A powerful Pineapple Express storm could deliver a wet, white and potentially wild Christmas to California, with the possibility of snow in the Sierra Nevada and plenty of rainfall across the Southland. <\/p>\n
Although the forecast is still coming into focus, the incoming atmospheric river system is shaping up to be the strongest in years to hit the Los Angeles area on the holiday \u2014 and threatens a soggy slog for those hitting the road to visit friends or family. <\/p>\n
The most likely scenario for Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties involves \u201chigh amounts\u201d of rain: 2 to 4 inches on the coast and in the valleys between Dec. 24 and 26, according to Robbie Munroe, meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Oxnard. <\/p>\n
There\u2019s a 50% chance of that scenario coming to pass. <\/p>\n
There\u2019s also a 30% chance of more moderate rainfall, 1 to 2 inches on the coast and in the valleys, as well as 10% chance of \u201cvery high\u201d amounts, 4 or more inches, in those areas. <\/p>\n
The last time it rained on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day in downtown L.A. was in 2021, when 0.83 inches fell over the two days. The last time it rained more than 2 inches over those two days was all the way back in 1971, according to meteorologist Bryan Lewis of the weather service\u2019s Oxnard office. <\/p>\n
It\u2019s still unclear whether this storm will be naughty \u2014 with torrential downpours intense enough to cause flooding and mud or debris flows or nice, with gentle rainfall spread out beneficially over a period of days.<\/p>\n
\u201cEven if we see really high totals, impacts might still be more on the minor-to-moderate side,\u201d Munroe said during a briefing Wednesday. <\/p>\n
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But, more problematically, the Christmas week storm could turn out to be the first of a sequence, with one or even two more looming in its wake. <\/p>\n
\u201cThis might be the first of two or three storm systems,\u201d Munroe said. \u201cAnd if that does happen, impacts could become more concerning for that period of time, possibly lasting as we close into the new year, even.\u201d <\/p>\n
Beyond the Christmas storm, there\u2019s a lot of energy and moisture in the Pacific Ocean, Munroe said, \u201cbut it\u2019s hard to know if it\u2019s going to come in as one bigger storm or maybe two or three\u201d more-moderate systems. <\/p>\n
Although the storm promises to bring Southern California\u2019s first significant soaking in a month, an interlude that followed one of the region\u2019s wettest Novembers on record<\/a>, Northern California was already hit by storms this week. <\/p>\n A brief lull was expected Thursday, with a parade of storms forecast to begin by that night. Localized flooding could hit the North Coast on Thursday night into Friday, while light to moderate rain was expected in San Francisco and Sacramento. <\/p>\n The San Francisco Bay Area is expected to see its first in a series of Christmas week storms on Sunday, potentially snarling holiday travel. <\/p>\n \u201cBy the beginning of next week, we are likely to see rivers begin to swell and the potential for rock and land slides to interfere with travel plans,\u201d said the National Weather Service office in Monterey, which issues forecasts for the Bay Area. <\/p>\n \u201cThis atmospheric river pattern will bring significant amounts of rain,\u201d said the weather service office in Sacramento. Snow levels could drop to 5,500 feet above sea level by Tuesday and Wednesday, suggesting \u201cpotential major mountain holiday travel impacts\u201d for Christmas Eve. <\/p>\n The storm is slated to come from the tropics southwest of the California coast. It\u2019s expected to start out as a warm storm, and some ski resorts in Los Angeles County might initially see rain instead of sought-after snow<\/a>. <\/p>\n \u201cThere is the potential that they could get a fair amount of snow at the resort level later on Christmas Day … or into the 26th, or even beyond, if the active weather pattern continues,\u201d Munroe said. <\/p>\n In the Sierra, where resorts have been pained by warm weather and a snow drought so far this season, it was far from clear whether there would be enough cold air to lower snow levels. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n