No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 10 Miami – CFP Championship prediction: Odds, expert picks, team news, trends, stats

Fernando Mendoza and the top-ranked Indiana Hoosiers take the field in South Beach Monday Night looking to complete a perfect, fairy tale season with a win against Carson Beck and the Miami Hurricanes.

Frankly, neither of these teams were expected to be vying for the national title, but each has earned the right to play for the championship. Miami was ranked No. 10 in the preseason. They lost two of three in mid-October to seemingly fall out of contention for even a bid to the playoff. The Canes have had to go on the road three times in the playoffs. In Indiana they face a team ranked No. 20 in the preseason. After blowout wins at Oregon and at Penn State, the Hoosiers rose to No. 2 in the polls, but again, they began the season off the radar. Their odds to win the national title were 10,000-1.

Lets take a closer look at each school on both sides of the ball and highlight a handful of key players from each side.

Game Details and How to Watch: Miami vs. Indiana Date: Monday, January 19, 2025Time: 7:30PM EasternSite: Hard Rock StadiumCity: Miami Gardens, FLTV/Streaming: ESPNGame Odds: Miami vs. Indiana

The latest odds as of Sunday courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: Miami Hurricanes (+260), Indiana Hoosiers (-325)Spread: Indiana -7.5 (-115)Total: 47.5 points

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

What Miami vs. Indiana means for college football

Nicole Auerbach and Joshua Perry explore what Miami and Indiana’s CFP National Championship matchup means for the ACC, the CFP selection committee, and college football at large.

Miami Hurricanes

Head Coach: Mario Cristobal
2025 Record: 13-2
Offense Ranking: 21
Defense Ranking: 6
Strength of Schedule: 14

Miami’s 2025 season marked a clear step forward under Mario Cristobal, entering the CFP National Title game 13–2 overall with 12.0 second-order wins and a Top 10 SP+ résumé. The Hurricanes paired a steady, efficiency-based offense (21st in Offensive SP+) with a legitimately smothering defense (6th in Defensive SP+), allowing them to control games even when explosiveness waned. Miami opened the year with statement wins over Notre Dame and Florida, weathered midseason losses to Louisville and SMU, then plowed through the CFP with signature victories over Texas A&M, Ohio State and a thriller against Ole Miss in the CFP Semifinal that validated their national profile. Defensively, the Hurricanes have been relentless, ranking Top 10 in EPA allowed, points per drive, and havoc rate, while consistently winning field position battles and forcing opponents into long, low-probability drives. Offensively, Miami leaned on ball security, pass efficiency, and strong protection metrics rather than big-play volume, finishing Top 30 in EPA per play and yards per dropback.

The result is a battle-tested, balanced team that was able to match Ole Miss score-for-score by converting 11-of-19 3rd downs, and both of their 4th down chances, while holding the Rebels to a disappointing 2-for-10 on 3rd down. It’s hard to imagine Miami rushing the ball 51 times for 191 yards again versus an Indiana defense that hasn’t allowed 100+ rushing yards since November 8th against Penn State, which was the only time Indiana allowed a Power Four team to clear the century mark all season.

The Miami Hurricanes Offense

Miami’s offense is built on efficiency, ball security, and strong pass protection rather than sheer explosiveness, finishing 21st in Offensive SP+ and 22nd in EPA per play. The Hurricanes ranked Top 15 nationally in passing success rate and completion percentage, pairing accurate quarterback play with one of the nation’s lowest pressure rates allowed and a Top 10 total blown block rate. While the rushing attack was more workmanlike than dominant, Miami consistently stayed on schedule, ranking Top 25 in standard-down success rate and limiting negative plays to a Top 5 rate nationally. Explosiveness was sparser, with a below-average rate of 20+ yard plays (6.1%: 83rd), but the offense compensated by sustaining drives with a 53% success rate on standard downs (23rd) and finishing efficiently in opponent’s territory (27th RZ TD rate). Overall, Miami’s offense functioned as a controlled, high-floor unit that complemented its defense by minimizing mistakes and consistently winning the line of scrimmage battle, as the Canes offensive line ranks 1st nationally with a 1.3% pressure rate allowed.

Miami Player to Watch on Offense: QB Carson Beck

Carson Beck’s 2025 profile reflects a quarterback who thrived on volume and efficiency, finishing with 3,581 yards, 29 touchdowns, and a 73.3% completion rate across 435 attempts while posting a respectable 77.5 passing grade. When kept clean, Beck was lethal, completing 76.3% of his throws for 3,228 yards with an 82.8 passing grade, highlighting his comfort operating on schedule and carving defenses that couldn’t generate disruption. Pressure was the clear divider, under duress his completion rate dipped to 49.1% with a much lower 43.7 overall grade, yet he still showed aggressiveness downfield with a 14.4 ADOT. Beck’s passing depth profile underscores his vertical upside, as he generated 808 yards and 13 touchdowns on deep throws (20+ yards) despite an underwhelming 78.3 deep passing grade, while remaining efficient on short and behind-the-line throws with an 87% completion rate on throws within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. Conceptually, he was at his best off play action, completing 77.3%% of those attempts with a 78.5 passing grade and 9.0 yards per attempt, consistently punishing linebackers who stepped up. Taken together, Beck’s data paints the picture of a poised distributor with legitimate downfield juice, whose ceiling rises sharply when kept clean and allowed to operate within a play-action-driven structure.

