It’s been more than 20 weeks since then-No. 20 Indiana quietly beat Old Dominion and No. 10 Miami dramatically beat Notre Dame to open the 2025 college football season. The Hoosiers (15-0) and Hurricanes (13-2) are now the last two teams standing, set to battle for the College Football Playoff national championship at 7:30 p.m. ET Monday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
Will Indiana complete an improbable perfect season and become college football’s first first-time national champion since Florida in 1996? Or will Miami return to the top of the sport on its home field by winning its first national title since 2001 and sixth overall?
Whether you ask The Athletic’s staff, our readers, our projections from Austin Mock or oddsmakers, the consensus is clear: Indiana is expected to win. The Hoosiers are favored by 8.5, per BetMGM. Here’s who our writers and editors are picking, plus some analysis from our readers:
National championship predictions
PersonWinnerScore
Sam Khan
24-20
Chris Kamrani
34-23
Stewart Mandel
24-7
Scott Dochterman
34-16
Bruce Feldman
27-17
Mitch Sherman
24-17
Justin Williams
38-20
Matt Baker
24-14
Austin Meek
31-14
Eric Single
9-7
David Ubben
31-18
Mitch Light
24-13
Chris Vannini
31-10
Pete Sampson
27-13
Ralph Russo
31-30
Manny Navarro
31-17
Joe Rexrode
34-10
Antonio Morales
23-16
Kate Hairopoulos
31-10
Grace Raynor
35-24
Cameron Teague Robinson
24-7
Ira Gorawara
24-10
Matt Brown
30-17
Daniel Shirley
24-23
Staff
79.2%
Readers
77.7%
Mock’s model
71.0%
Sam Khan Jr.: The Hoosiers’ domination of Alabama and Oregon has seemingly turned the title game into a coronation rather than a competition in the eyes of some. But Miami will give Indiana all it can handle. The three Indiana wins decided by single digits (Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State) all had one thing in common: The opposing defense pressured Fernando Mendoza on at least 40 percent of snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. The Hurricanes, who possess one of the best defensive fronts in the country, pressure QBs at a 40.6 percent rate, fifth best in the FBS.
Miami will harass Mendoza early and often and turn this game into a rock fight. And yes, Indiana is also one of the best at pressuring quarterbacks, but the Hurricanes have been the best all year at protecting their quarterback. The game is simple. Get after the other quarterback and protect yours. Because Miami has been elite at both all year, give me the Canes. You can say it now: The U is back. Miami 24, Indiana 20.
Chris Kamrani: If Indiana plays the way it has most of the year, the Hoosiers should win handily. They’re a more well-rounded team. They’re elite in all three phases. They have the Heisman winner and just dominated the only team in the CFP field I thought could send them home bummed. Maybe I’m reading into Miami’s struggles against Ole Miss too much, but the head and the heart say it’s Indiana comfortably.
Too many things have to go right for Miami to win this game. The Hurricanes need an all-world performance on the biggest stage from Carson Beck, offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson has to not be so reliant on gimmick play calls and the two star defensive ends have to cause four quarters of hell for Mendoza. In addition, you need the Hoosiers to beat themselves by playing sloppy often. And Curt Cignetti ain’t standing for any of that. Indiana 34, Miami 23
Stewart Mandel: Miami’s defense is too good for Indiana to move the ball at will like it did against Alabama and Oregon, but Indiana’s defense is too good for Miami to move the ball at all. The Canes are at their best when they’re running the ball down peoples’ throats, but no one has been able to run the ball on the Hoosiers. So maybe the score doesn’t get out of hand as much this time, but IU will be in control most of the game. Indiana 24, Miami 7
Scott Dochterman: I’ve seen Indiana up close in tight finishes against Ohio State and Iowa and in blowouts against Illinois and Alabama. Each time, Mendoza was the reason for that success. He made impact throws late in the fourth quarter to pull out one-score victories and was virtually perfect against the Illini and Tide. If he isn’t slingin’ it on Monday, I could envision a path of victory for Miami. But Mendoza tips the field.
