A lot of college football fans are feeling it right now. The sport has changed rapidly from what many of us originally fell in love with, and perhaps nothing exemplifies that more than modern recruiting.
Long gone are the days of signing a full class and being able to evaluate the hit rate four or five years later, unless you want to mine about 20 other program’s rosters to hunt those signees down after using multiple transfers. Coaches spend more time re-recruiting their own rosters than evaluating new prep prospects. Recruiting is now about spending the most money and buying a new roster each year, essentially a horrible offshoot of NFL free agency without the guardrails. It’s led a whole lot of fans to stop following recruiting, and it’s taken much of the joy away from those of us who still do.
A bleak landscape on its own, yes, even in the best of times when a program is finding success. But when you encounter a situation that Florida State football currently finds itself in, that landscape turns into a hellscape.
There are several other great articles discussing Athletic Director Mike Alford’s statement on Mike Norvell, so I’ll simply focus on the recruiting and roster fallout that is sure to come from Monday’s announcement. I’m not here to argue a side either way, but I will talk through what I believe will now happen. It ain’t rocket science.
As of this writing, Florida State holds 25 commitments and the 13th-best recruiting class in the cycle, per 247Sports composite. I can tell you right now, both of those numbers are going to go down. Perhaps plummet all at once, perhaps a slow bleed, but prepare yourselves either way. The statement that Norvell will be allowed to finish the season before being part of a “comprehensive evaluation” was a death knell on the trail.
Had FSU fired Norvell and named an interim, it would have meant a flurry of decommitments, yes. But it would have also shown that the administration is committed to the high standards set by prior coaching staffs, and recruits and their families and agents would be able to follow along as FSU searched for its next leader, giving the Seminoles the opportunity to get some of their prior commits back into the fold before the December 3 signing period begins.
Opposing coaches already had plenty of negative recruiting fodder to use against FSU over the past month, but now they can (rightfully) point to Norvell being a lame-duck head coach and an administration that clearly doesn’t care about the previous high standards for Seminole football. The narrative writes itself, and was penned in part by Alford. It essentially undercuts Norvell’s ability to recruit. What can he say? “I hope I’ll be your coach in a month”?
On the trail, Alford’s message will not fall upon deaf ears like it did for many fans, or like Norvell’s tired “respond” and “climb” messaging clearly is for his current team. I would expect the top pledges in the class to start reopening their recruitments shortly. Some already have, without formally decommitting. Schools like Ohio State, Miami, Alabama, etc. smell the blood in the water and will begin poaching the cream of the FSU crop, just like last season. The difference is, there will likely be no December flurry of commitments that landed players like Kromah and Boggs. Lower four-stars and high-three stars will also begin searching for other options, eviscerating the Seminoles of their foundation and skill talent. I will be surprised if FSU still has double-digit commitments by mid-November.
As for the current roster, we’re past the point of coaching changes triggering a 30-day window for portal declarations, so that wouldn’t have factored in either way. Based on numerous reports and accounts of players tuning out Norvell or outright making fun of him, it seems like the locker room rot from 2024 still exists and is festering again. College football is now mercenary ball and many players will certainly start playing for themselves instead of for the team, if they hadn’t already. FSU will likely need to grossly overpay to keep certain players on the roster. It’s gonna be a blast.
The moral of this story? If you’re searching for joy, don’t look towards FSU recruiting. I’m what some call a realistic optimist, and I believe brighter days are coming. But they won’t be under Alford or Norvell.