Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 18’s game between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins.

New England is 13–3, and the final Sunday still has teeth. Miami is 7–9, and the week feels like a scouting meeting for 2026. The Patriots can still climb the AFC ladder, and that demands a real four-quarter posture. This rivalry always drags ego into the cold, even when the standings separate. Gillette should feel like a stress test, not a season-ending sendoff. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 18’s game between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The efficiency gap points one way, and it sharpens in the recent window. New England sits at +0.127 offensive EPA/play and -0.032 defensive EPA/play allowed, while Miami sits at +0.003 and +0.069. Over the last five, the Patriots jump to +0.273, and Miami still allows +0.053. Drake Maye (QB) carries +0.290 EPA/dropback, and his clean-pocket ceiling hits +0.546, with his recent six-week surge climbing to +0.407 EPA/dropback on 165 dropbacks. He has also been a real part of the ground game, adding +0.245 EPA/rush while taking 20.4% of the team’s rush share in the last six, and that forces defenses to defend the quarterback as a runner on money downs. Maye’s downfield ceiling is the separator too, because he’s at +0.685 EPA on medium throws and +1.064 EPA on deep throws, which is how a favorite breaks a game open without needing perfect early-down rhythm.

The Patriots’ pass game is also concentrated in a way that creates reliable weekly outcomes, because Stefon Diggs (WR) has turned 24 targets into 21 catches for 291 yards, good for +1.042 EPA/target and 2.97 YPRR with 1.8 explosive plays per game. Hunter Henry (TE) keeps the chains from dying, sitting at 19 targets for 14 catches with a 73.7% success rate and +0.718 EPA/target, and that’s the exact profile that punishes blitz looks when the ball has to come out fast. Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) also matters as a pass-game stabilizer, catching 13 of 14 targets for 149 yards with +0.462 EPA/target, and that checkdown efficiency is how an offense survives a high-pressure environment. TreVeyon Henderson (RB) brings the explosive edge on the ground, carrying 49 times for 300 yards at 6.12 YPC with +0.097 EPA/rush, while Stevenson has been just as efficient per carry at 5.53 YPC with +0.094 EPA/rush and a 50.0% rushing success rate. That run profile is not cosmetic, because the line has boosted the entire operation lately, jumping to 5.30 YPC and a 48.7% rushing success rate over the last six.

Miami’s defense can still bite, because it owns a 9.0% sack rate over the last six with a 28.1% pressure-to-sack conversion, and that’s a real path to ugly possessions. That matters, because New England has lived with heat all year at a 44.8% pressure rate, and it still sits at 41.7% lately, so the Patriots need answers built into the call sheet. Miami’s offense looks cleaner on paper than it feels on the field, because Quinn Ewers (QB) lives on a small sample at +0.048 EPA/dropback with a 40.6% success rate. He leans hard on play action at 39.1%, and he has leaned even harder on screens with a 15.6% screen rate, and that tells the story of an offense trying to manufacture cheap completions. When defenses blitz him, that screen rate spikes to 22.2%, and that’s a neon sign that Miami wants to keep him out of long-developing reads.

Ewers has also shown a sharp coverage split, because he has been excellent in limited action versus Cover 2 at +1.045 EPA/dropback, but he’s been a problem versus man coverage at -0.398 EPA/dropback, and that matchup tension matters if New England plays press-man on early downs. Miami’s receiver efficiency has also been uneven, because Jaylen Waddle (WR) has carried 22.9% target share but has posted -0.173 EPA/target, which is the profile of volume without clean wins. The bright spot has been the tight end room, where Greg Dulcich (TE) has popped with 3.58 YPRR and +0.743 EPA/target, and that is the kind of short-area efficiency Miami needs if the outside is squeezed.

De’Von Achane (RB) remains the most explosive touch if he can go, owning 50.3% of the team’s rush share with 6.08 YPC, 4.78 YAC per attempt, and +0.113 EPA/rush, plus +0.275 EPA/target as a receiver. If he can’t go full throttle, Miami leans on Jaylen Wright (RB) at 5.14 YPC with 4.05 YAC per attempt and +0.124 EPA/rush with a 50.0% rushing success rate, but the shape turns boom-or-bust fast because Miami’s negative-play profile has been harsher. Over the last six, Miami has a 12.5% sack-plus-interception rate versus New England’s 9.5%, and that difference is usually the margin in a big spread game.

Dolphins vs. Patriots pick, best bet

The Miami cover case lives in two things that travel: sacks and red-zone finishes. Miami’s pressure doesn’t need huge volume when it converts at 28.1%, and New England’s protection profile invites it. The Dolphins can also score when they arrive, sitting at a 69.2% red-zone touchdown rate over the last six. Miami’s run game can pop explosives too, with a 14.0% explosive rush rate over the last six. That case still loses for me, because the Patriots play cleaner football in the down-to-down grind. New England owns the better explosive pass rate at 15.8%, and it takes fewer negative passing snaps with a 9.5% sack-plus-interception rate versus Miami’s 12.5%. Miami’s defense also bleeds touchdowns when it bends, allowing a 76.5% red-zone touchdown rate lately. That combination turns New England drives into sevens even when the pocket feels noisy.

New England should lean into man blocking and outside zone because the line has moved the run game to 5.30 YPC and a 48.7% rushing success rate over the last six. The Patriots should keep Henderson and Stevenson downhill early, then let Maye hunt the intermediate windows off play action. Diggs should live as the primary efficiency lever, because his 2.97 YPRR and +1.042 EPA/target turn routine throws into real points. Miami should answer with wide-zone rhythm and play-action shots, but New England can squeeze the throwing lanes with man coverage. Ewers has cratered versus man at -0.398 EPA/dropback, and that’s where the Patriots can force screens and checkdowns to carry the entire drive. If New England stays aggressive on fourth down and finishes in the red zone, the number should hold.

Ecosystem note, here, because it really does matter: If Denver’s game state swings the bye math early, New England could get protective late and turn the fourth quarter into a clock-drain instead of a statement. Still!

I’m laying Patriots -13.5 with the total at 45.5, and I expect New England to treat this like a playoff dress rehearsal. The hidden-points edge supports a big number, because the Patriots convert 75.0% on fourth-down tries, while Miami converts 50.0%. New England also owns game-flipping special teams, with three return touchdowns, and that can crack a spread open without perfect offense. Miami can counter with cleaner kicking, sitting at 92.9% on field goals versus New England at 86.7%, but that only matters if the game stays tight.

I’m calling 31–13 Patriots, because Miami’s defensive red-zone leak rate invites a multi-touchdown margin.

Best bet: Patriots -13.5 (-105) vs. Dolphins

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I’m riding Stefon Diggs (WR) 60+ receiving yards at +115, and I’m good playing it down to +100. Over the last six, Diggs has turned 24 targets into 21 catches for 291 yards, and the efficiency has been elite at +1.042 EPA/target with 2.97 YPRR and 1.8 explosive plays per game. Miami’s pass rush has spiked lately with a 9.0% sack rate and a 28.1% pressure-to-sack conversion, so the clean counter is Maye leaning into his most reliable separator on quick rhythm throws. Diggs also fits the “front-load the damage” script, because New England has been ripping at +0.273 EPA/play over the last five, and those early possessions are where this prop can get most of its work before any late-game throttle risk.

Best prop lean: Stefon Diggs 60+ receiving yards (+115)

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