The Miami Hurricanes (13-2) will face the Indiana Hoosiers (15-0) in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game on Monday, January 19th at 7:30pm on ESPN. The Hoosiers have a 68.3% win expectancy per ESPN, and are 7.5 point favorites per Las Vegas.
In order to get here Indiana has beaten Illinois, Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon twice. In order for Miami to get here the ‘Canes knocked off Notre Dame, USF, FSU, Pitt, Texas A&M, Ohio State and Ole Miss but lost to Louisville and SMU.
In part one of the series we’ll look at the Peach Bowl matchup between Indiana and Oregon.
The Hoosiers are 1st in SP+ with the 3rd offense, 2nd defense and 33rd kicking game in FBS. The Hurricanes are 8th in SP+ overall, with the 21st offense, 6th defense, and 25th kicking game.
On money downs, Indiana is 1st in the country on 3rd down converting 57% of their attempts. The Hoosiers are 85th on 4th downs converting 50% of the time. Miami is 17th in FBS on 3rd down hitting on 46% of their tries and the ‘Canes are 11th on 4th down conversions by moving the chains 70% of the time when it matters most.
Indiana’s 3rd down defense is 9th in FBS, holding opponents to converting on only 31.49% of their attempts while Miami is 11th and holding opposing offenses to just 31.72% of their conversions.
Indiana is 1st in the country in turnover margin per game. The Hoosiers are +1.5 after their Peach Bowl against Oregon. Miami is 16th in the country with a +0.6 TOMPG.
ATLANTA, GA – JANUARY 09: LB Kaiden Turner #14 of the Indiana Hoosiers recovers a blocked punt in the fourth quarter during the Indiana Hoosiers versus Oregon Ducks College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on January 9, 2026, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by John Adams/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Indiana is the 2nd most disciplined team in the country. The Hoosiers are flagged for only 25 penalty yards per contest. Miami on the other hand lands at 89th in FBS with 57 yards in flags per game.
IU kicker Nicolas Radicic is a perfect 76-of-76 on PAT’s and finished 16-of-17 on FG’s for the season. Roman Hemby (22.6 yards per kick return) is a dangerous kick returner while Jonathan Brady is a weapon on punt returns (16 yards per return and a TD).
In comparison, Keelan Marion averages 25.3 yards per kick return while Malachi Toney averages 14.4 yards per punt. Carter Davis has made all 49 of his PAT attempts but is 17-of-23 on FG’s now after a miss against Ole Miss.
Indiana dismantled Oregon 56-22 in the Peach Bowl semifinal game to reach the national championship. The Hoosiers were three point favorites but dominated the Ducks with a defensive touchdown and a special teams gem of a blocked punt late.
On money downs, Indiana finished 11-of-14 while Oregon finished 8-of-15 (two failed 4th down tries). Oregon was flagged for 43 yards in penalties while IU was flagged for just 23 yards.
The Ducks turned the ball over three times with all three coming from Dante Moore (one INT, two fumbles). Fernando Mendoza fumbled twice but Indiana did not turn the ball over.
Oregon kicker Atticus Sappington missed his lone FG attempt and James Ferguson-Reynolds suffered a blocked punt that turned into a short field score for IU.
Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy winning QB and likely top-5 NFL Draft pick in ‘26, threw five touchdowns on 8.6 yards per pass attempt. Mendoza rushed for 4.7 yards per carry while being sacked once.
Kaelon Black averaged 5.3 yards per carry with two scores on the ground. Hemby and freshman Khobie Martin averaged 3.1 and 10.5 yards per carry, respectively. Oregon logged five TFL’s against the Hoosiers.
Seven Hoosiers receivers caught a pass from Mendoza with three hitting double-digit yards per catch marks. Elijah Surratt caught two TD passes, and Charlie Becker averaged 24 yards per catch with a score.
Above- Indiana’s Surratt is an elite pass catcher. Miami is going to have to bracket him and be physical with him.
Above- Wide pull which is a form of pin-pull and buck sweep. Wide pull is designed to hit in the D-Gap instead of C-Gap. Mendoza’s ability to run, and RPO tags freeze the BSDE and BSLB. That gets Indiana with numbers at the POA, especially when one is a CB.
Above- Indiana blocking in space on that wide pull. A mugging from the OL on a much smaller DB.
