The 12-team College Football Playoff is down to the final four teams, and the semifinal matchup are set.

The first quarterfinal game saw a massive upset, as Miami beat No. 1 Ohio State outright 24-14 as a 7.5-point underdog on New Year’s Eve.

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No. 6 Ole Miss provided the second big upset of this year’s CFP by beating No. 3 Georgia outright 39-34 as a 6-point underdog. No. 1 seed Indiana (38-3 over Alabama) and No. 5 seed Oregon (23-0 over Texas Tech) won convincingly.

Our college football handicapping duo of Corbie Craig and Ed Feng provide a best bet on both CFP semifinal games below.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM. This file will be updated.

Craig: In one of the most entertaining playoff games we’ve seen, Ole Miss showed just how high its ceiling can be. After a turbulent final month, the Rebels came out composed — and, most importantly, allowed zero sacks. That matters as they now face one of the nation’s premier defensive fronts.

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That protection wasn’t accidental. Ole Miss mixed sharp play-calling with a running back capable of stealing yards against pressure looks, while quarterback Trinidad Chambliss’ mobility consistently erased negative plays. When your QB can extend downs and your run game can punish blitzes, elite pass rushes lose their edge.

Miami’s defense is built around that front, and if Ole Miss neutralizes it again, the matchup tilts. The Hurricanes’ offense is explosive, but it has shown stretches of stagnation when forced into longer drives.

Coming off a statement win, Ole Miss’ balance and protection gives it a real path to control this game.

Bet: Ole Miss +3 (-110)

Feng: I’m blown away with what Trinidad Chambliss did against Georgia. He had a 50% passing success rate and 7.87 yards per pass attempt in his second game against a unit full of NFL talent. This surpassed his metrics (44.4%, 7.31) in the previous game against Georgia and the college football averages (40.7%, 6.37).

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But maybe we shouldn’t be surprised. Chambliss is following the story of Cam Ward and Joe Burrow. All three quarterbacks played elite-level basketball in high school as a point guard. I’m guessing this focus on a second sport delayed their progress as a quarterback. All three players needed multiple years after high school and transfers to develop.

However, the wait has been worth it in all three cases. My guess is that they learned something about decision-making playing point guard in basketball that eventually translated into playing quarterback. This is supported by Ferris State coach Tony Annese, who said this about his former QB Chambliss, “You see his capacity to have great vision as a point guard, and I think that really transfers to being a quarterback.”

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Chambliss needs to carry this team. Of the eight offenses and defenses left in the playoff, the Ole Miss defense is by far the worst unit. They rank 30th in my adjusted success rate and 45th in my adjusted yards per play while the other seven units have top-10 credentials. In addition, Ole Miss is worse against the run than the pass.

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Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. missed two games due to injury but has stormed back against Texas A&M and Ohio State. Based on an assumption of 18 carries, my rushing yards model predicts 95.4 yards for Fletcher. My member model has Miami by 4 over Ole Miss, so I see more value in a prop.

Bet: Mark Fletcher Jr. over 81.5 rushing yards

Craig: Off impressive wins, Indiana–Oregon is being billed as a heavyweight matchup, but a deeper look shows a clear flaw on the Ducks’ side: field position.

Oregon consistently strung together long drives, yet rarely flipped them into real scoring chances. Their average scoring drive traveled just 24 yards, showing how dependent the offense was on short fields rather than sustained efficiency. When forced to go the length of the field, the Ducks struggled.

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Indiana is well-equipped to exploit that. The Hoosiers can extend drives offensively, and when stalled, their Australian punter Mitch McCarthy regularly flips the field — limiting returns and pinning opponents inside the 20. That pressure compounds against an Oregon offense that already leaned on short fields to score.

With Indiana’s interior defensive push likely forcing quick throws and limiting explosives, Oregon may again find itself needing long, mistake-free marches to score — something we didn’t see the Ducks accomplish against Texas Tech.

Bet: Oregon team total under 21.5 (-119)

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Feng: Indiana is an elite team rightfully favored to win a national championship. The Hoosiers already have a 30-20 win at Oregon this season, a game in which they had to overcome a pick 6 by QB Fernando Mendoza. In that prior game, QB Dante Moore had a poor performance, with a 27.5% passing success rate and 3.78 yards per pass attempt (40.7%, 6.37 averages). Moore is a much better QB than that.

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Oregon is a championship-caliber team as well, and ranks 10th on offense and fifth on defense in my adjusted yards per play metric. They have the talent and coaching to win this game outright. My member model favors Indiana by 1.4 points. As much as I hate to go against Curt Cignetti, the spread is too high in this game.

Lean: Oregon +4 or better