The Miami Dolphins could be looking at their future when they face the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.

Kinda.

Allow us to explain.

When the Dolphins travel to Mercedes-Benz Stadium, they’ll be facing an Atlanta team that features the most expensive backup quarterback in the NFL in the form of Kirk Cousins.

Despite backing up starter Michael Penix Jr., Cousins carries a cap number of $40 million (per Over The Cap) in the second year of the four-year contract he signed with the Falcons as an unrestricted free agent during the 2024 offseason.

That figure is more than double the second-highest cap hit for the Falcons this year, which belonged to defensive lineman David Onyemata at a bit under $17 million.

What does that have to do with the Dolphins?

Well, Tua Tagovailoa’s performance in 2025, which includes three interceptions the past two games and a league-high 10 picks overall, has been problematic enough that head coach Mike McDaniel was asked Monday whether he was sticking with his starter.

But we’re fast approaching the point of diminishing returns with Tagovailoa and the idea of starting over at quarterback — among perhaps many places — pretty soon will start having some legs.

But the Dolphins are staring at Tagovailoa’s guaranteed salary for 2026 that brings with it a $56.4 million cap number, which actually moves up if the Dolphins were to release him — post-June 1 designation or not.

In an ideal world, the Dolphins could trade Tagovailoa, but finding a taker for a quarterback who already came with major injury concerns and now also has seen his performance head in the wrong direction won’t be easy, if not downright impossible.

The Falcons likely wouldn’t have minded getting rid of Cousins’ cap hit in 2025, but couldn’t find a team willing to take on his $27.5 million guaranteed salary for this year and $10 million guaranteed for 2026.

Tua’s contract calls for $39 million in guaranteed base salary in 2026, along with an $8 million signing bonus.

Again, good luck finding a market.

And releasing Tua next offseason makes zero sense from a cap standpoint because his cap number would then jump to either $67 million or $99 million.

So it is way more likely than not that Tua will be on the Dolphins roster in 2026, and he will be the starter unless his Cleveland performance starts becoming more than norm than an aberration.

But what if?

Yes, the Dolphins could decide to go the Russell Wilson route, like the Denver Broncos did when they released him in 2024 and absorbed a cap hit of $53 million last year and $32 million this year.

Again, not likely.

What’s more likely would be the Dolphins doing what the Falcons are doing with Cousins, find a new starter, and have Tua as a very, very expensive backup.

With Tyreek Hill and Bradley Chubb expected to be off the books before training camp next year, the Dolphins don’t have another player whose cap number for 2026 reaches $20 million, with the next-highest being Minkah Fitzpatrick at $18.8 million.

This is different than what the Falcons did with Cousins because they went out and got him with the idea he’d be their starting quarterback, only to go ahead and make Penix a top 10 pick in the draft a few weeks later.

When Cousins struggled and was injured, the Falcons got a look at Penix and decided their future needed to start right then and there, and just like that, Cousins became a very expensive backup.

The Dolphins’ situation is different, with Tua so far unable to perform at the level of the big-money contract extension he signed last summer.

In the end, it doesn’t matter how each got there, the bottom line is the Dolphins conceivably could be looking next year at the very QB scenario they’ll see across the field Sunday.

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