FTA President Manuel Bonilla told GV Wire on Tuesday that the SEDA plan would cost the district $200 million over 10 years, possibly leading to 11 school closures \u2014 eight elementary schools, two middle schools, and one high school. Bonilla said the calculation was based on data from the city\u2019s housing market analysis study released earlier this year and from district data.<\/p>\n
Fresno Unified, however, said that information did not come from the district. A district spokesperson also told GV Wire that \u201cdue to our current declining enrollment, we could potentially close 3-5 schools in the future, however, that would be our last resort. Other actions that we might first consider include program realignment and boundary changes.\u201d<\/p>\n
Fresno Unified made that statement after Dyer\u2019s appearance on KMJ\u2019s Ray Appleton Show on Tuesday. On the show,\u00a0Dyer called claims from FTA that SEDA approval would\u00a0 cause 11 Fresno Unified schools to shut down and cost the district $200 million \u201cmisinformation.\u201d The mayor also said that Fresno Unified Superintendent Misty Her told him the district did not have that figure.<\/p>\n
Additionally, Dyer said during his radio appearance that Her told him because of declining enrollment in Fresno Unified, the administration has considered plans to shut down three schools regardless of SEDA implementation.<\/p>\n
Fresno Unified, City of Fresno Both Lost \u2018Competitive Edge,\u2019 Dyer Says<\/p>\n
The other part of the projection comes from a housing market study on SEDA done by the city before Dyer changed his plan for the southern portion to be zoned for virtually all industrial companies. In response to objections to SEDA, he said he will also recommend restrictions on SEDA development based on population projections or voter referendum.<\/p>\n
He said after presenting the plan to the district, they removed objections to SEDA.<\/p>\n
He said akin to city\u2019s lost \u201ccompetitive edge\u201d in housing and job creation, Fresno Unified has been losing families to neighboring areas such as Madera and Clovis.<\/p>\n
\u201cFamilies that have left Fresno to move to Madera or Clovis or Sanger because of available housing in Fresno, and so that\u2019s the same concern that I have,\u201d Dyer said. \u201cWe have begun to lose our competitive edge for housing, which is clearly shown with Madera growing, with Riverstone, Tesoro Viejo. If we had available land that was suitable to the desires of those people that left Fresno, I don\u2019t think they would have moved.\u201d<\/p>\n
Fresnoland claimed that GV Wire publisher Darius Assemi, who owns president of Granville Homes, owns land \u201cthrough out\u201d SEDA.<\/p>\n
Of the 9,000 acres in SEDA, Assemi owns a single 30-acre parcel near Highland and Shields avenues, land records show and Assemi confirmed to GV Wire.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Enrollment-and-Average-Daily-Attendance-FUSD.jpg\")
Fresno Unified enrollment figures pre- and post-Covid (Fresno Unified)
\nGrowth in Southeast Will Result in Decline in City\u2019s Interior: Bonilla<\/p>\n
Bonilla said he came up with the figure after putting together the city\u2019s housing study with Fresno Unified\u2019s enrollment figures. Fresno Unified has been the only district to not recover from Covid enrollment declines. The district also has some of the lowest test scores in California.<\/p>\n
Clovis, Sanger, and Central districts have all exceeded 2019 numbers, according to GV Wire research.<\/p>\n
Bonilla, however, said a projected growth of homes in southeast Fresno would result in a decline in the interior of the city. The city\u2019s projection shows after SEDA growth begins in earnest in early 2035, an average of 700 new homes would be built yearly in the new area.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe have some historical examples of when these types of projects happen \u2014 most notably as we look northeast into Clovis West, Clovis North, in regards to the housing development,\u201d Bonilla said.<\/p>\n
He said every 1,000 students lost equates to an annual loss of $20 million. Over 10 years, that becomes $200 million. While budget losses begin with programs lost, it turns into jobs lost and eventually schools closing.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen budgets are hit, you\u2019re looking at things like cuts in programs, cuts in arts programs, cuts in career technical education programs, cuts in dual immersion programs,\u201d Bonilla said.<\/p>\n
Is Development a Zero-Sum Game?<\/p>\n
But that loss comes from a premise that development is a zero-sum game and that Fresno\u2019s population will remain flat.<\/p>\n
Where the finance department predicted Fresno\u2019s growth would only be .2% last year, the city grew .7%, the fifth-highest in the state, Fresno Planning Department Director Jennifer Clark said.<\/p>\n
A majority of the city\u2019s development has been within existing city boundaries, as well, Dyer said \u2014 76% in the city limit compared to the required 50\/50 split laid out in the 2014 General Plan.<\/p>\n
Not keeping up with that demand has cost the city as families move to Madera, Clovis, and Sanger. For a budget 40% reliant on property tax revenue, Dyer said missing that demand costs the city.<\/p>\n
A 51% property tax revenue deal between the city and county from SEDA properties will benefit the interior of the city, he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhen you consider that 40% of our revenues for the city come from property tax, we need to have land developed within our city that will provide the revenue needed to support services like police and fire, roads and parks throughout Fresno,\u201d Dyer said.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/SEDA-Map-Fresno-City-Council-2025-1920.png\")
SEDA Map Fresno City Council (GV Wire Composite)
\n\u2018Safeguards\u2019 Could Limit SEDA Sprawl: Dyer<\/p>\n
After meeting with SEDA opponents, Dyer said he will recommend to the city council safeguards on SEDA to limit development to only the southern area of the plan and a 500-acre portion caddy corner to the area.<\/p>\n
The southern area will mostly be a \u201cflexible research and development\u201d zoning \u2014 a new area that Clark likened to the industrial area at Ingram Avenue south of Nees Avenue. The nearby 500 acres will be dedicated to housing.<\/p>\n
A commercial real estate broker previously told GV Wire that investment into small industrial areas would likely only come from people living near their businesses.<\/p>\n
Dyer said population caps or required voter referendums could limit further expansion into SEDA.<\/p>\n
\u201cBefore you can move beyond the current boundaries, they would have to reach a certain population density level within the existing area, maybe that\u2019s 70% or even have a voter referendum in place to go beyond the identified growth area at this point. I\u2019m open to any of that,\u201d Dyer said.<\/p>\n
Bonilla said without seeing a plan he could not comment on whether it would hurt the district.<\/p>\n
The More Restrictions, the Less Competitive Fresno Is: BIA<\/p>\n
President and CEO of the Fresno Madera Building Industry Association Darren Rose said builders will do what it takes to have SEDA approved. The same housing market study referenced by Bonilla shows demand throughout the city, so he said the fewer restrictions, the better for homebuyers and affordability.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe building industry is willing to work with the administration to get a specific plan eventually passed,\u201d Rose said. \u201cHowever, the more restrictions developers have, the less competitive Fresno will be,\u201d Rose said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer says he calmed Fresno Unified\u2019s worries about the city\u2019s southeast plan after saying he…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":97712,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[93,112,114,113],"class_list":{"0":"post-97711","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-fresno","8":"tag-featured","9":"tag-fresno","10":"tag-fresno-headlines","11":"tag-fresno-news"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97711","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=97711"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97711\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/97712"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=97711"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=97711"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/us-ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=97711"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}