Feb. 1, 2026, 12:56 a.m. ET
The Boston Bruins (32-20-3) and Tampa Bay Lightning (34-14-4) meet Sunday in a Stadium Series game outdoors. Puck drop at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Bruins vs. Lightning and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Season series: Lightning lead 1-0, a 4-3 road win on Oct. 13
Temperatures are forecast to be 42 degrees at puck drop, with a 10-12 MPH wind, and humidity between 60-70 percent. The temperatures are unseasonably cool, even for Central Florida, and there were even brief rumors of snow flurries in the area, but that likely won’t come into fruition.
The only other time the Lightning played in an outdoor game was Feb. 26, 2022, at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee, in a Stadium Series game, and they won 3-2 as the Under cashed.
The Bruins last played an outdoor game at Fenway Park in the Winter Classic on Jan. 2, 2023, edging the Pittsburgh Penguins 2-1 as the Under easily came through. Prior to that, the B’s topped the Flyers 7-3 in an NHL Outdoors game at Lake Tahoe on Feb. 21, 2021, as the Over cashed. Boston has won 3 straight outdoor games since losing 5-1 in the Winter Classic on Jan. 1, 2016, against the Montreal Canadiens at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. They’re 4-1 all-time in 5 outdoor games, though.
Both of these teams come in on fire, as the Bruins are 4-0-1 in the past 5 games, while posting a 12-2-1 mark in the past 15 games, with the Over going 6-1 in the past 7 outings. The B’s topped the Philadelphia Flyers 6-3 Thursday, as C Fraser Minten and C Casey Mittelstadt each had a goal and 3 points in the win.
The Lightning topped the Winnipeg Jets 4-1 Thursday, moving to 16-1-1 in the past 18 games since Dec. 20. The lone regulation loss was with backup G Jonas Johansson in between the pipes. Starter G Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to be in there for this one.
Watch the NHL on Fubo!Bruins at Lightning odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:43 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Bruins +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Lightning -220 (bet $220 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Bruins +1.5 (-145) | Lightning -1.5 (+120)Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -105 | U: -115)Bruins at Lightning projected goalies
Jeremy Swayman (22-12-2, 2.87 GAA, .903 SV%, 1 SO) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (23-7-3, 2.10 GAA, .917 SV%, 1 SO)
Swayman allowed 3 goals on 36 shots in a 6-3 victory over the Flyers last time out Thursday. He is 7-2-0 with a 2.96 GAA and .902 SV% with 1 shutout in 9 starts in January. He did not face the Lightning in the first meeting in October.
Vasilevskiy has been on fire in January, allowing 1 or no goals in each of his past 5 starts, all victories. He is 9-0-1 with a 1.37 GAA and .941 SV% with 1 shutout in 10 starts in the month.
Bruins at Lightning picks and predictionsPrediction
Lightning 3, Bruins 2
The Lightning (-220) will cost you more than 2 times your potential return, and that’s a little too expensive for a standalone game.
It’s expensive, as it is, but especially so for an outdoor game, which can be somewhat unpredictable.
PASS, and look to the puck line instead.
The BRUINS +1.5 (-145) are a decent play for a little bit of insurance in this outdoor game.
If you like the home team instead, the Lightning have won 9 times by 2 or more goals in 11 victories across the past 13 games since flipping the calendar from December to January.
However, we should get a lower-scoring game in the outdoor contest, and it should be close, too.
UNDER 6 (-110) is worth a look in this outdoor game.
For the Lightning, Vasilevskiy has been a brick wall, allowing next to nothing in January, and the Under is 7-1 across the past 8 games.
The Bruins have cashed high in 6 of the past 7 games, but the Over-Under have split in the past 2 outings. Outdoors, in Florida, we should have somewhat sticky ice, and a slow start before the action picks up. In fact, going UNDER 1.5 – 1ST PERIOD (+100) at even-money is a strong play.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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