The Buffalo Bills are putting finishing touches in their game plan ahead of Sunday’s playoff matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Buffalo enters the postseason with a 12-5, having secured the six seed in the AFC. The offense averaged 28.3 points per game (fourth in the NFL), with the defense allowing 21.5. The Bills’ league-leading 2,714 rushing yards drove the success, despite passing inconsistencies and run defense issues.
Finishing 4-1 in the last five games may give Buffalo some momentum, but there are key players who appeared on the decline in that stretch, and could make things bleak in certain aspects. My selections for this week are based on season performances with recency weight, supported by metrics like Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades, DVOA, and CPOE.
Bills running back James Cook III runs onto the field during player introductions before their last regular season game against the Jets at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026 Shawn Dowd/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Cook dominated as the NFL’s rushing champion, fueling the league’s top ground attack. He totaled 1,621 yards on 309 carries (5.2 YPC) and 12 touchdowns, exceeding previous highs. Over Weeks 14-18, Cook averaged 112 yards per game at 6.1 YPC, with a 78.4 PFF run grade and 4.2 yards after contact per attempt, forcing 42 missed tackles (top-10).
His burst supports a 28% play-action rate (eighth-highest), ideal against Jacksonville’s NFL-best run defense. Getting Jimbo and the running game going could make a huge difference in Sunday’s matchup.
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – DECEMBER 28: Brandin Cooks #18 of the Buffalo Bills catches a pass during the first quarter of the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Highmark Stadium on December 28, 2025 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Images) Getty Images
Brandin Cooks has injected speed into the offense, struggling early with some drops but now surging at a crucial time. With five receptions on 11 targets for 114 yards (22.8 yards per catch) as a Bill this season, his Week 17 outing versus the Eagles — four receptions for 101 yards (25.3 average, including a 50-yarder) — demonstrated big-play potential in a tight 13-12 defeat.
Boasting a 75.0 PFF receiving grade, 3.0 average separation (Next Gen Stats), and 2.1 yards per route run, Cooks’ velocity challenges defenses, vital for stretching Jacksonville’s 24th-ranked pass DVOA and helping Allen.
Jan 4, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) makes a catch defended by New York Jets cornerback Samuel Womack III (39) during the first half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
The third-year pro has become a go-to option, thriving when healthy and compensating for wide receiver shortcomings. Kincaid accumulated 571 yards on 39 receptions (14.6 average) and five touchdowns in 12 games, earning an 82 PFF grade with only two drops and 4.8 YAC per reception. In the final stretch, he averaged 72 yards per game with four scores, posting +0.8 CPOE on targets and 2.4 yards per route run.
Looking healthy in his 10 snaps against the New York Jets in the Week 18 35-8 win, Kincaid moved sharply and appears healthy and set to impact the passing attack. His red-zone effectiveness (three TDs inside the 20) could help exploit Jacksonville’s 24th TE DVOA in coverage.
Head-Scratchers: Trending Down
Jan 4, 2026; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) warms up before the game against the New York Jets at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
The star quarterback heads into the playoffs with some question marks, though capable of rebounds. Allen passed for 3,668 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, adding 579 rushing yards and 14 scores for 39 total TDs — one short of 40 for the first time since 2021.
His Week 17 performance against the Eagles included a key missed throw that might have secured victory in the 13-12 loss, which may have cost Buffalo better playoff seeding. Health concerns persist: His foot injury is reportedly mending, but past resilience through a broken hand last season and a torn elbow ligament in 2022 fuels some doubt there. Possible concealment could affect mobility (5.2 YPC, below career 6.0) and precision (69.3% completion, -0.5 CPOE recently).
We know 17 plays at his best when the lights are the brightest, and it gives me hope. We also know his willingness to play through painful injuries, and it can rattle him during a tough matchup. This team will go as far as Allen can take them, so hopefully the foot is really feeling better, and he can count on some help from his coaching staff and teammates in such a way that he can begin trending in the right direction at the best possible time.
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 16: General manager Brandon Beane of the Buffalo Bills looks on prior to the NFL 2025 game between Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on November 16, 2025 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Bryan Bennett/Getty Images) Getty Images
Beane’s recent decisions have faced plenty of backlash, and reveal roster flaws. Opting against wide receiver additions at the trade deadline after misjudging the level of the room during the offseason has caused concerns regarding his ability to build a winning roster around Allen.
Also, head coach Sean McDermott’s dissatisfaction with the Ingram/Slay fiasco has been palpable. The potential rift between the two former Panthers doesn’t stop here, though. McDermott has highlighted Jakobi Meyers’ value for Jacksonville (483 yards, three TDs), an option Beane could have pursued but abandoned for an unsuccessful attempt at Jalen Waddle.
With eight years together in Buffalo and no hardware during Allen’s prime, the roar for change could increase without playoff success this season. Right now, McDermott just seems safer than Beane. Time will tell.
3. The Middle Linebacker position
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 18: Terrel Bernard #8 of the Buffalo Bills reacts with his teammate Shaq Thompson #45 of the Buffalo Bills during an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins at Highmark Stadium on September 18, 2025 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images) Getty Images
Linebackers Terrel Bernard and Shaq Thompson have struggled through a challenging season, hampered by injuries and inconsistent play, which has contributed to defensive instability. Bernard played 12 games, recording 44 solo tackles and 21 assists for 65 total, but a poor 48.8 PFF grade, with weak coverage (46.7) and run defense (57.1), often struggling to disengage from blockers and sidelined with lower leg injuries.
Thompson, when available, managed 33 solo tackles and 23 assists for 56 total in 12 games, with a 64.8 PFF overall (70.2 coverage), but injuries — including a recent neck issue restricting practice this week — have limited him.
The Bills’ 28th-ranked run defense (4.8 YPC allowed) relies on one of them stepping up; without it, the 12th DVOA unit risks further decline. The presence of one of those two leaders in the middle is vital for McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich’s success with the unit.
Cole Bishop (S) with 85 tackles, three INTs, and an 82.1 PFF coverage grade (-0.15 EPA/target); Gregory Rousseau (DE) tallying seven sacks (78.6 pressure rate); Khalil Shakir (WR) offering reliability (719 yards, 75.8% catch rate).Keon Coleman (WR) inefficiency (404 yards, 58.3 PFF);Joshua Palmer (WR) low output (303 yards on 22 catches, 0 TDs), injured again;Maxwell Hairston (CB) injured last week (14 solo tackles, two INTs), probably not healthy for the playoff run.
Catch up on all this and more with the latest edition of Leading the Charge!