The rumors are true — it could snow in Tampa this weekend as bitter cold temperatures and blustery winds move into the region.
But don’t expect a winter wonderland.
Any snowflakes that do fall would be brief, light, and wouldn’t stick to the ground. Forecast confidence for flurries sits around 10–20%, mainly near the coast, with the best chance from Citrus County south through Pinellas and Hillsborough counties.
This setup is being driven by a powerful coastal storm strengthening along the Carolinas while a strong Canadian high-pressure system pushes arctic air into Florida. As a cold front moves through Saturday, temperatures will actually fall during the afternoon, with northwest winds increasing to 15–25 mph and higher gusts near the coast.
Cold air moving over the warmer Gulf waters may generate narrow bands of “Gulf-effect” clouds and light showers offshore. If those clouds drift onshore late Saturday night, temperatures in the mid to upper 30s could briefly allow light rain to mix with snowflakes or flurries. In scenarios like this, drizzle can sometimes be mistaken for snow — but true frozen precipitation remains unlikely and short-lived.
When was the last time it snowed in Tampa?
We know northern Florida sees snow every so often. In fact, parts of the Panhandle saw 1-2 inches of snow sticking to the ground earlier this month.
But what about Tampa? Has it ever snowed here?
The last time there was enough snow to stick to the ground in Tampa was 49 years ago. On Jan. 19, 1977, the Tampa Bay area saw just enough snow to bring out the ruler, with .20 inches in Tampa and up to 2 inches in Plant City, according to the National Weather Service.
If we’re talking flurries only, like what’s possible this weekend, the most recent occurrence was Jan. 9, 2010, when sleet and a few snowflakes were reported but did not accumulate. Before that, the Tampa Bay area hadn’t seen flurries since Dec. 23, 1989.