A cargo ship leaves the Port of Los Angeles and heads out to sea in 2024. (Gina Ferazzi \/ Los Angeles Times) <\/p>\n
The Port of Los Angeles expects it will move than 10 million container units for the second year in a row despite President Trump’s tariffs<\/a> \u2014 but that number is likely to drop off in 2026 as the fallout of the administration’s trade war persists.<\/p>\n This year’s volume will reflect a decision by importers to get ahead of the tariffs before the duties took effect \u2014 with trade later slowing, according to the monthly report by the nation’s largest container port.<\/p>\n “In a word, 2025 was a roller coaster,” port Executive Director Gene Seroka said during the webcast.<\/p>\n Read more: U.S. representatives sound alarm over slowing port activity<\/a><\/p>\n In November, there was a 12% decrease in volume with about 782,000 TEUs, or 20-foot equivalent container units, processed by the port. The decrease was driven by an 11% fall in year-over-year import volume.<\/p>\n “Much of that difference is tied to last year’s rush to build inventories and now with some warehouse levels still elevated, importers are pacing their orders a bit more carefully,” Seroka said.<\/p>\n Still, by the end of November, the port had moved almost 9.5 million container units, 1% more than last year, leading to the expectation that volume will top 10 million for the year.<\/p>\n The port moved 10.3 million container units last year and set a record in 2021 when it moved 10.7 million container units.<\/p>\n However, exports \u2014 cargo shipments from the port \u2014 fell for the seventh time in 11 months in November, sliding 8%, which will lead to the first annual decline since 2021. Seroka blamed the drop on the response to the tariffs.<\/p>\n Read more: Jobs at the Port of Los Angeles are down by half, executive director says<\/a><\/p>\n “We’re also seeing the effects of retaliatory tariffs and third country trade deals on U.S. ag and manufacturing exports,” Seroka said. “This is a headwind we may face for some time to come.”<\/p>\n The port director said he expects that imports will decline in the “single digits” next year because of continued high inventory levels, but he doesn’t anticipate a drastic downturn in overall trade.<\/p>\n Read more: From Bratz dolls to Krusty the Clown: How Trump tariffs are hurting L.A. toy makers<\/a><\/p>\n “I don’t see the port volume falling off a cliff, and it’s a pretty good leading indicator to the U.S. economy that we should take stock in,” said Seroka, who added that there is much economic uncertainty entering next year.<\/p>\n The question of where the economy is headed was highlighted Tuesday by the latest jobs figures<\/a>, which were delayed by the government shutdown.<\/p>\n They showed the economy lost 105,00 jobs in October as federal workers departed after the Trump administration cuts but gained 64,000 jobs in November.<\/p>\n Read more: California hammered as national job cuts jump to a five-year high<\/a><\/p>\n The November job gains came in higher than the 40,000 that economists had forecast, but the unemployment rate still rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021.<\/p>\n Constance Hunter, chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, who provided a 2026 U.S. national economic forecast for the port on Tuesday, said the jobs figures offer mixed signals.<\/p>\n The job gains were driven by the health and human services sector, reflecting a narrowing of where job growth is occurring. At the same time, more types of companies are adding jobs rather than subtracting them.<\/p>\n Hunter forecast that the economy will grow in the first half of the year, as consumers receive tax cuts called for in Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” tax-and-spending measure. However, tariffs will weigh down the economy later.<\/p>\n One key issue driving uncertainty, she said, is whether the U.S. Supreme Court will uphold the tariffs Trump imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.<\/p>\n The Trump administration announced Tuesday that the government had collected more than $200 billion in tariff revenue this year. Trump has talked about sending out $2,000 rebate checks to consumers with some of the funds.<\/p>\n Read more: U.S. gained 64,000 jobs in November but lost 105,000 in October; unemployment is up to 4.6%<\/a><\/p>\n However, a Supreme Court loss <\/a>would force the government to return, by various estimates, $80 billion or more of the money to importers, putting a crimp in the president’s plans for economic stimulus.<\/p>\n Other factors driving uncertainty, Hunter said, are the Ukraine-Russia war, U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan and the “durability of peace in the Middle East.”<\/p>\n “All of these things are going to conspire to keep what we call the uncertainty index elevated,” she said.<\/p>\n