On Saturday, sustained north winds are expected to exceed 20 mph, creating rough and choppy bay conditions, with seas reaching 8 to 10 feet outside the channel.

TAMPA, Fla. — Gasparilla is just days away, but this year’s pirate invasion may come with a serious warning for those planning to take part on the water.

With hazardous marine conditions in the forecast for Saturday, city leaders, law enforcement, Gasparilla organizers and experienced boaters are urging would-be pirates to carefully consider whether joining the invasion flotilla is worth the risk.

For many, the highlight of Gasparilla is the spectacle of hundreds of boats escorting Ye Mystic Krewe of Gasparilla into downtown Tampa. The tradition was on full display this week as pirates once again demanded the key to the city — and Mayor Jane Castor once again refused.

“I’m not gonna give our city up,” Castor declared, setting the stage for Saturday’s invasion.

But unlike the long-standing traditions of the celebration, the weather is a variable — and this year, it may not cooperate.

According to the Tampa Bay marine forecast, Saturday is expected to bring sustained north winds of more than 20 miles per hour, rough and choppy bay conditions, and seas reaching 8 to 10 feet outside the channel. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect, with the potential for cold rain as well.

Castor urged boaters to prioritize safety.

“Captains understand that if you own a boat, you have to look at the seas, what the wind is going to be,” Castor said. “It’s always better to be cautious and stay on the land as opposed to getting out on the water.”

Even seasoned Gasparilla pirates say the forecast is cause for concern.

“Realistically, listen to law enforcement,” said L.B. Sierra with Ye Mystic Krewe of Gasparilla. “We work with everyone, including the Coast Guard, Florida Fish and Wildlife and the Sheriff’s Office. Listen to what they’re directing the boats and getting people warnings.”

Sierra noted that the flotilla route has been altered in the past because of weather and could be changed again if conditions deteriorate.

“If the wind does come in like they are predicting, it’s probably not smart to be out there on a smaller vessel,” he said. “Leave it to the professionals.”

Officials say the danger isn’t just the wind and waves. With hundreds of boats packed tightly together, navigating safely becomes far more difficult — especially for smaller vessels and inexperienced operators.

In 1971, the flotilla itself was called off because of bad weather, though for now, the decision to participate is being left to individual boaters.

Some say the choice is an easy one.

“It’s just not ideal weather,” said boater Bryan Heady. “I’m not saying people shouldn’t go out and have fun — you should come absolutely. But in an actual boat? No, probably not a good idea.”

Heady added that experience, boat size and heavy traffic all factor into the risk.

“Things can always go wrong,” he said. “You’re going into a situation where there’s going to be a lot of people and a lot of boat traffic. Boats don’t have brakes. It’s not the same thing as a vehicle.”

Safety officials echo that message, reminding boaters that Florida law requires one Coast Guard-approved life jacket for each person on board, and that children under six must wear a life jacket at all times on vessels under 26 feet.

For some would-be pirates, officials say the safest option may be enjoying the invasion from shore — and letting the professionals handle the high seas.