The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday said it will begin advisories on newly formed Tropical Storm Melissa in the Caribbean, with an expected turn to the north that could threaten landfall on the Greater Antilles.
The first advisory will come at 11 a.m.
As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the area of low pressure was located in the central Caribbean Sea with satellite, radar and surface observations indicating a well-defined center in development with winds already up to 45 mph.
8 am EDT – A tropical storm is expected to form later today over the central Caribbean Sea. Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba should monitor the progress of this system as there is a risk
of heavy rain and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this… pic.twitter.com/3w0jrIa43P
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 21, 2025
“A tropical storm is expected to form later today while it slows down over the central Caribbean Sea. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands during the next day or two,” forecasters said. “Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba should monitor the progress of this system as there is a risk of heavy rain and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this week.”
And Air Force Hurricane Hunters flight is scheduled to investigate the system later today.
The NHC gave it a 100% chance to develop in the next two days.
It would be the 13th cyclone of the season.
Forecast models for what is expected to become Tropical Storm Melissa as of Tuesday morning, Oct. 21, 2025. (OrlandoSentinel.com/hurricane)
The long-term forecast models have it shifting from its westward path and turning back north, becoming a potential threat from Jamaica to Puerto Rico. Depending on which path it takes, it could also be of concern to Florida or the Bahamas.
Of the 12 named storms this year, four have grown into hurricanes, and three of those became major hurricanes. Only one, Tropical Storm Chantal, made a U.S. landfall this year.
Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
Originally Published: October 21, 2025 at 8:20 AM EDT