(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Oct. 20, 2025.)
3. Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence and Kyler Murray have a combined $131 million in fully guaranteed salary next season. Can their teams get out of these deals?
Before last season, NFL executives lamented how teams had taken a “next man up” approach to paying quarterbacks near the top of the scale regardless of production or team success.
“Most of the coaches and GMs haven’t won enough to be able to tell their owners, ‘You know what? Let’s reset,’” a team contract negotiator said then.
And so, teams keep signing mid-tier quarterbacks to upper-tier deals, then hoping things work out. Seattle bucked the trend this offseason by trading Geno Smith and signing Sam Darnold for less. The results have been spectacular so far.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins, now 1-6, benched Tagovailoa during a 31-6 loss to the previously 1-5 Cleveland Browns. Lawrence completed fewer than half his passes during a 35-7 loss to the Rams (four drops were a factor). Murray missed a second consecutive Arizona Cardinals start due to injury; the offense improved statistically with Jacoby Brissett in the lineup for close losses to Indianapolis and Green Bay, teams with a combined record of 10-2-1.
An NFL executive wondered Sunday whether these teams could trade quarterbacks among each other, or whether teams such as the winless New York Jets, who benched Justin Fields on Sunday, might have interest. The New Orleans Saints will presumably take a long look at rookie Tyler Shough this season, giving them a feel for how they might want to address the position longer term.
“Maybe you get someone to take on a deal and get a pick, similar to the Brock Osweiler trade,” this exec said.
Cleveland acquired Osweiler and a second-round pick from Houston in 2017, freeing the Texans from the quarterback’s $16 million salary.
Another NFL exec could not have been much blunter during our summer conversation on team spending and quarterback play. He thought the Dolphins erred by keeping Tagovailoa on their roster long enough for $54 million of his 2026 salary to become fully guaranteed.
“Their time to get out of that deal was this year,” the exec said in June. “That is what they should have done. They should have cut him before his guarantees vested.”
Tua Tagovailoa
Dolphins
◂ Worse
Better ▸
Trouble was, coach Mike McDaniel was heading into a pivotal fourth season still seeking his first playoff victory. Starting anew at quarterback might have killed his chances for a revival in 2025. But with the Dolphins falling to 1-6 with a listless performance Sunday, Miami is experiencing the worst of both worlds: One of the NFL’s worst teams is now pot-committed to a Tier 3 quarterback.
Tagovailoa, who tossed three interceptions without a touchdown and fumbled three times in the rain-soaked loss to the Browns, is on pace for career worsts in yards per attempt (6.4), passer rating (82.1), sack rate (6.8 percent) and explosive pass rate (11.8 percent). His EPA per pass play (minus-.02) is his worst since his rookie season.
The Jaguars cannot relate just yet, but their day could be approaching. They have a first-year coach (Liam Coen) and a winning record (4-3). With coaches and executives around the league nearly unanimous in their belief that Lawrence lacks consistent accuracy, upper-tier production could be elusive.
One exec wondered how long Coen will want to stay the course with the laid-back Lawrence after working with the uber-competitive Baker Mayfield and Matthew Stafford in Coen’s previous stops. Tagovailoa and Murray fit similar profiles. No one sees them as natural leaders.
It’s mind boggling that Trevor Lawrence makes almost 11M per year more that Matthew Stafford.
— Richard Sherman (@RSherman_25) October 19, 2025
The Jaguars owe $37 million in fully guaranteed salary to Lawrence in 2026. The figure is $54 million for the Dolphins with Tagovailoa and $39 million for the Cardinals with Murray. All three landed in Tier 3 — guys teams win with, not because of — when 50 coaches and executives cast votes in 2025 Quarterback Tiers.