The National Hurricane Center on Monday said a Caribbean system has a high chance to form into Tropical Storm Melissa this week, with some forecast paths having it turn north and threaten landfall.
As of the NHC’s 8 p.m. tropical outlook, the tropical wave located in the eastern Caribbean Sea had a large area of showers and thunderstorms but still lacked a closed circulation.
“Environmental conditions are soon forecast to become more conducive for development,” forecasters said. “A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the next day or two while the system slows its forward motion over the central Caribbean Sea.”
Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty winds could increase over portions of the ABC islands in the southern Caribbean in the next couple of days.
The tropical outlook as of 8 p.m. Monday, Oct. 20, 2025. (NHC)
The NHC gave it a 90% chance to develop in the next two days, up from 70% earlier Monday, and a 90% chance to develop in the next seven.
It would be the 13th cyclone of the season. and if it develops into a named storm, it could become Tropical Storm Melissa.
Monday morning look at Invest 98. Appears to be organizing as it slides into the Caribbean. Few days at least waiting on a turn N/NE the likely scenario as of now. https://t.co/Hk3pbO84Yf pic.twitter.com/z4ayXSvFKc
— Mike’s Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) October 20, 2025
The long-term forecast models have it shifting from its westward path and turning back north, becoming a potential threat from Jamaica to Puerto Rico. Depending on which path it takes, it could also be of concern to Florida or the Bahamas.
“Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba should monitor its progress as there is a risk of heavy rain and flooding, strong winds and rough surf later this week,” forecasters said.
Of the 12 named storms this year, four have grown into hurricanes, and three of those became major hurricanes. Only one, Tropical Storm Chantal, made a U.S. landfall this year.
Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
Originally Published: October 20, 2025 at 8:00 AM EDT