The Miami Hurricanes Defense

Miami’s defense in 2025 has been the catalyst of its playoff run, finishing sixth nationally in Defensive SP+ and 8th in EPA allowed per play while consistently controlling game flow. The Hurricanes were elite at creating disruption, ranking Top 5 nationally in pressure rate and sacks per dropback while also finishing sixth in overall Havoc Rate, driven by strong defensive line and defensive back production. Against the run, Miami paired a 36% rushing success rate allowed (9th) with a sparkling 0.30 yards before contact average (3rd), limiting opponents’ ability to stay ahead of the chains. In coverage, the defense held opposing quarterbacks to a 30.5 Raw QBR (5th) and ranked 12th in yards per dropback allowed, notably excelling against explosive passes (9th). It will be interesting to see how the Canes handle the first half absence of starting CB2 Xavier Lucas, who is suspended for a targeting penalty in the second half against Ole Miss. His backup, Antoine Ja’Boree, played 16 snaps and allowed a 24-yard reception, which was the longest completion of the game for Ole Miss, resulting in a 40th-percentile Cover Grade from PFF for Ja’Boree. While tackling efficiency was more inconsistent than the underlying efficiency metrics (116th in tackle success rate), Miami’s defense consistently tightened in scoring situations and snuffed out drives, making it one of the most reliable units in the ACC.

Miami Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Rueben Bain

Rueben Bain Jr. put together a complete, high-impact season as the centerpiece of Miami’s front, finishing with 46 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss, and 8.5 sacks while posting an elite 90.9% tackle rate across 14 games. His 21 havoc plays placed him as the most disruptive defender on the roster, pairing consistent backfield penetration with strong run integrity, as evidenced by his 79.3% run-tackle rate and eight credited run stops. As a pass rusher, Bain generated 80 total pressures with a sterling 13.1% pressure rate, while creating 10 sacks overall and forcing a fumble in the process. He consistently won early in downs, recording a first pressure on 45 snaps with an average time-to-pressure of 2.71 seconds, underscoring his explosiveness off the ball. Bain’s production came within the context of a dominant Miami defense, as he sports a superb 93.1 overall defensive grade and a 92.4 pass-rush grade, amplifying the value of his edge presence. Bain’s profile reflects a rugged, every-down defensive end who combined power, effort, and finishing ability to anchor one of the ACC’s most intimidating defensive fronts.

Indiana Hoosiers

Head Coach: Curt Cignetti
2025 Record: 15-0
Offense Ranking: 3
Defense Ranking: 2
Strength of Schedule: 17

Indiana authored a wire-to-wire breakout in 2025, ripping through the Big Ten on its way to a 15-0 record with the nation’s No. 1 SP+ rating, a profile strong enough to overcome their -1.1 second-order wins luck. Offensively, Curt Cignetti’s group finished No. 3 in Offensive SP+, pairing a lethal 0.30 EPA/play attack with elite success (53.6%, No. 1) and finishing drives (5.44 PPD, No. 2) metrics despite operating at one of the country’s slowest tempos (122nd in pace). Defensively, Indiana fielded the 2nd ranked unit in SP+, overwhelming opponents with the #1 Havoc rate (24.9%), #6 success-rate suppression, and a suffocating red-zone TD rate of just 26.1%, the best in the country. The Hoosiers’ dominance was amplified by an extraordinary +18 actual turnover margin (1st) and the nation’s highest cover margin, a combination that consistently buried opponents above projection. Their résumé was validated on the field, with wins over Oregon (twice), Penn State, Ohio State and Alabama sharpening what SP+ rated as the No. 1 résumé in college football. Though the Hoosiers outlasted Oregon in a close 30-20 victory back on October 11th, they solidified their dominance over the Ducks with a 56-22 evisceration in which IU got out to a commanding 42-7 third quarter lead, allowing them to coast the rest of the way. Indiana wasn’t merely unbeaten — it produced the most statistically complete season in program history, powered by complementary efficiency, defensive havoc, and mistake-free football.