The Hoosiers are the most complete team in recent memory. If they get rocked for a possession or two, they regather and recover. Miami may have an edge with its outstanding defensive line, and receiver Malachi Toney is a difficult matchup in space. But I can’t get past issues in the margins like penalty disparity (26.9 per game for Indiana, 57.1 for Miami) and field-goal inequity (17-19 for Indiana, 18-24 for Miami). The Hurricanes will struggle to run on Indiana and are susceptible to big passing plays. If Miami plays mistake-free and controls the line of scrimmage, I still see Indiana pulling out a close win. But I think the Hoosiers force turnovers and rattle off a few fourth-quarter touchdowns to win decisively. Indiana 34, Miami 16
Fernando Mendoza became Indiana’s first Heisman Trophy winner after transferring from California. (Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
Bruce Feldman: According to coaches who faced Indiana this year, the biggest challenge for Miami is: Can the Canes be patient? Oregon couldn’t and got blown out. Miami has shown it is comfortable grinding out long drives behind its power running game. But running against coordinator Bryant Haines’ defense has been almost impossible. Not just this year, but over the past four years, when he’s had top-five rushing defenses each season dating to his JMU days. Whether Mario Cristobal’s guys will be able to do something no one else has this year will determine whether Miami has a shot at pulling the upset.
Slowing down Mendoza won’t be easy. Miami got pressure on Ohio State’s Julian Sayin and rattled him, sacking him five times and picking him off twice. It’ll be a lot harder to do that with Mendoza. Coaches told me you can affect Mendoza, but you can’t rattle him. He just comes back the next series and gets right back to work. Ultimately, I think it’s Indiana’s year and the Hoosiers cap off a dream season in Mendoza’s hometown. Indiana 27, Miami 17
Mitch Sherman: Indiana is the more complete team. The Hoosiers play a more consistent brand of football. They almost never beat themselves. IU won me over in the way it steamrolled Oregon. The wins against Alabama and Ohio State were impressive, but I felt the Hoosiers had finally met a foe in the Ducks with an emotional and motivational edge. Obviously, I was way wrong. So no longer will I doubt Indiana — or anything that Cignetti says from this point until he is done talking.
I’m dating myself here, but I’ve sat in the stadium — not this stadium — to watch Miami play at home for the national championship. I’ve seen a legion of visiting fans invade in surprisingly large numbers and disturb the Miami home energy. I’m envisioning a repeat of the 1995 Orange Bowl. Right down to the fourth-quarter comeback and the final score. Indiana 24, Miami 17
Justin Williams: I think Miami can win this game … but no chance I’m picking the Hurricanes. Not after Indiana’s storybook rise, led by Cignetti’s cocked eyebrows and Mendoza’s motivational aura. Miami is stout in the trenches on both sides of the ball and has difference-makers such as Toney and Mark Fletcher Jr. and a very experienced quarterback in Beck. But the Hoosiers are riding one of the most balanced, fundamentally sound and dominant waves the sport has seen in recent decades. IU has the best turnover margin and third-down conversion rate in college football, and the second fewest penalty yards per game. Miami will need to capitalize on some costly mistakes to pull the upset, but the Hoosiers just don’t make them.
Indiana has proven itself by now, but it still shouldn’t be taken for granted just how impressive that proof of concept is. I’m not about to pick against that narrative. Indiana 38, Miami 20
Matt Baker: Indiana is the better team, which means Miami probably needs some fortuitous breaks to win. Unfortunately for the Hurricanes, Indiana doesn’t make many mistakes. Miami’s Fiesta Bowl penalties reminded us that the Hurricanes still have the ability to beat themselves (as they have for much of the past two decades). Reuben Bain Jr. and Akeem Mesidor are elite, but I’m not sure Miami’s defensive front will generate enough pressure to force the Hoosiers into the kinds of costly mistakes they haven’t made all year.
