Despite historical evidence against wealth flight concerns, the Meta CEO is joining a growing list of tech titans exiting for Florida’s luxury market.

Meta chief Mark Zuckerberg is poised to become the newest billionaire on Miami’s so‑called Billionaire Bunker, a move that is already being read as a tax‑driven bet on Florida – and a fresh data point in California’s fight over how hard it can push its wealthiest residents.

Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan, are purchasing a newly built waterfront estate on Indian Creek, an ultraexclusive, guard‑gated island in Biscayne Bay, according to reporting first coming from The Wall Street Journal.

The sale has not officially closed, but neighbors confirmed to Fox News that Zuckerberg aims to be in the home by April, suggesting a primary residence shift rather than a trophy vacation add‑on.

The roughly 2‑acre spread is estimated at $150 million to $200 million based on comparable deals in the area. The reported seller is a limited liability company linked to Jersey Mike’s Subs founder Peter Cancro, who sold a majority stake in the sandwich chain to Blackstone in 2024 in an $8 billion transaction that included debt. For advisors, the off‑market sale between two ultra‑high‑net‑worth operators underscores how estate planning, privacy and state tax exposure increasingly intersect at the very top of the wealth spectrum.

Indian Creek has become a magnet for billionaires looking for a tightly managed, low‑profile base of operations. The enclave has only about 41 homes, a single access point and its own police presence, a setup that appeals to global names who want to limit visibility and control who comes near their front door. Among Zuckerberg’s would‑be neighbors: Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and former NFL star Tom Brady.

Real estate professionals say the pending deal cannot be separated from California’s proposed one‑time 5% wealth tax on residents with more than $1 billion in assets. The measure, backed by Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, has not yet qualified for the November ballot and faces opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom.

If it advances and passes, California residents who cross the billion‑dollar threshold as of Jan. 1 would owe the tax in 2027, with payments allowed over five years.

“People like Zuckerberg plan three moves ahead,” Troy Dean Home chief executive Troy Ippolito told Fox News Digital. “That billionaire tax chatter has a lot of Palo Alto owners doing real math. If you’re staring at a potential 5% hit tied to net worth, Florida becomes a business decision.”

For planners, the message from Miami brokers is that those decisions are already being made. Agents in South Florida report a spike in inbound interest from California since the start of the year, including from founders and tech executives who are actively writing offers in the $30 million‑to‑$150 million range and above. One Miami broker told Bloomberg that the current wave of Californians shopping for luxury property is stronger than any she has previously seen.

Other tech leaders have made parallel moves, including Google cofounder Larry Page, who has reportedly assembled a three‑property compound in Miami’s Coconut Grove in deals totaling more than $180 million. Like Indian Creek, those purchases appear aimed at securing Florida residency while waiting for more inventory in an extremely tight high‑end market.

Read more: RIAs weigh exits amid California billionaire tax proposal

Still, the historical record on “tax flight” is murkier than the current headlines suggest. Reporting by Capital & Main points to Massachusetts, where a surcharge on incomes above $1 million took effect in 2022. Rather than an exodus, the state saw the number of people with at least $50 million in wealth and those earning $1 million or more increase, even as it collected billions in new revenue earmarked for public services.

“There is almost no historical evidence to support the idea that higher state taxes cause rich people to move from where they live,” Capital & Main noted, citing recent research that found only a small fraction of millionaires relocate each year primarily for tax reasons.

Some high‑profile billionaires, including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, have publicly shrugged off California’s proposed levy. “We chose to live in Silicon Valley, and whatever taxes they would like to apply, so be it,” Huang told CNBC last month.

Of course, there’s a first time for everything … and the collision of California’s tax proposal with unprecedented mobility among the uber-wealthy could very well mark the latest turning point.