Jan. 7, 2026, 3:30 p.m. ET
The No. 10-seeded Miami Hurricanes (12-2) and No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels (13-1) meet in Thursday’s College Football Playoff semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Arizona. The contest at State Farm Stadium will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA football odds around the Miami vs. Ole Miss odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
Miami beat the Texas A&M Aggies 10-3 in the CFP first round and advanced to the semifinals with a 24-14 win Dec. 31 over the No. 2-seed Ohio State Buckeyes. The Hurricanes were 7.5-point underdogs as the Under (40.5) hit. The Hurricanes lost twice midseason, by a combined 9 points, but have rallied with excellent metrics on both sides of the ball and 6 straight wins.
Ole Miss was a +6.5 underdog when it defeated the third-seeded Georgia Bulldogs 39-34 (Over 53.5) in a Jan. 1 quarterfinal. The squad with the 10th-best offense in the nation (37.6 points per game) has scored 30-plus in 7 consecutive wins since losing 43-35 to Georgia on Oct. 18. They beat the Tulane Green Wave 41-10 in the CFP first round.
The Hurricanes and Rebels have met on just 3 other occasions. Ole Miss won 2 of those 3 games, which all took place between 1936-51.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
Watch NCAA football on Fubo!Miami vs. Ole Miss odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 3:29 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Miami -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Ole Miss +135 (bet $100 to win $135)Against the spread (ATS): Miami -3.5 (-105) | Ole Miss +3.5 (-115)Over/Under (O/U): 52.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)Miami vs. Ole Miss picks and predictionsPrediction
Miami 31, Ole Miss 24
No interest; PASS.
Over its last 3 games, Miami held Ohio State, the Texas A&M Aggies and Pitt Panthers to a combined 24 points. Those 3 squads rank 21st, 19th and 20th, respectively, in NCAA-I scoring. And the ‘Canes held the both the Aggies and Buckeyes to less-than-300 yards of total offense.
And that excellent UM defense has metrics that look good against both the run and the pass. The Hurricanes stuff a lot of plays at or near the line of scrimmage. In most areas of Mississippi strength, save perhaps for Rebels explosiveness, Miami counters well.
Look for Miami to come out on top in the exchange of havoc plays. Winning the turnover battle would not be a surprise either. UM’s 25 takeaways rank ninth in FBS. And the Miami offense has only turned ball over 13 times.
Add in a bit of margin when it comes to the ability to get and deny TDs in red-zone opportunities on offense and defense.
It all adds up to the Hurricanes having enough of a chance at a 7-point scoreboard edge to make MIAMI -3.5 (-105) a value.
The last 7 times Ole Miss has been an underdog the Over has hit 6 times. Expect a clash of pace, with Miami playing the part of the tortoise and Ole Miss playing the hare. But Miami can also mix in some strategic quick-snap spurts and has been a bit more willing to do that over recent games.An extra turnover or 2 and some ensuing short-field opportunities drive more lean toward extra scoring. Both sides have kickers they can rely upon, and the NFL venue figures as a fast track.
The OVER 52.5 (-105) is the value end of this one.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Auburn / Clemson / Colorado / Duke / Florida / Florida State / Georgia / Iowa / Kentucky / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Nebraska / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Tennessee / Texas / Texas A&M / UCLA / USC / Washington / Wisconsin / College Sports Wire / High School / Recruiting
Our team of savvy editors independently handpicks all recommendations. If you purchase through our links, the USA Today Network may earn a commission. Prices were accurate at the time of publication but may change.
Gambling involves risk. Please only gamble with funds that you can comfortably afford to lose.  While we do our utmost to offer good advice and information we cannot be held responsible for any loss that may be incurred as a result of gambling.  We do our best to make sure all the information that we provide on this site is correct. However, from time to time mistakes will be made and we will not be held liable. Please check any stats or information if you are unsure how accurate they are. No guarantees are made with regards to results or financial gain. All forms of betting carry financial risk and it is up to the individual to make bets with or without the assistance of information provided on this site and we cannot be held responsible for any loss that may be incurred as a result of following the betting tips provided on this site.  Past performances do not guarantee success in the future and betting odds fluctuate from one minute to the next. The material contained on this site is intended to inform, entertain and educate the reader and in no way represents an inducement to gamble legally or illegally or any sort of professional advice.
Gannett may earn revenue from sports betting operators for audience referrals to betting services. Sports betting operators have no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. Terms apply, see operator site for Terms and Conditions. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Call the National Council on Problem Gambling 24/7 at 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, OH), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN). Must be 21 or older to gamble. Sports betting and gambling are not legal in all locations. Be sure to comply with laws applicable where you reside. It is your sole responsibility to act in accordance with your local laws.