My best argument against Indiana is that it’s really hard to go 16-0, but that’s not very compelling. Although Miami should be competitive, I expect Indiana to feel in control for most of the game, completing one of the most incredible sports stories of my lifetime. Indiana 24, Miami 14
Austin Meek: Of the 12 teams in this year’s CFP, Indiana had the best record, the best resume and the best story. The only reason the Hoosiers weren’t a bigger favorite to win it all is the logo on their helmets. If Indiana’s wins against Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon didn’t convince you that the Hoosiers are the best team in college football, nothing will. Of course, the best team doesn’t always win, and the Hurricanes are talented enough to make things difficult on the Hoosiers, especially with this game being played in Miami’s home stadium. But it will take a mistake-free game, something no team has been able to accomplish against Indiana.
For me, it comes down to this: Is Miami the team I would trust to play a flawless game? No, it’s not. Taking nothing away from the Hurricanes’ performance in the CFP so far, they’ve won by forcing the other team to make mistakes while overcoming their own, but I’m not sure that formula works against Indiana. Indiana 31, Miami 14
Eric Single: Who needs instant classics? I’m expecting a nervy, mistake-filled and rigid ending to a thrilling CFP because the last two teams standing, for all their fearless wins in recent weeks, haven’t been in this exact spot in decades, if ever. With 10 days to stare at each other, overthinking will be abundant and points will be at a premium. And after dropping at least three interceptions in the semis, Miami gets a friendly bounce or two at home. Miami 9, Indiana 7
David Ubben: Miami simply cannot win a national title before it wins an ACC title. The Hurricanes punch out a fumble on the opening drive and Michael Irvin goes rogue, crashing the sideline and presenting Mesidor with the last Turnover Chain. Cristobal, who infamously killed it upon his arrival in 2022, is furious. But the vibes are immaculate. Until Indiana happens. The Hoosiers score on their next four drives and hold Miami to four field goals over the rest of the game. Indiana 31, Miami 18
Mitch Light: Cignetti and Mendoza grab most of the headlines — and deservedly so — but the Indiana defense has been so good all year. The Hoosiers have allowed more than 20 points only twice, in the 27-24 win at Penn State and last week’s dominant Peach Bowl win over Oregon, and have held nine teams to 10 points or fewer. This unit will be tested by Miami’s big and talented offensive line and a running game. But the Hoosiers have passed every test to date, and there is no reason to believe that will change. Indiana 24, Miami 13
Chris Vannini: Indiana doesn’t have a weakness and is the cleanest team we’ve seen in years. Can Miami be perfect? The Canes have done a good job fixing their weaknesses in this Playoff run. They’ll have to avoid the Indiana avalanche that is bound to come — and avoid a turnover on the first drive of the game. Miami is able to lengthen possessions and shorten the game in a low-scoring first half, but Indiana adjusts and pulls away in the second half. Indiana 31, Miami 10
Pete Sampson: Indiana plays football like it’s a killer robot, which gets lost in the facial expressions of its head coach and quarterback. For all the quirks and idiosyncrasies around the Hoosiers, the fact they simply do not beat themselves gets overlooked. In a matchup where Miami probably needs to win the turnover margin, it’s hard to see Indiana giving quarter. Meanwhile, Miami plays football like disaster could strike at any moment. Unless the Hoosiers step out of character on Monday night, the sport’s robotic overlords will be hoisting the trophy. Indiana 27, Miami 13
Ralph Russo: The great thing about being part of a multimedia company is it gives me multiple platforms to make predictions. On “The Audible,” I gave a winner and score to my co-hosts, Bruce Feldman and Stewart Mandel, to use during a show previewing the game that I was not a part of. So there is a prediction out there from me that may or may not match what I’m writing here. Variety is the spice of life, they say. My skepticism of Indiana has gone from healthy to modest to now just full on commitment to the bit. Miami wins its sixth national title the way it did its first against mighty Nebraska in the Orange Bowl in the 1983 season: Upsetting an unbeaten No. 1 that’s being talked about as one of the great teams of all time in the Hurricanes’ home stadium. Miami 31, Indiana 30
Manny Navarro: Unlike our buddy, Ralph, I’ve already put my prediction in print and in audio form and I’m sticking with it. The Hurricanes are going to overwhelm Indiana at the line of scrimmage with violence. They already beat Ohio State with it. Now, they do it to the Hoosiers. Miami 31, Indiana 17
Joe Rexrode: Let’s go back through a season’s worth of smart Indiana opinions. Great story last season, looking at 8-4 this season, which by the way is pretty freaking good for Indiana! … If Iowa almost got them, how humbled are the Hoosiers going to be at Oregon? … Lucky to pull out that win at Penn State … This is a Playoff team but Ohio State will roll in Indy. … Give me Alabama. … Did you see that Oregon defense against Tech? Ducks in a close one. … So, all due respect to Miami and those who think the Hurricanes can pressure Mendoza and run the ball and get big plays from Toney and have a chance, but … no. Sorry. Not falling for it. I’d take the Hoosiers over the Dolphins at this point. Indiana 34, Miami 10
