The Raiders, Titans and Giants all lost in Week 15, but New York jumped from the third overall pick up to the first overall pick because it has a slightly lower strength of schedule (.577) than Las Vegas (.579) or Tennessee (.597).<\/p>\n
According to The Athletic\u2019s playoff predictor, the Raiders still stand a 47% chance of getting the first pick with the Titans (17%), Giants (14%), Browns (12%) and Jets (9%) the only other teams above one percent.<\/p>\n
However, I feel like the G-Men still have the inside track because their remaining strength of schedule is significantly lower than the Raiders and Titans (.345 to .405 to .476), which means the Giants would have the tiebreaker with the other two two-loss teams and land the top pick if all three finish the season with the same overall record.<\/p>\n
New York has earned the first overall pick in the NFL draft just two times before. The Giants drafted SMU halfback Kyle Rote in 1951. Rote finished his career as a four-time Pro Bowler, and held several team records when he retired a decade later. They drafted Auburn running back Tucker Frederickson in 1965 with Hall of Famers Dick Butkus and Gale Sayers on the board.<\/p>\n
The Bears would select Butkus and Sayers with the third and fourth overall picks. Frederickson, a Heisman Trophy runner-up, made the Pro Bowl as a rookie, but missed his second season with a knee injury, and never fully regained his early form.<\/p>\n
Notably, the last time the Giants selected at the top of the draft, they traded up with the San Diego Chargers in 2004, sending the No. 4 overall pick, a 2004 third-rounder, a 2005 first-rounder and a 2005 fifth-rounder to the Bolts for the right to draft Eli Manning.<\/p>\n
This time around, they\u2019d likely trade down because the one thing the Giants have going for them is a franchise quarterback in Jaxson Dart (assuming he can stay healthy). However, I don\u2019t do trades this early in the draft process, and the first pick is too early to take a wide receiver or offensive lineman in this draft.<\/p>\n
So we\u2019ll address a disappointing defense this time around.<\/p>\n
Here are some key dates going forward before we get to the draft in Pittsburgh (April 23-25):<\/p>\n
Jan. 5: FCS Showcase in Nashville, Tenn.<\/p>\n
Jan. 10: Hula Bowl in DeLand, Fla.<\/p>\n
Jan. 10-12: Wild Card Weekend<\/p>\n
Jan. 14: Tentative deadline for players with remaining eligibility to make their draft intentions official.<\/p>\n
Jan. 17-18: Divisional Playoffs<\/p>\n
Jan. 18: Tropical Bowl in Orlando, Fla.<\/p>\n
Jan. 23: Tentative deadline for players with remaining eligibility who participated in the CFP title game to make their draft intentions official.<\/p>\n
Jan. 25: AFC and NFC Championship Games<\/p>\n
Jan. 27: East-West Shrine Bowl in Frisco, Texas<\/p>\n
Jan. 31: Senior Bowl in Mobile, Ala.<\/p>\n
Feb. 8: Super Bowl LX in San Francisco<\/p>\n
Feb. 17-March 3: Franchise\/transition player designation period<\/p>\n
Feb. 23-March 2: NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis<\/p>\n
Early March:\u00a0Colleges can begin hosting pro days<\/p>\n
March 11: New league year begins at 1 p.m. (i.e. free agency)<\/p>\n
MOCK PREAMBLE<\/p>\n
This is an attempt at figuring out the best players available in this season\u2019s draft class, and which teams they\u2019d match up well with considering the current draft order courtesy of NFL.com. The closer we get to draft day, the more I\u2019ll attempt to match what teams will actually do with their draft picks as opposed to what I believe they should do.<\/p>\n
According to The Huddle Report, I was the second-most accurate NFL draft prognosticator in print last season. I tied for first overall (out of 172) covering a five-year period between 2019 and 2023.<\/p>\n
Considering the NFL doesn\u2019t have an offseason, the draft has become the Super Bowl of the league\u2019s second season, and a mock version of said draft is meant to educate, perhaps even entertain. At very least, it helps you pass the time.<\/p>\n
Follow me on X (formerly known as Twitter) @UTEddieBrown<\/a> so we can continue the conversation.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s an updated version of my 2026 NFL Mock Draft:<\/p>\n FIRST ROUND<\/p>\n 1. N.Y. Giants (2-12) \u2014 Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio St., Jr.<\/p>\n Whoever GM Joe Schoen hires to replace Brian Daboll will give us more clues on how this organization plans to proceed. Building support around franchise QB Jaxson Dart makes the most sense, but I still believe this is too high for a receiver or O-lineman in this draft. Reese has the talent to go first overall. He\u2019s played off-ball linebacker, but I could easily see him as a full-time edge rusher in the pros, very similar to Micah Parsons or the Giants\u2019 2025 first-rounder Abdul Carter. Reese features a rare blend of size (6-4, 240) and elite athleticism, has sideline-to-sideline range and the natural instincts to make plays all over the field playing off the ball. He\u2019s also produced 6\u00bd sacks and 10 tackles for loss as a primary edge rusher for the Buckeyes this season. Drafting Reese would also allow Schoen to trade Kayvon Thibodeaux, who will be in the final year of his rookie deal next season. Top needs: DL, G, CB<\/p>\n 2. Las Vegas (2-12) \u2014 Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana, Jr.