Above- This is a run tag in the box and a 2-man concept up top. It’s split zone in the box but with a 9-man look on defense Mendoza takes the throw. The pass concept is fin-corner. The Fin is a 3-yard in route while the corner here is designed to drop on the front pylon. Mendoza has the S slightly inside and knows that he can drop this over the top.
Above- As you can see the DB’s stay on their man which creates a nice spacing for Mendoza to drop this without worrying about anyone helping the S. Offensive football is about creating space, defense is about eliminating space.
Above- Pass rush lanes have to be just that- lanes. It’s like the kickoff team, you can’t overlap guys on KO and you can’t on pass rush, either. You can see six guys in this pressure package but two sets are stacking each other. This gives Mendoza room to escape. Miami’s lanes have to stay more disciplined than Oregon’s.
Above- This is Mendoza AFTER already fumbling on this play and recovering it off a wild bounce off his own OL. If he’s going to play this loose with the football Miami needs to go after strip sacks in order to get extra possessions. Mendoza fumbles the ball again later on a long run, but IU also recovers that.
Above- Split zone is a great red zone concept because you’re pulling without creating a run through lane for a LB. The IU TE puts his head on the inside where it belongs and the Oregon DE doesn’t wrong arm so the ball can easily fit right in there.
Above- Surratt again being blanketed (this was DPI) and holding into the football. Secure the tackle but rip at the damn football.
Above- Play-action gets the Oregon SS to declare he’s playing the run while Mendoza looks off the FS. Once he freezes that FS to the left, he can fire back to the fade 1-on-1 ball he wanted all along.
Above- Indiana uses the back middle of the end zone on a crossing route.
Above- The Indiana WR’s are deadly with double moves. Here he baits the Oregon DB outside before breaking in.
Above- You can see the Oregon DB fall and this winds up an easy TD for Indiana.
The Indiana defense held Dante Moore to 7.3 yards per pass attempt with two TD’s, one INT, and two fumbles. Moore was sacked three times by IU for negative rushing yards including sack yardage.
Jay Harris averaged only 2.2 yards per carry with a touchdown as Indiana had 10 (TEN!) tackles for loss against the Ducks offense. Freshman Dierre Hill averaged 17.2 yards per carry on a 71-yard long.
Moore found eight different Ducks receivers with six hitting the double-digit yards per catch mark. Jamari Johnson averaged 20.8 yards per catch with a touchdown to lead the way for Oregon.
Above- If Moore wants to play in the NFL he has to know this route is CAP’d. Coverage is okay for a 5-yard out but the CB is already aligned to the outside. Then Moore throws a bad ball which is inside instead of outside and the CB picks it off for a pick 6.
Above- If you do throw that ball it has to be so far outside that it’s INC or a catch, no chance of an INT. That’s one thing Beck does well is place the ball on these types of throws. I’m more concerned with Beck intermediate middle than short outside.
Above- how do you beat pressure? Quick throws. The Hoosiers LBs are thumpers and not great in coverage. Mesh, shallow cross, and RPO tags to read the LB and replace him with a slot will be good vs. IU.
Above- if you want to run double moves you have to have pass pro. The Oregon RB stops the blitz dead and the OL does a great job here of holding up.
Above- Indiana DB’s chasing after the double move. Moore drops a dime. This was after three 3rd down conversions on this drive.
Above- Indiana’s front 6 create a ton of TFL’s. They’re 2nd in TFL per game this season with 8.4 per game.
Above- Moore hits his own RB on the RPO screen tag and it results in an empty hand throw and fumble recovery for Indiana. This is one of Moore’s two fumbles and clearly self-inflicted.
Above- Take the check down knowing it’s a quick blow up, throw it at the RB’s feet, anything but taking a huge sack on 2nd and 3. Live to fight another down on 3rd and 3 vs 3rd and long.
Above- Indiana’s DT sets a pick and roll for the DE eating two blockers to allow the end to sack Moore. You’re going to see a total team effort with guys giving up potential stats to win as a unit. That’s how you get to 15-0 as Indiana with an entirely different mentality.
The main theme for Miami all playoff has been to own the road but I’m not sure that’s possible against Indiana. Can Mark Fletcher and Marty Brown smack some deer on the Highway to Hoosier? Or will the ‘Canes have the unexplained fires the Ducks had on the biggest stage? This is an all or none type of game. Play perfect football or lose. No grab ass, no dumb mistakes.
This matchup is between calm and chaos. Indiana plays and coaches with calm, Miami plays and coaches with chaos. We’ll get to the score prediction in part two.