Antonio Morales: Miami is strong on both lines, so it won’t get blown out like Indiana’s past two opponents. This will be a competitive game. But you can’t make mistakes against Indiana, and the Hurricanes have shown a propensity for that throughout the Playoff, whether it’s been missed field goals, fumbles, penalties, etc. In a game like this, I’ll lean toward the team I expect to play a clean, more mistake-free game. Indiana 23, Miami 16
Miami freshman Malachi Toney has 99 catches for 1,089 yards. (Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
Kate Hairopoulos: Can the Hoosiers do it a 16th time? For as dominant as they’ve looked, are they bound to finally stumble, for Mendoza to turn it over in a key spot or the receivers who catch everything to finally drop a pass or two? Have they seen a player like Toney? Are they ready for the U’s play up front? It’s easy to think it’s all been too much, too good to be true, even as the results say otherwise and predictions pile up in favor of Indiana. The unexpected happens in sports, which is why we love them. But not on Monday. The best team in the country finishes the deal. Indiana 31, Miami 10
Grace Raynor: Indiana has been a juggernaut all year and that’s not changing Monday night. After watching the Hoosiers dominate Oregon from start to finish in the Peach Bowl last week, it’s impossible to bet against them. Mendoza made everything look easy, the Hoosiers didn’t (and don’t) make mistakes and the defense was smothering. It’s been a blast watching the Hurricanes make their run after they were almost left out of the Playoff entirely, and it’d be fitting to watch them win it all at home. It just doesn’t seem likely given how elite Indiana has been. Indiana 35, Miami 24
Cameron Teague Robinson: This feels a lot like last year’s title game when Ohio State’s Playoff dominance made it hard to envision an upset happening. The Hoosiers aren’t the scariest offense in the country, but they are extremely efficient and Mendoza knows where to go with the ball on every play. The only way to slow him down is to get pressure on him, which is Miami’s strength. This will be the best front Indiana has played since Ohio State, but I think Indiana’s mix of a balanced rushing attack and quick RPO game will nullify Miami’s pass rush, for the most part.
Where I think Indiana has a chance to break this game open is on defense. The Hoosiers’ linebackers stop the run, shed blocks and defend the pass well. They are the heart and soul of that defense and should be able to contain Fletcher and force Beck to beat them. I like Indiana by three scores — I don’t think Miami has enough offensive firepower outside of Toney. Indiana 24, Miami 7
Ira Gorawara: It’s alarming how unalarmed Miami fans seem. As one fan told me this week, “Indiana don’t scare me. They ain’t beat nobody with a defense like ours.” Maybe Indiana hasn’t had to stare down a defense with Miami’s teeth. But the Hoosiers have aced every other stress test: hostile road crowds, fourth-quarter fights, opponents bent on causing discomfort. Miami can preach toughness all week, but Indiana’s already made a season out of alchemizing confidence into steel. All the Hoosiers do — and will do — is maintain discipline long enough for impatience to betray the other side. That’s the chilling curse of Cignetti’s crimson. Something about the Cs. Indiana 24, Miami 10
Matt Brown: A partial list of teams that have more wins than Indiana in the 21st century: Ball State, Wyoming, Central Michigan, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky, Army, Rutgers — and every other Power 4 team not named Duke, Colorado, Kansas or Vanderbilt. And that’s including the 26-2 record Indiana has had since Cignetti arrived. The point isn’t to disparage Indiana; it’s just another way to highlight how truly remarkable the Hoosiers’ run is. Miami has been lost in the wilderness for much of the century, but it still has 88 more wins since 2000. So can Miami stop the greatest college football Cinderella story ever told? Indiana is the better-coached, more-disciplined and stronger-all-around team than Miami. I anticipate a physical rock fight for a while, but the Hoosiers defense will make a game-changing play and then Mendoza will put it away for a championship unlike any we’ve ever seen. Indiana 30, Miami 17
Daniel Shirley: I predicted before the season that Miami would make the College Football Playoff. I picked Miami to win the national title before the Playoff began. So, I have to stick with the Canes tonight, right? You bet. And it might as well be a thriller. Miami 24, Indiana 23
Readers weigh in
Indiana was the clear consensus choice among our readers, who were surveyed from last Wednesday until Sunday morning, with 78.3 percent of respondents picking the Hoosiers to win. Here’s a selection of explanations:
“I’m a Buckeye, and these are the only two teams that beat us in 2025. Of the two, I was more impressed with Indiana.” — Marcie G.
