Halfway through the 2025 college football season, things have been weird for Notre Dame fans. After falling at Miami by three points to start the year, Notre Dame followed it up by losing at home to Texas A&M.

Since then the Fighting Irish have been playing for its playoff lives, and hoping its opponents, especially the two teams it lost two, continue to look impressive. That means, rooting for historic Notre Dame rival Miami to win, and end the regular season undefeated.

That wasn’t the case Friday night as No. 2 Miami (FL) was upset at home by Louisville, 24-21. Carson Beck, who some had near the top of their Heisman Trophy rankings entering the week, threw four interceptions in the loss.

How Miami’s Upset Loss Hurts Notre Dame’s CFP Chances

Miami went from being rated second nationally entering the weekend to no longer controlling its own destiny regarding making the ACC Championship game.

Georgia Tech, Virginia, and Duke all enter Saturday unbeaten in conference play, while Louisville has one loss, but now holds the tiebreaker over Miami if both finish with the same conference record. While Miami has a manageable schedule to close, a trip to Pittsburgh late in the year has caused issues for the Hurricanes in the past.

The loss opens the door for Miami to potentially not make the ACC Championship game, but with it, also opens the door for another potential ACC team to make the College Football Playoff, which would make one less at-large spot available for Notre Dame.

Keys for Notre Dame to Make College Football Playoff

Notre Dame still has to take care of its own business, and that includes Saturday night, when it plays host to USC. The 5-1 Trojans are the best remaining team on Notre Dame’s schedule and figure to the toughest test of the final six games.

Simply put, if Notre Dame doesn’t win out, it has nothing to worry about as it has no chance of making the CFP.

The Miami loss leaves less wiggle room around the rest of the country. Most recently, I had Notre Dame in the CFP by a relatively safe margin, but that can change with the more Power Four teams that stay in that unbeaten or one-loss margin.

Overnight, Notre Dame’s College Football Playoff chances (ESPN FPI) dropped from 24.3% to 21.5%, almost entirely due to the Miami loss. The good news for Notre Dame is that if it wins what is viewed as its toughest remaining game this evening, those odds should increase significantly by Sunday morning.