JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – It’s a new year and one question is top of many people’s minds: will housing finally become more affordable?
We are looking ahead to 2026 at what local analysts and realtors say is coming next for home prices and what it could mean for your bottom line in the year ahead.
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The new year could deliver improved affordability, steadier mortgage rates, and more for-sale options.
Let’s start with what the average home is currently selling for: $375,000, according to the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors.
But let’s take a look back at how we got to this point and the national buzz around affordability.
“They have a new word…you know they always have a hoax. The new word is ‘affordability,’” President Donald Trump said in December.
“They don’t mention the border anymore. Nobody talks about the border. They talk about affordability,” President Trump later said.
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“You’re going to see an aggressive affordability agenda,” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R) said.
The word became a major talking point following the election of Zohran Mamdani as mayor of New York City. Miami’s mayor, who oversees one of the most expensive cities in the country, has also been talking about the issue.
Jon Brooks, a real estate market analyst and the Co-Founder of Momentum Realty in Jacksonville, said we will be seeing prices come down this year and next year across the board.
“I’ve tracked the markets for the last decade,” Brooks said. “We track everything from employment, migration, demographics, affordability, all of these different factors that go into play to determine supply and demand of housing in Northeast Florida…We’ve had a 68% increase in the median home price over the last five years, which is an insane amount of appreciation in a short period of time. Now, recently, you haven’t seen the listing count go up because a lot of sellers are getting upset because their house isn’t selling for the price that they wanted it to. So we call it rage quitting and they’re taking their property off of the market and hoping that they’ll get a higher price next year. Of course, there’s no guarantee of that, and actually, we project about a six to seven percent decline next year in Northeast Florida based on what we’re seeing today.”
Jon says higher interest rates and a surge in inventory are shifting the balance giving buyers more leverage this year.
He also expects financial strain to show up more clearly in the market.
“We expect in Q2, Q3 to see a larger pickup in foreclosures, and we’re already starting to see short sales. No, it’s not everywhere. It’s people who purchased in 2022 to 2024 those vintage years at the peak prices,” he said.
But not all experts see 2026 as a warning sign.
“Of the top 10 markets for you to buy a home in, Jacksonville is in the top 10. So we’re very happy for that,” said Mario Gonzalez, NEFAR president.
This year, Jacksonville takes the #5 spot as a national homebuying hotspot.
“You can look at a lot of different analytics from economics to home prices to affordability, which we’ve been talking about all year,” Gonzales said.
Let’s take you back seven years now. If you can believe it, that was 2019. Back then, the average home was selling for about $250,000, according to NEFAR data.
By 2020, prices had climbed another $25,000 ($274,000), and another $50,000 or so in 2021 ($322,000).
By 2022, the median sales price increased by more than $100,000 to $380,000 ($380,358), which is about where we are today.
“Since 2022, we’ve just kind of been at the top of that plateau, gone up and down a little bit, but here in Florida, Northeast Florida, we’re still around the [$380,000], [$385,000] median price point for a home. And we have been that way for a couple of years,” Gonzalez said. “It’s a great sign, and a lot of people aren’t talking about that.”
Another good sign? Inventory is also reshaping negotiations, with more homes for sale and homes staying on the market longer, buyers have all the power.
“Where we’re ending 2025, the average days on market is about 45-50. That’s not bad,” Gonzalez said. “The new norm is shifting from a seller’s market over to a buyer’s market, and we are definitely right at that cusp of being a very strong buyer’s market.”
Both experts agree that affordability remains the biggest challenge.
“We really need prices to do a mean reversion and just come back to normal. This all happened because the Federal Reserve had their zero-interest rate policy from 2020 to 2022,” Brooks said. “Ever since then, we’ve had a market that’s just been declining because of the affordability. The consumer just cannot afford the monthly payment based on the salary that they’re paid here locally.”
“I feel good about where we are moving into 2026,” Gonzales said. “We really do. I mean, for NEFAR to come out and then say, hey, and the top we’re in the top ten for buying a home. Okay, not necessarily for selling a home because we’ve normalized so a lot of those sellers, like I just mentioned. But to buy a home, it can be a great time moving forward.”
The takeaway for 2026: experts say this is no longer a market where buyers should rush, but one where strategy, negotiation, and realistic expectations matter more than ever.
And there may be some modest relief ahead. Realtor.com predicts affordability will improve in 2026, with mortgage rates holding in the low six percent range and incomes rising faster than inflation.
While home prices are still expected to climb, the typical monthly mortgage payment is projected to dip slightly, marking the first annual decline since 2020 and bringing costs back below the key affordability threshold for many buyers.
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