“The experts continue to be impacted by the logo on the helmet. If this IU team had Alabama’s, Ohio State’s or Georgia’s logo, the experts would be talking about this being one of the best teams of all time. IU will win 31-10 (and the game won’t be as close as the score would indicate).” — Dale T.
“Indiana makes fewer mistakes, especially in regards to penalties and discipline, and that will make the difference. I expect Miami will be closer than the spread suggests, and in fact don’t know why the spread has risen to the point it has, but still think Indiana is more trustworthy and reliable team.” — Brandon B.
“I think that the crowd in Hard Rock is going to surprise some people. Seeing a lot of people suggest that it will be a hostile ‘road’ environment for Miami, but I expect that the Miami crowd will show up and be pretty rowdy for Miami. Gotta get some three-and-outs to throw Mendoza maybe just slightly off his game, and hope that Beck doesn’t implode. I think I’ll take Miami late in a tight one, 21-17.” — Blane R.
“Indiana has the total package, including its mental preparation due to Cignetti. I love that both teams have strong line play and I think that’s the reason for Miami’s success to date in the Playoff, but Indiana has that plus no major weaknesses anywhere else. Gotta go with the Hoosiers.” — Joni M.
“I’m going with my heart and not my brain. I get it; Indiana looks better all the way around. I’m counting on no penalties for Miami and pressure from the D-line that Mendoza hasn’t faced this year. The U in a very close game.” — Eric H.
“Being from Indiana, this was never even a thought bubble in my 55 years. I think along with the Miracle on Ice, it’s the greatest rags to riches story in sports history. And they’ll finish it by humbling Miami on its home field.” — Bryan M.
“Respectfully, Curt Cignetti is not merely a football coach winning games. Working in the business and growing up in Big Ten country, what he has done at Indiana —Indiana!! — is beyond coaching. The man is truly a football savant. And more power to him and the performances his teams give all fans who love college football.” — Joe M.
“Miami has more speed, power and talent than Indiana has or has seen. Miami is peaking at the right time, and if it avoids self-inflicted injuries, athleticism wins out — especially at home.” — Michael H.
“Indiana reminds me of old-time Alabama.” — JG
“Indiana is too good to get blown out, and if it’s a close game, I’ll take Cignetti to get it done vs. Cristobal’s shaky game management track record.” — Nate B.
“Indiana has been dominant to historical proportions this season. The eye test tells us they are one of the best teams of the CFP era. The stats back it up. Only three of their wins were by single digits. They beat Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, then followed that up by crushing Alabama and Oregon. The Hoosiers have the Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback. They have the best turnover differential in the country (Miami has not been immune to turning the ball over). They can both establish the run and stop it. They have excellent special teams play and a kicker (Nico Radicic) who has been money. Indiana is the most complete team in college football. And Cignetti wins. Google him.” — Rick W.
“I would argue that Indiana is the best team in college football … and yet that statement still underrates and undersells them. Every game of theirs I watch, I am shocked by how creative and disciplined they are: They always keep their opponent guessing and they don’t make mistakes. It’s truly incredible what’s being built in Bloomington.” — Tee B.