While portions of the Caribbean brace for impacts from Tropical Storm Melissa, Florida residents should keep a wary eye on the storm.

“There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Melissa,” the National Hurricane Center continued to say, but added “the chances of a major hurricane increase” if Melissa tracks farther to the southwest.

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A major hurricane is one that’s at least a Category 3 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph.

What’s more certain is Melissa could become a hurricane on Thursday, Oct. 23, the Hurricane Center said.

So could Melissa impact Florida?

“The longer Melissa tracks to the west, the greater the chance of an impact on the U.S.,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

“The chances of a direct U.S. hit from Melissa are low right now, but it is still an option,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “The U.S. concern for impacts will be in the Florida Peninsula, especially the lower portion of the Peninsula and the Keys.”

Even the East Coast of the U.S. could feel some impacts from Melissa — rain, wind and rough seas — later this month, even if the center remains at sea, according to AccuWeather.

Here’s what you should know.

Highlights on what Tropical Storm Melissa is doing now

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. 

Location: 305 miles south-southwest of Port Au Prince, Haiti; 954 miles southeast of Naples

Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph

Movement: west-northwest at 7 mph

Tropical Storm Melissa: What you need to know

At 5 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 73.5 West.

Melissa is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph. A decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected during the next few days.

On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.

Some gradual strengthening is anticipated during the next few days, and Melissa could become a hurricane on Thursday, Oct. 23.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb

Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Melissa

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

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See map of hurricane/tropical storm watches, warnings issued for Florida

As of 5 a.m. Oct. 22, no watches or warnings associated with Tropical Storm Melissa have been issued for Florida or the U.S.

What tropical storm, hurricane warnings have been issued for Tropical Storm Melissa?

A hurricane watch is in effect for:

Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A tropical storm watch is in effect for:

A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A tropical storm watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

How strong is Tropical Storm Melissa and where is it going?

Tropical Storm Melissa has slowed down and is currently moving west-northwest at 7 mph. The National Hurricane Center expects Melissa’s speed to decrease further.

A gradual turn to the northwest or north-northwest is expected during the next few days. When that turn happens is important for Florida residents.

Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?

“There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Melissa,” the National Hurricane Center said.

“The longer Melissa tracks to the west, the greater the chance of an impact on the U.S.,” Rayno said.

“The U.S. concern for impacts will be in the Florida Peninsula, especially the lower portion of the Peninsula and the Keys. Strong westerly winds, driven by the jet stream, should prevent the storm from tracking into Texas, Louisiana and the panhandles of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida next week.”

“At this time, I think the chances of any direct or even indirect impacts on Florida, beyond waves and rip currents, are very low, around 15% or so,” said DaSilva via email Oct. 21.

“If Florida were to see any impacts, it would likely be around the middle of next week — Wednesday through Friday (Oct. 29-31). There’s nothing imminent right now, but it’s something to keep an eye on over the next few days as we monitor trends and model data.”

Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Melissa

Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend, bringing a risk of significant flash flooding and landslides.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the southwestern peninsula of Haiti where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by Thursday.

There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Melissa is likely to encounter moderate wind shear for the next few days, counteracted by the very warm and moist conditions in the Caribbean Sea. This pattern favors slow intensification.

Chances of a major hurricane increase if this forecast were to trend farther southwest at long range.

Current forecast: Where is Tropical Storm Melissa going and how strong could it get?

“While there is still a large forecast intensity uncertainty, the chances of a major hurricane increase if this forecast were to trend farther southwest at long range,” the National Hurricane Center said.

What impact could Tropical Storm Melissa have and what areas could be affected?

Wind: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti beginning late on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in Jamaica late on Thursday or Friday.

Rainfall: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday; however, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant flash flooding and landslides are possible.

Across the northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected through Saturday. For Aruba and Puerto Rico, 1 to 3 inches are expected through the same period. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Saturday.

Surf: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days.

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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Tropical Storm Melissa track, intensity uncertain Wednesday