The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ season rests on whether a 6-10 New Orleans Saints team can get a win on Sunday.
The Buccaneers did this to themselves. They lost control of the NFC South with a defeat last weekend. But all they could control was beating the Carolina Panthers on Saturday, and Tampa Bay responded with just their second win in their last nine games. They beat the Panthers 16-14 on a wet field in a game that wasn’t pretty from either side, but not much from the NFC South has been impressive this season.
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Carolina scored with 2:27 left, but the Panthers had only a few seconds left after the Buccaneers punted, and didn’t get a miracle score to win.
The NFC South champion will be 8-9. If the Atlanta Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday, the Panthers win the division. A tie in the Saints-Falcons games clinches the division title for Tampa Bay.
The Saints won’t be at full strength. Star receiver Chris Olave was ruled out with a blood clot in his lung. But the Buccaneers can’t complain if the Saints don’t come through for them; they had plenty of chances to win in the second half of the season and put the division away. Now all they can do is wait and hope.
Bucs take lead in rainy first half
The rain was the big story of the first half.
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Neither offense operated smoothly in a downpour. The Panthers especially struggled. They ran just 18 plays and had just 79 yards in the first half. But a mistake by Mayfield, which have been plentiful in the second half of the season, kept Carolina in the game. Mayfield never saw Panthers linebacker Christian Rozeboom in underneath coverage and threw an interception right to him. Rozeboom returned it to the Tampa Bay 19-yard line, and even a struggling Panthers offense could cash in on that. Bryce Young hit Tommy Tremble for an 8-yard touchdown pass, which cut Tampa Bay’s lead to 10-7.
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The Buccaneers dominated most of the rest of the half. When the Panthers got into Buccaneers territory just inside of the two-minute warning of the first half, Young threw an interception to Tampa Bay cornerback Jacob Parrish. A nice play by Mayfield to get the ball to Cade Otton for a 22-yard gain set up a field goal just before the end of the half. That gave the Buccaneers a 13-7 halftime lead.
The Buccaneers hadn’t played great but they were much better than the Panthers. But a scant six-point lead at halftime in the unpredictable weather conditions didn’t seem very comfortable.
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Panthers can’t generate much offense
It was a game with plenty at stake but it was sloppy on all sides. The officiating wasn’t clean either, with the crew missing some calls and making many other questionable ones.
There was no scoring in the third quarter as both teams struggled to maintain drives. Finally the Buccaneers got a field goal less than a minute into the fourth quarter to take a 16-7 lead. The Panthers then had their longest drive of the game up to that point, but an inexplicable attempt at a flea flicker ended up in a fumble when Rico Dowdle slipped as he flipped the ball back, and the Buccaneers recovered. That blooper summed up the game, and the NFC South as a whole this season.
The Buccaneers had a field goal blocked after that to keep Carolina’s hopes barely alive. Young hit Tetairoa McMillan for 40 yards on a desperate fourth-down heave to get inside the 10-yard line, and then Jalen Coker made a contested catch touchdown with 2:27 left. The extra point made the score 16-14. The flubbed flea flicker really haunted Carolina at that point. The Buccaneers got a first-down pass from Mayfield to Otton at the two-minute warning to practically seal the win.
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It was a showcase for a flawed division. The Buccaneers or Panthers will be just the fifth team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a losing record. The last one was the 2022 Buccaneers, who made it at 8-9 in Tom Brady’s final season. The Buccaneers and Panthers have shown repeatedly this season they aren’t playoff-level teams. But someone has to make it from each division. They’ll even get to host a game next weekend.
On Sunday, we’ll find out which of these teams will make the playoffs. One of them has to make it. Those are the rules.
Follow along with Yahoo Sports for live updates, highlights and more as the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers kick off the Saturday slate in Week 18.
Live coverage is over30 updatesSat, January 3, 2026 at 1:57 PM PST
Tarohn Finley
Sat, January 3, 2026 at 4:44 PM PST
Tarohn Finley
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers kept their playoff chances alive with a 16-14 win over the Carolina Panthers on Saturday.
Despite the loss, the Panthers can still win the NFC South if the Atlanta Falcons defeat the New Orleans Saints.
Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield was a magician in Saturday’s game, escaping the pocket before getting the ball into his receivers’ hands or scrambling on pivotal possessions. Mayfield was 16-22 for 203 yards, 1 touchdown and an interception.
Most of Mayfield’s big-time throws were delivered to tight end Cade Otton. Otton finished with seven catches for 94 yards and a touchdown, sealing the win after converting a crucial third down late in the fourth quarter. Bucs running back Bucky Irving had 85 yards on 26 carries.
The Panthers’ comeback attempt fell short, despite crucial throws from Bryce Young down the stretch. Young finished 24-35 for 266 yards, 1 touchdown and an interception. His biggest plays came on the final touchdown drive, where he converted on 4th and 8 before throwing a touchdown pass to Jalen Coker.
As he’s been all season, Young’s favorite target was rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan. McMillan had four catches for 85 yards.
Miscues plagued the Panthers’ offense. The team committed two turnovers, including a fumble on a flea flicker in the red zone. Costly penalties also halted drives and despite picking up his $1 million incentive, Rico Dowdle finished with only 10 yards.
Sat, January 3, 2026 at 4:24 PM PST
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Sat, January 3, 2026 at 4:20 PM PST
Tarohn Finley
Baker Mayfield’s pass to Cade Otton leads to a first down and runs the clock down to under 30 seconds before they punt. The Bucs lead 16-14 late in the fourth quarter.