The Indiana Hoosiers Offense

Indiana’s offense has been a ruthlessly efficient machine, finishing No. 3 in Offensive SP+ while leading the nation in success rate (53.6%) and the second overall EPA/play profile. The passing game drove the operation with a 72.1% completion rate (4th) and averaging an elite 0.48 EPA/dropback (1st), all while finishing drives at a devastating 5.44 points per scoring opportunity (2nd). Complementing that was a powerful ground attack that ranked 6th in rushing success rate (51.4%), pairing 5.8 yards per non-sack carry with a Top 10 stuff-avoidance rate (13.9%). Protection quietly became an edge in its own right as the Hoosiers allowed pressure on just 2.0% of dropbacks (16th) while committing minimal penalties and generating the highest third-down success rate (56.5%) in the country. With tempo dialed way down (30.1 sec/play, 127th) but drive output way up (3.60 points/drive, 2nd), Indiana weaponized efficiency, sequencing, and mistake-free execution to consistently outpace and bury opponents.

Indiana Player to Watch on Offense: QB Fernando Mendoza

Fernando Mendoza (6’5/225) put together a Heisman-winning campaign, completing 72.3% of his passes for 3,349 yards with a 41–6 TD-INT ratio while posting an elite 9.5 yards per attempt and an 89.5 Total QBR. He paired accuracy with aggression, averaging 13.0 yards per completion and generating a remarkable 58.4% passing success rate despite operating in a fairly vertical offense. From a grading standpoint, Mendoza earned a 91.6 overall offensive grade and a 91.0 passing grade, consistently limiting negative plays with just a 2.5% turnover-worthy play rate. He was especially lethal when kept clean, completing 78.1% of his throws for 9.9 yards per attempt with a 92.7 offensive grade, though his efficiency understandably dipped under pressure where his completion rate fell to 51.3%. Conceptually, Mendoza thrived outside of play action, producing 31 touchdowns and a 10.3 YPA on non-play-action throws while maintaining his elevated accuracy and decision-making. As a runner, he added real value, rushing for 284 yards and six scores with a 69.6% success rate and an impressive 51.8% first-down rate, underscoring his ability to stress defenses both structurally and when flushed. He will almost assuredly be the 1st player taken in the 2026 NFL Draft and looks to cap his storybook season with a CFP National Championship.

The Indiana Hoosiers Defense

Indiana paired its elite offense with a fully national-title caliber defense, finishing 1st in Defensive SP+ and holding opponents to just 0.86 points per drive (1st). The Hoosiers stifled efficiency across the board, ranking 6th in success rate allowed (33.5%), 10th in yards per play allowed (4.53), and 5th in EPA/dropback allowed (-0.20) while stiffening in their own territory with a nation-best 3.07 points per scoring opportunity allowed and a 26.1% red zone TD rate (1st). Havoc was a defining trait, with Indiana generating the nation’s 1st overall Havoc Rate (24.9%), supported by the 2nd-best DL disruption (10.3%) and Top 15 LB/DB contributions, with opponents gaining zero or negative yards on 48.2% of passing downs (16th). The pass defense choked out explosives, allowing just 12.0% of completions to go for 20+ yards (11th) with an excellent 36.6 Raw QBR allowed (14th) and the 7th-best INT rate (4.1%). With all that disruption layered on top of a +21 turnover margin (1st) and consistent field-position wins, Indiana turned every game into a danger-riddled environment that was exceedingly difficult to sustain drives in.

Indiana Player to Watch on Defense: Slot CB/Safety Devan Boykin

Devan Boykin emerged as one of Indiana’s most versatile defenders, posting 44 total tackles with an elite 95.6% tackle rate across 15 games while consistently finishing plays in space. His 11 havoc plays, including 3.0 tackles for loss, 1.0 sack, two interceptions, and five pass breakups, underscore a disruptive skill set that goes beyond simple coverage duties. In coverage, Boykin allowed just 9 completions on 22 targets (40.9%) for 101 yards, surrendering zero touchdowns and producing a sparkling 8.5 defensive QBR against him. He was particularly effective at limiting damage after the catch, holding receivers to only 4.6 yards per target and 0.38 yards per coverage snap. PFF grading backs up the production, as Boykin earned an overall defensive of 90.2 with strong marks in coverage (86.5) and run defense (93.9) despite being targeted in high-leverage slot situations. Taken together, the data paints Boykin as a high-efficiency, low-margin defender whose tackling reliability and coverage discipline made him a critical stabilizer in Indiana’s secondary.

Team Stats and Betting Trends: Indiana vs. MiamiIndiana is 10-5 ATS this seasonMiami (FL) is 10-5 ATS this seasonThe OVER has cashed in 6 of Miami’s 15 games this season (6-9)The OVER has cashed in 8 of Indiana’s 15 games this season (8-7)Indiana and Miami (FL) have only played twice before, splitting wins at the old Orange Bowl in the mid-1960s (Indiana won in 1964, Miami in 1966)This is Indiana’s first national championship appearance in program historyThe Hurricanes are seeking their first national title since 2001Indiana has outscored opponents by 237 points in the first half and 236 in the second half

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