Feb. 7, 2026, 10:14 a.m. ET

Florida State basketball is set take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend, Indiana, on Saturday for what should be a highly contested ACC matchup, with ESPN’s Matchup Predictor projecting the Seminoles to have a 28.8% chance of winning on the road. Notre Dame’s home environment and statistical profile contribute to the Irish’s favored status, while FSU is projected as the underdog despite its recent improvements.

After showing signs of life in recent games, including offensive balance and key contributions from players like Chauncey Wiggins and Robert McCray V, Florida State faces a Notre Dame squad that has battled inconsistency but remains competitive in league play. The analytical outlook underscores how difficult road victories can be in the ACC, particularly in hostile environments like Purcell Pavilion.

Florida State enters with a 10-12 overall record and is 3-6 in ACC play, compared to Notre Dame’s 11-12 and 2-8 marks this season. The Irish have struggled recently, including a three-game losing streak and shooting woes, such as Notre Dame’s 38.7% field goal performance and 42.9% free-throw shooting in a 76-65 loss at Louisville.

FSU’s recent offense has shown sparks, highlighted by Chauncey Wiggins’ 23-point outing in the Seminoles’ 88-80 home win over Stanford and bench contributions in close wins over Miami and California. Those performances suggest growth on both ends of the floor, with deeper scoring threats emerging.

Looking at the teams’ offensive profiles, Florida State averages roughly 80.8 points per game, ranking above Notre Dame’s 73.6 points per game, which highlights FSU’s offensive potential, particularly from the perimeter and in transition.

The Seminoles also average 10.2 made three-pointers per game, outperforming Notre Dame’s average defensive allowance of 8.3 per contest. These factors offer FSU some offensive paths to keep the game competitive even as an underdog.

However, Notre Dame’s home defense and experience in handling pressure situations on its own court, despite recent offensive struggles, create obstacles for Florida State. Notre Dame’s ability to limit turnovers and control tempo at Purcell Pavilion could be decisive in a close contest.

This matchup promises to be closely contested, with FSU’s offensive firepower and recent growth meeting Notre Dame’s quest for consistency and response at home. While the Seminoles enter as underdogs per the ESPN Matchup Predictor projection, the game’s outcome could turn on execution in key moments, particularly if Florida State can crack Notre Dame early and limit defensive lapses.

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