The Panthers have 18 seconds left to score.
Sat, January 3, 2026 at 4:11 PM PST
Tarohn Finley
The Panthers are not out of the game. Bryce Young’s touchdown pass to Jalen Coker cuts the Buccaneers’ lead to two points. The Panthers were put in position to score after Young’s deep pass to Tetairoa McMillan on fourth down.
The Buccaneers lead the Panthers 16-14 late in the fourth quarter.
Sat, January 3, 2026 at 4:08 PM PST
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Sat, January 3, 2026 at 4:04 PM PST
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The Panthers take possession late in the fourth quarter after blocking the Bucs field goal.
Sat, January 3, 2026 at 3:49 PM PST
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The Bucs get the ball back after a Panthers fumble on a botched flea-flicker. Before the fumble, the Panthers were in scoring position.
The Bucs lead the Panthers 16-7 in the fourth quarter.
Sat, January 3, 2026 at 3:44 PM PST
Tarohn Finley
Chase McLaughlin’s third field goal of the day puts the Bucs up by nine in the fourth quarter. The Panthers have gone scoreless so far in the second half.
Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield is 12-17 for 146 yards, 1 touchdown and an interception.
Mayfield’s favorite target has been tight end Cade Otton, who has five catches for 62 yards and a touchdown. Bucs running back Bucky Irving has 19 carries for 66 yards.
Sat, January 3, 2026 at 3:32 PM PST
Tarohn Finley
Panthers running back Rico Dowdle is $1 million richer after Week 18’s game against the Buccaneers. Dowdle needed seven yards to collect $1 million. Dowdle has rushed for 10 yards on six carries. He can collect another $250,000 if he scores a touchdown.
The Bucs lead the Panthers 13-7 in the third quarter.
Sat, January 3, 2026 at 3:15 PM PST
Tarohn Finley
The Panthers went scoreless in the team’s first possession of the second half after a missed field goal. The Buccaneers take possession close to midfield early in the third quarter.
Sat, January 3, 2026 at 3:11 PM PST
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Sat, January 3, 2026 at 3:03 PM PST
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The Buccaneers got off to a fast start, scoring 10 points on their first two possessions. The Bucs had 40 plays compared to the Panthers’ 18. Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield is 10-15 for 130 yards, 1 touchdown and an interception.
Mayfield’s favorite target has been tight end Cade Otton, who has four catches for 54 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr., and Emeka Egbuka have combined for two catches for 34 yards, while Bucs running back Bucky Irving has 14 carries for 49 yards.
An interception by Panthers linebacker Christian Rozeboom shifted the momentum, and Panthers quarterback Bryce Young capitalized by connecting with tight end Tommy Tremble for a touchdown.
Young is 7-11 for 75 yards, 1 touchdown and an interception. Young already has more yards than he had in last week’s 27-10 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
Panthers running back Rico Dowdle has failed to get going so far. He has 5 carries for 5 yards. Panthers’ Tetairoa McMillan has been the best rookie receiver on the field, leading the team with 25 receiving yards on two catches.
Sat, January 3, 2026 at 3:02 PM PST
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Sat, January 3, 2026 at 2:46 PM PST
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What a play for Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield! Mayfield throws a pass midair to tight end Cade Otton.
Mayfield and Otton connected earlier on a touchdown. Mayfield is 10-15 for 130 yards, 1 touchdown and an interception.
Sat, January 3, 2026 at 2:40 PM PST
Tarohn Finley
The Panthers were driving down the field before Bucs cornerback Jacob Parrish stopped Carolina’s momentum with an interception.
Panther quarterback Bryce Young threw a ball that floated in the air long enough to allow Parrish to step in front of wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. That was the rookie cornerback’s second interception of the season.
Sat, January 3, 2026 at 2:36 PM PST
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The rain slowed down the Bucs’ offense. The drive was almost lost on a muffed punt. Bucs quarterback extended the drive after scrambling for a first down before sliding on the slippery field.
Mayfield followed up his first down by nearly close-lining running back Sean Tucker on a misfired handoff.
On the next play, Mayfield loses grip of the ball when trying to throw. The Bucs punted the ball to the Panthers.
Sat, January 3, 2026 at 2:19 PM PST
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Panthers finish off Christian Rozeboom’s interception with a touchdown by tight end Tommy Tremble. The Panthers had two quick punts before their scoring possession.
Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is 5-7 for 46 yards and a touchdown. The Bucs lead the Panthers 10-7 early in the second quarter.
Sat, January 3, 2026 at 2:16 PM PST
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The Panthers are in the red zone after an interception by linebacker Christian Rozeboom.
Sat, January 3, 2026 at 2:12 PM PST
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At the end of the first quarter, the Bucs lead the Panthers 10-0. The Panthers had a quick three-and-out in their first drive after a penalty set the team back on offense.
Penalties on defense extended the Bucs’ second drive. The Panthers have three penalties so far for 23 yards.
Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is 3-5 for 27 yards. All three of Panthers running back Rico Dowdle’s carries finished behind the line of scrimmage.
The Bucs have the ball in the second quarter after a quick Carolina possession.
Sat, January 3, 2026 at 2:06 PM PST
Tarohn Finley
Bucs kicker Chase McLaughlin scores a field goal to put the team up by 10 late in the first quarter.
Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield led the way, going 6-8 for 79 yards and a touchdown. Bucs running back Bucky Irving has six carries for 26 yards.