A blue wave is building offshore, and Republicans are starting to hear the rumble and fear being washed away.<\/p>\n
They have good reasons. President Trump\u2019s approval rating has slipped to a paltry 36%<\/a>, which is the political equivalent of your doctor saying, \u201cTechnically, you\u2019re still alive.\u201d<\/p>\n The notion that Democrats will retake the House has gone from wishful thinking to conventional wisdom \u2014 and the possibility they could claw back the Senate is suddenly no longer a joke.<\/p>\n Retirements are accelerating<\/a>. And if November\u2019s elections in New Jersey and Virginia didn\u2019t serve as a flashing \u201cwarning\u201d signal, this week\u2019s special election in Tennessee might do the trick.<\/p>\n True, Republican Matt Van Epps won by 9 points. But just last year, Trump carried that same district by around 22. That\u2019s a swing of 13 points. I\u2019m no math major, but I\u2019m pretty sure if Republicans spot every Democrat in America a baker\u2019s dozen points, the results will be what political scientists call a \u201cwhoa, mama\u201d situation.<\/p>\n Indeed, data journalist G. Elliott Morris predicts:<\/a> \u201cA swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House\u201d and even a six-point swing \u201cgives them the House, and maybe the Senate.\u201d<\/p>\n Republicans, when they\u2019re being honest, admit this.<\/p>\n Before the election, one House Republican told Politico: <\/a> \u201cIf our victory margin is single digits, the conference may come unhinged.\u201d Well, Trump\u2019s GOP was never exactly hinged to begin with, but you don\u2019t have to be a worrywart to know that it\u2019s time to hit the \u201cpanic\u201d button.<\/p>\n The Democratic nominee in Tennessee, Aftyn Behn \u2014 dubbed the \u201cAOC of Tennessee\u201d by Republicans \u2014 was never an ideal candidate for this district. She leaned left and publicly said she hates country music \u2014 an interesting take in a district that includes parts of Nashville.<\/p>\n And yet, for a lot of voters, none of that was disqualifying. Whether the problem is Trump fatigue, the affordability crisis or some combination thereof, the real story here isn\u2019t just that things are starting to look scary for Republicans. It\u2019s that bad news, in politics, functions like compound interest: A small problem today balloons into a huge crisis tomorrow.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is the time when both parties recruit candidates, shore up vulnerable incumbents, and set expectations,\u201d writes former \u201cMeet the Press\u201d host Chuck Todd<\/a>. \u201cAnd this downturn for the GOP couldn\u2019t be coming at a better time for Democrats or a worse time for Republicans.\u201d<\/p>\n After getting off to a fast start to his second term, Trump\u2019s momentum hit the wall this fall. The results were ugly.<\/p>\n But this state of free fall could last the rest of Trump\u2019s term. Just ask any other lame duck.<\/p>\n And here\u2019s why it\u2019s an even bigger deal: Momentum and perception have always mattered. But in the case of Trump, these ethereal qualities are pulling double duty, not just shaping the 2026 midterm landscape but also bleeding into calculations about whether Trump might somehow find a way to stay in power after 2028.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not paranoia to suspect that political, financial, media institutions \u2014 and yes, even judges \u2014 are hedging their bets, consciously or not, based on whether they think crossing Trump is more dangerous than running afoul of the next administration (and possibly, the law).<\/p>\n These people can smell risk the way sharks smell blood.<\/p>\n Take JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, for example. He publicly declined to contribute to Trump\u2019s ballroom fund<\/a>, a move he likely wouldn\u2019t have made if Trump looked stronger. Rather than wooing Trump, he would seem to be striving to stay on the right side of the powerful people who could make life difficult for JPM \u2014 whoever will be running Congress in 13 months and the executive branch after Trump.<\/p>\n This is where psychology comes into play. Losing elections and tanking poll numbers aren\u2019t just bad in and of themselves; they also degrade Trump\u2019s ability to project inevitability, which becomes its own sort of self-fulfilling prophecy.<\/p>\n If people perceive that Trump is gaining power, they think of him like a fixed object. Conversely, if they think he\u2019s fading, they suddenly rediscover concepts like \u201cindependence\u201d and \u201clegal consequences.\u201d<\/p>\n This is to say, we\u2019re at an inflection point. And every stumble \u2014 every retirement, every poll dip, every special election \u2014 accelerates the cycle.<\/p>\n Electorally, this discourages top-tier Republicans from running, which hurts the party\u2019s chances of keeping the House. Institutionally, it undermines Trump\u2019s greatest political resource: the illusion of inevitability.<\/p>\n Once that cracks, the whole operation wobbles like a chandelier in a wind storm.<\/p>\n Republicans see it. Democrats smell it. Donors can feel a shift in the air. Anyone with a title, a reputation and a fear of subpoenas has their finger in the wind.<\/p>\n The storm clouds are already gathering.<\/p>\n Matt K. Lewis is the author of \u201cFilthy Rich Politicians<\/a>\u201d and \u201cToo Dumb to Fail<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A blue wave is building offshore, and Republicans are starting to hear the rumble and fear being washed…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":83051,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[1751,204,16538,9172,47230,48,52,51,47,50,49,1417,47228,6214,1748,47229,38110,10194,572,315,1519],"class_list":["post-83050","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-los-angeles","tag-democrats","tag-election","tag-fall","tag-house","tag-inevitability","tag-la","tag-la-headlines","tag-la-news","tag-los-angeles","tag-los-angeles-headlines","tag-los-angeles-news","tag-point","tag-powerful-people","tag-republican","tag-republicans","tag-same-district","tag-second-term","tag-swing","tag-tennessee","tag-time","tag-trump"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83050","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=83050"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83050\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/83051"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=83050"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=83050"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=83050"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}