It started back in the spring.
Mike Vrabel made it a point to tell Drake Maye, over and over again, that he needed to lead the Patriots.
Whether it was after a touchdown in practice or during down moments between plays and between series, Vrabel has been on his young quarterback to get on the rest of the team. How Maye did it was up to him, it seemed. But his head coach clearly wanted him to do something. Be vocal. Be active. Get others to feel his presence.
And has been the case with just about every facet of Maye’s job this year, he’s taken to the coaching he’s received. Though he has a different style than his commanding head coach, Maye has found a way to lead in his own way.
He’s been demonstrative on the field lately — celebrating a long TreVeyon Henderson run from the ground after making a block, encouraging undrafted rookie Efton Chism III after his first regular-season touchdown — and on the sidelines. Late in a Week 16 game against the Ravens, he marched down the length of the bench area in the fourth quarter, lauding his teammates at decibel levels that previously seemed to be rare for Maye during games.
“Everybody in their own way, especially quarterbacks and head coaches, have to find a way to reach the team or represent the organization,” Vrabel said. “There’s a lot of different ways that Drake can do it. We focused on making connections and getting to know people.
“You have to say things that get people’s attention, get players’ attention, where there’s a different version in your office or locker room, in the meeting rooms or on the field. It’s just about getting a feel for each person that you’re trying to get a message across to or try to be able to connect with to help them do their job better.”
This week, Maye will have one more opportunity to lead a team that has effectively heeded its coach’s demand for “no naps” down the stretch. Led by a historic performance from Maye against the hapless Jets last weekend, the Patriots put themselves in position to have a chance at the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a victory against the Dolphins in the season finale.
Even if they don’t end up with a bye in the first round of the playoffs, Maye knows the Patriots can use their Week 18 opportunity against Miami as a way to stay sharp before they embark on the win-or-go-home portion of their schedule. But they can’t let up. No nodding off.
“It’s a great time to work in practice and work in the game on catching a groove,” Maye said. “Continue to try to get better, try to catch a stride coming into the playoffs and feel like we’re playing our best football.”
With Maye leading them, here are the matchups that’ll determine whether the Patriots can push their record to a remarkable 14-3 on Sunday against the Dolphins…
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Drake Maye vs. Miami’s Cover 2 defense
The Dolphins aren’t going to be an explosive-play machine with Quinn Ewers at quarterback and their most dynamic weapon De’Von Achane doubtful to play (shoulder). Therefore, to keep this one close, Miami is going to have to rely on its two-high safety coverages to try to slow down Maye and the Patriots offense.
The Dolphins are using Cover 2 more frequently than any team in football this season (27.4 percent of dropbacks), which can help dissuade opposing passers from testing them deep. Against Maye, arguably the league’s most efficient down-the-field passer, Cover 2 isn’t a terrible option. The Patriots are comfortably a top-half-of-the-NFL passing team against those looks, but they aren’t the best (or second or third) in football, which may represent a favorable strategy.
Against Cover 2, since Week 11, the Patriots are averaging 8.8 yards per attempt (11th in the NFL) and they’ve produced a quarterback rating of 102.3 (11th). Maye is completing 76.5 percent of his passes against Cover 2 in that time, which is 10th-best in the league.
If he does see Cover 2 on a regular basis, Maye might have to be willing to find windows in the intermediate range over the middle of the field. And there should be windows there. According to Sumer Sports, the Dolphins have allowed the second-worst EPA per play figure against intermediate passes (traveling between 10 and 19 yards down the field), and they are third-worst in terms of EPA per play against passes targeted between the numbers.
Matchup that will surprise you
Patriots defense vs. Dolphins outside runs
Even if the Dolphins are without Achane, their runs to the outside will still pose threats to Vrabel’s defense. Jaylen Wright’s speed (4.38-second 40 prior to 2024 draft) and rookie Ollie Gordon’s strength (6-foot-1, 230 pounds) near the line of scrimmage will test New England’s ability to build sturdy edges and funnel runs back inside.
Miami runs to the outside on 60.4 percent of their handoffs, per Sumer, which is the second-highest rate in the league. With head coach Mike McDaniel cooking up creative ways in which to get his backs into space — misdirection, motion, pullers, etc. — they are seventh-best in football in EPA per rush to the outside.
The Patriots, meanwhile, have been stressed on the edges often since coming back from their bye week. Against the Bills, Ravens and Jets, the Patriots have allowed the ninth-most yards per attempt on runs to the outside (5.8).
Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Jaylen Wright’s speed could test the Patriots’ vulnerable run defense.
Matchup that could ruin your Sunday
Patriots running backs vs. Jordyn Brooks
The Dolphins have one of the best linebackers in football patrolling the middle of their defense in Jordyn Brooks. According to Pro Football Focus, he’s the third-highest graded run defender at his position, and he’s the second-highest graded tackler behind only Bobby Wagner of Washington.
Brooks is impactful as a pass-rusher as well, entering into the rush on 15.5 percent of his snaps, according to NextGen Stats. Since 2020, no player with at least 250 pass-rush reps, per NGS, has produced a higher pressure rate than Brooks at 26 percent.
Whether it’s as a run defender or a rusher — where New England backs will likely have to chip in on protecting against him — Brooks has the potential to make a game-changing play or two that could sour your Sunday.
Matchup that will make your Sunday
Zak Kuhr vs. Quinn Ewers
Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Dolphins rookie QB Quinn Ewers has excelled on play-action passes this season.
Vrabel told reporters he has appreciated what he’s seen in studying the last two weeks of rookie Quinn Ewers’ work as the starter for Miami.
“I saw an energy at that Tampa Bay game (in Week 17),” Vrabel said. “I saw youthful energy. A guy that’s trying to take advantage of his opportunity… He seems to have good command of the operation.
“There’s a lot of moving parts with that offense, the shifts, the motions, the jet motions, the ball handling. It’s not just standard. He’s under center, he’s in the gun, he’s in the pistol, and then being able to execute the play action and the boot game. I think he’s gotten off to a good start.”
There should be a few ways in which the Patriots can take advantage of Ewers’ inexperience, though. He’s struggled against man-to-man coverage in a relatively small sample size, completing 33.3 percent of his passes and averaging 2.0 yards per attempt against man looks the last two weeks, per Sports Info Solutions.
The Patriots should also be ready to close on the ball quickly in the short-to-intermediate passing game since Ewers has struggled to get anything going down the field. On pass attempts that have traveled 15 yards or more beyond the line of scrimmage, he has five completions on 14 dropbacks for one touchdown and two picks. His rating on those throws is 58.2.
Approaching this matchup with a sound, risk-averse plan might benefit Kuhr as well.
For a young passer, Ewers has handled the blitz relatively well. The Patriots, who blitz at about a league-average rate, may want to limit those types of calls because Ewers seems to have a pretty good idea of where his outlets are. He’s completed eight of 11 attempts against the blitz in three games for 112 yards.
Additionally, a less-aggressive plan might suit the Patriots since the Dolphins will try to get the Patriots to bite on play-fakes. They’ve used 23 play-action snaps to help Ewers over the last two weeks — second-most in the NFL. Ewers has completed a whopping 82.6 percent of his passes when using play-action and he has a 108.7 rating. When he’s not given the benefit of play-action calls? There’s a massive drop-off, as he has completed 51.7 percent of his passes without play-action the last two weeks (worst in the NFL on such attempts) and his rating is 68.2.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Dolphins 13