<\/p>\n Geno Smith isn\u2019t the answer at quarterback, so barring Tom Brady coming out of retirement or cloning himself, the Raiders can\u2019t afford to ignore the most important position in sports this offseason. Perhaps Brady\u2019s pal (and Las Vegas GM) John Spytek would prefer to trade for Kyler Murray or Mac Jones and draft a QB to develop on day two or three, but if they end up drafting this high, I don\u2019t see how they pass on a signal-caller. Especially if Mendoza or Oregon\u2019s Dante Moore is available. The Heisman Trophy-winner has the prototypical size (6-5, 225) scouts favor, good arm talent and functional athleticism. He\u2019s not a finished product by any means \u2014 pressure can affect his footwork and his deep ball accuracy needs refinement \u2014 but he just showcased his ability to step up in big moments in the Hoosiers\u2019 gritty 13-10 win over Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. Top needs: QB, Edge, WR<\/p>\n 3. Tennessee (2-12) \u2014 Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami, Jr.<\/p>\n Traditionally after drafting a franchise QB with the first overall pick in the previous draft, an organization would utilize the next draft to stockpile offensive talent in support of the QB. There aren\u2019t any offensive lineman or wide receivers worthy of a top-3 pick in this draft class, so the Titans would likely focus on their pass rush if they aren\u2019t wowed by a trade offer. The 6-foot-3, 275-pound Bain doesn\u2019t have prototypical length, but the ACC Defensive Player of the Year possesses raw power, first-step explosion and can anchor against the run when he\u2019s not terrorizing quarterbacks. Comparisons to Hall of Famer Dwight Freeney are apt. I also see shades of longtime Eagles star Brandon Graham. Top needs: Edge, WR, CB<\/p>\n 4. Cleveland (3-11) \u2014 Spencer Fano, T, Utah, Jr.<\/p>\n One thing has been very clear this last month: Shedeur Sanders should have been starting over Dillon Gabriel all along. Let\u2019s say the Browns are impressed enough by Sanders to forgo drafting yet another QB in April. This pick would almost certainly come down to an offensive lineman or wide receiver.\u00a0There isn\u2019t a Joe Alt or Penei Sewell in this draft class, but Fano is a big (6-6, 302), powerful, athletic anchor in the run game, and his footwork has improved in pass protection this season. The consensus All-American just became the first-ever Utes\u2019 lineman to win the Outland Trophy after not allowing a sack, and only five QB pressures during the regular season. Top needs: QB, T, CB<\/p>\n 5. N.Y. Jets (3-11) \u2014 Dante Moore, QB, Oregon, So.<\/p>\n After a busy trade deadline, GM Darren Mougey has enough draft capital to call his shot with a QB if he needs to move up. In this scenario, Mougey keeps his powder dry and still lands a potential franchise signal-caller.\u00a0Moore\u2019s ceiling is the highest in a QB group that won\u2019t include LaNorris Sellers or Arch Manning. He\u2019s accurate, throws a catchable deep ball, and has shown the ability to make plays outside of the pocket. Moore would likely end up as a top-5 pick if he declares. He could very well end up going first overall, depending on what team ends up making the selection. His offensive coordinator Will Stein leaving the Ducks to become Kentucky\u2019s head coach has created uncertainty. I was originally confident he\u2019d stay in school. Top needs: QB, CB, DL<\/p>\n 6. Arizona (3-11) \u2014 Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame, Jr.<\/p>\n The Cardinals could be in the market for a QB if they decide to move on from Kyler Murray. Otherwise, almost every running back that has suited up for Arizona this season has ended up on injured reserve. Plus, James Conner is officially on the wrong side of 30.\u00a0Love features elite size (6-foot, 214 pounds), patience and balance on top of home run capabilities with TD runs of 98 and 94 yards the last two seasons. The Doak Walker Award-winner is explosive, elusive, powerful and versatile. Top needs: OL, DL, WR<\/p>\n 7. Washington (4-10) \u2014 Keldric Faulk, Edge, Auburn, Jr.<\/p>\n The Commanders\u2019 biggest problem is they can\u2019t keep Jayden Daniels healthy. Their second biggest problem is they need more playmakers at all three levels of their defense. Faulk is a 6-foot-6, 285-pound edge who was the No. 9 player on\u00a0Bruce Feldman\u2019s 2025 \u201cFreaks List\u201d<\/a>, reportedly squatting 700 pounds and benching 415. He\u2019s a versatile chess piece on the D-line in odd or even fronts, and has even shown the ability to standup and play outside linebacker. Faulk doesn\u2019t turn 21 until next September.\u00a0Top needs: Edge, LB, CB<\/p>\n 8. New Orleans (4-10) \u2014 Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio St., Jr.<\/p>\n There\u2019s a chance Saints GM Mickey Loomis is fine with Tyler Shough being the starter next year after drafting him with the 40th overall pick in April\u2019s draft, but if that\u2019s the case, Loomis needs to surround Shough with more weapons on offense.\u00a0The 6-foot-3, 195-pound playmaker has 838 yards and nine TDs on 48 receptions in 10 games so far, and is half of the best receiver duo in the country, opposite Jeremiah Smith. Tate has shown immense growth in his technical skills, especially his route running, which has transformed him from an explosive deep threat to a more complete receiver who can threaten a defense at all three levels. He\u2019d pair nicely with former Buckeye Chris Olave. Top needs: QB, Edge, WR<\/p>\n 9. Cincinnati (4-10) \u2014 Caleb Downs, S, Ohio St., Jr.<\/p>\n