The second 12-team College Football Playoff will end with one team looking for its first national title in 24 years and the other for its first, period.
After the semifinals produced an instant classic Miami win against Ole Miss and an epic beatdown by Indiana against Oregon, it’ll be IU vs. The U on Jan. 19 on the Hurricanes’ home field.
No. 1 Indiana (15-0) vs. No. 10 Miami (13-2)
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
When: 7:30 p.m., Jan. 19 (ESPN)
BetMGM line: Indiana -7.5
The Athletic‘s projections: Indiana has a 71 percent chance to win
History lesson: Way back in the mid-1960s, the Hoosiers and Hurricanes played twice and split regular-season games in Miami. They have not played each other since and their programs have had little in common.
The Hurricanes put together one of the great two-decade runs in college football history, breaking through in 1983 by upsetting unbeaten No. 1 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl — Miami’s home field — under program patriarch Howard Schnellenberger. Miami won three more titles under Jimmy Johnson and Dennis Erickson before NCAA scandals contributed to a fall-off in the mid-to-late 1990s.
Butch Davis guided the Hurricanes to a resurgence before jumping to the NFL, and Larry Coker won Miami’s last national title in 2001 with one of the most talented rosters ever assembled. Miami then moved to the ACC and vanished from the national stage for 20 years until coach Mario Cristobal brought his alma mater back to play for its sixth national championship, again on its home field. Cristobal is 35-18 with Miami.
Indiana, on the other hand, came into the season with more losses than any other major college football program and no Big Ten titles since 1967. In two years under coach Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers are 26-2, reached No. 1 in the polls for the first time, have made the Playoff twice and now are a victory away from becoming the first first-time national champion since 1996 Florida — and maybe the most unlikely national champion ever. Yep. Ever.
First look: Miami barely slipped into the CFP field as the 10th seed and final at-large pick, but it has more than proved its worthiness since, powering through No. 7 Texas A&M, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 6 Ole Miss on the way to the title game.
The Hurricanes’ running game has cranked it up in the postseason behind powerful Mark Fletcher and a huge offensive line. The third-year back has run for 395 yards on 58 carries in the CFP.
That allowed 23-year-old quarterback Carson Beck to mostly be a game-manager, though the Georgia transfer delivered some big throws and the go-ahead touchdown run on Miami’s final drive against Ole Miss in the semifinal. Freshman receiver Malachi Toney has been a versatile game-changer all season.
Mario Cristobal and Miami lost two regular-season games but are on a roll in search of the program’s first national title since 2001. (Jerome Miron / Imagn Images)
Indiana heads into the championship game unbeaten and seemingly peaking.
The Hoosiers outscored No. 9 Alabama in the Rose Bowl and No. 5 Oregon in the Peach Bowl on Friday night by a combined 94-25. Going back to the Big Ten title games against Ohio State, the Hoosiers have allowed 35 points against three CFP teams.
Cornerback D’Angelo Ponds, one of several James Madison transfers Cignetti brought with him to IU in 2024, set the tone in the Peach Bowl with a pick six on the first play against Oregon and Dante Moore.
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza will return home — he went to high school in Miami — as a Heisman Trophy winner to face the Canes’ ferocious pass rush.
Ole Miss and the elusive Trinidad Chambliss did a solid job of neutralizing All-American Rueben Bain Jr. and the Hurricanes’ front line. Miami leads the nation with 47 sacks. Mendoza can move, too, but he is a different level of precision-passing threat, with the receiving trio of Elijah Sarratt, Omar Cooper Jr. and Charlie Becker providing a variety of targets.
In the CFP, Mendoza has eight touchdown passes and five incomplete passes. He leads the FBS with 41 TD passes for the season.
Indiana is a finely tuned machine. The Hoosiers make opponents work for everything in every phase of the game. Miami has been more glitchy in general, prone to penalties and self-inflicted wounds.
The Hurricanes played their cleanest game of the CFP in the quarterfinal against Ohio State and will probably need a similar performance to upset the Big Ten champions Hoosiers.
Why we should be excited: Either The U will truly be back and deliver the ACC its first title since Clemson in 2018 or Indiana will complete the most improbable turnaround story in college football history with a championship, the third straight for the Big Ten.