d<\/p>\n

(Ken Woroner \/ Netflix)<\/p>\n

Netflix, which opens its contending films in qualifying releases before they land on the streaming platform, is mostly immune to this kind of negative publicity as it doesn\u2019t report box-office numbers. But it will release the number of \u201cviews\u201d its films rack up. Guillermo del Toro\u2019s monster movie \u201cFrankenstein\u201d<\/a> accumulated nearly 63 million views in its first 10 days; Kathryn Bigelow\u2019s riveting thriller \u201cA House of Dynamite\u201d totaled 31.6 million in its first two weeks. (The company defines a view as the total time spent watching a movie divided by the running time.)<\/p>\n

Guess which movie is currently Netflix\u2019s perceived Oscar favorite<\/a>? <\/p>\n

The movie to watch this weekend then, in more ways than one, is Chlo\u00e9 Zhao\u2019s celebrated drama \u201cHamnet,\u201d<\/a> which has piled up audience awards at film festivals the last several weeks. Focus Features is platforming it in 100-plus theaters, and if you live in Southern California, you won\u2019t have to drive too far to see this beautiful story of love and loss and transcendent catharsis. <\/p>\n

What narrative will emerge? I\u2019ll write more about \u201cHamnet\u201d on Monday. For now, get thee to a theater and let me know what you think.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Twenty-five years ago (25!), I was talking with John Cusack about his movie \u201cHigh Fidelity,\u201d the one where…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":75360,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[43794,2308,29897,339,1924,48,52,51,5562,47,50,49,63,43793,1555,4287,100,2429,43795,8843,1968],"class_list":["post-75359","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-los-angeles","tag-97th-oscars","tag-art","tag-daily-life","tag-death","tag-film","tag-la","tag-la-headlines","tag-la-news","tag-last-week","tag-los-angeles","tag-los-angeles-headlines","tag-los-angeles-news","tag-los-angeles-times","tag-lynch","tag-man","tag-movie","tag-news","tag-thursday","tag-times-writer","tag-way","tag-work"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75359","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75359"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75359\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/75360"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75359"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75359"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75359"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}