Tropical Storm Melissa Forms in Caribbean as Forecasters Monitor Uncertain Path

Tropical Storm Melissa has officially formed in the Caribbean, becoming the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) based in Miami.

While Tropical Storm Melissa currently poses no immediate threat to Florida, forecasters are closely monitoring its movement as spaghetti models reveal multiple possible tracks — some of which could eventually steer the system closer to the Gulf of Mexico.

Where Is Tropical Storm Melissa Now?

As of Tuesday evening, Melissa was located approximately 305 miles south of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, moving west at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph. Tropical storm-force winds are currently extending up to 140 miles from the storm’s center, according to the NHC.

Satellite imagery shows a large, well-organized system with widespread rain bands sweeping across parts of the central Caribbean. Rainfall projections indicate up to 10 inches may fall across Haiti and the Dominican Republic by Friday, bringing an increased risk of flash flooding and landslides.

Other areas, including Jamaica, Aruba, and Puerto Rico, may experience up to 3 inches of rain during the same period.

Hurricane Watch and Warnings Issued

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for:

Southern coast of Haiti

Tiburon Peninsula

A Tropical Storm Watch is in place for:

Meteorologists are warning that the storm may strengthen into Hurricane Melissa, potentially reaching Category 1 status as it lingers near Hispaniola or moves toward Cuba.

What Do the Spaghetti Models Say?

The latest spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Melissa show a range of possible trajectories. Some models suggest the storm may curve north or northwest into the Atlantic, while others indicate a westward path toward Central America or even into the Gulf of Mexico.

“There is still significant uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast,” said the National Hurricane Center. “Melissa may slow down due to weakening steering currents, increasing the potential for extended rainfall over impacted areas.”

If Melissa drifts westward and survives interaction with mountainous terrain in Hispaniola, its remnants or a reorganized system could threaten areas along the Gulf Coast in the longer term — though South Florida remains outside the projected cone of uncertainty for now.

Is Tropical Storm Melissa a Threat to Florida?

At this time, Tropical Storm Melissa is not expected to impact Florida directly. The hurricane tracker models released by the NHC on Tuesday afternoon show no imminent risk to South Florida, and most models keep the system well south of the U.S. mainland.

However, meteorologists caution that conditions can change rapidly, especially if the storm slows down or enters warmer Gulf waters.

Preparations Underway in the Caribbean

In Haiti and the Dominican Republic, emergency crews and families are rushing to secure homes and shelters ahead of the storm’s expected landfall. The NHC has urged all affected regions to complete storm preparations by Thursday.

In a statement, the Haitian government said it has mobilized disaster response teams and is coordinating with international aid groups to prepare for potential evacuations.

🌪️ Quick Facts: Tropical Storm Melissa at a Glance

Status: Active tropical storm (as of Oct. 21, 2025)

Location: 305 miles south of Port-au-Prince, Haiti

Movement: West at 15 mph

Max Winds: 50 mph

Watches/Warnings: Hurricane Watch (Haiti), Tropical Storm Watch (Jamaica)

Rainfall Risks: Up to 10 inches in parts of Hispaniola

U.S. Impact: Low risk for Florida at this time

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SFL Media will continue to monitor Tropical Storm Melissa and bring you breaking updates as new models emerge. For more coverage on hurricanes and Florida weather, visit our Hurricane News Section.