Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Miami OH RedHawks and the Ohio Bobcats.
Battle of the Bricks always turns Oxford into a pressure cooker, because the favorite has everything to lose and the underdog gets to play with nerve. Tonight is that exact posture test for Miami OH, sitting 24-0 and ranked No. 23 nationally, with the entire league swinging at its legs. Ohio walks in as the irritant, living in the mud of the MAC middle and trying to drag this into a possession game. The noise will be cacophonous inside Millett Hall, and the whistle always feels louder in rivalry air. Oxford never gives this rivalry a clean rhythm. Miami (OH) sits 24-0, 11-0 in the MAC, ranked and hunted. Ohio arrives 13-12, 7-5 in league play, with just enough recent punch to make this uncomfortable. The building will buzz, but rivalry games don’t erase good math and hot hands. They just test which angles survive noise. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Miami OH RedHawks and the Ohio Bobcats.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Miami’s season-long offense is elite: 1.191 points per possession, 60.1% eFG, 63.0% on twos, 37.7% from three. Ohio sits at 1.045 with a 51.2% eFG and 29.8% from three. That gap screams separation on paper. But conference splits matter more here than full-season glow. Ohio is fourth in the MAC in effective field-goal defense, and in league play it has held opponents to 50.8% at the rim. That’s the exact place Miami usually eats. On the other end, Ohio has hit 56.3% of its twos in conference while protecting the ball, which is the cleanest way to shorten a favorite’s margin. Miami, meanwhile, has allowed 54% on twos in MAC games. That is not a shutdown interior profile. When the favorite’s biggest edge is finishing and the dog’s biggest strength is rim defense, the spread gets tight. Miami’s can still keep space, though, because its top shooters live near the top of the league tables.
Miami doesn’t dominate the offensive glass, though, and in conference it has struggled to create second shots. That removes one classic blowout accelerant. Ohio’s offensive rebounding rate sits at 26.8%, and even modest success there steals possessions that a -9.5 favorite usually needs to cover comfortably. Ball security is the other huge-weight lens. Miami’s turnover rate is solid at 13.7%, but Ohio’s defensive steal rate is active enough to force runouts in the other direction. If this becomes a live-ball game, volatility favors the team catching points. The closing lane matters too, because Miami shoots 76.8% at the line while Ohio sits at 69.9%, and that gap shows up the moment a game hits the foul window. That doesn’t outright veto the underdog, here, but it’s a massive note for how a cover can die late.
Jackson Paveletzke (G) is the stabilizer Ohio will absolutely need in a hostile gym, averaging 16.6 points with 127 assists and shooting efficiently from two. He’s also carrying real national posture as a creator, sitting 54th nationally in assists per game. Aidan Hadaway (F) brings 7.5 rebounds per game and lives around the rim, which directly tests Miami’s 54% two-point defense in conference. Javan Simmons (F) gives Ohio a physical scoring option that doesn’t rely on hot threes. Miami counters with spacing and shotmaking. Brant Byers (G) has 51 made threes at 40.8%, and that percentage sits right on the MAC leaderboard line. Peter Suder (G) shoots 55.9% overall while orchestrating the offense, and he’s 57th nationally in field-goal percentage. Antwone Woolfolk (G) finishes at 64.3% and punishes switches, and his efficiency lives in the national top tier at 11th in field-goal percentage. Ohio’s strengths intersect Miami’s softer conference splits.
Ohio vs. Miami OH pick, best bet
Miami scores 92.7 per game and closes at 77.3% from the line. Ohio shoots 70.4% at the stripe, which is a real foul-window disadvantage late. If Miami builds a ten-point lead with five minutes left, free throws can extend it. That’s the primary failure mode. But rivalry tempo cuts both ways. Both teams play in the low 70s in possessions, and Ohio’s recent stretch—95 at Buffalo, 91 on Western Michigan—shows it can contribute offensively. This does not profile as a slow, 64-possession rock fight. It profiles as a competitive, structured game where Ohio can score enough to avoid getting buried. It also isn’t theory with these two, because Miami already survived an 86-84 game at home in late January, and that’s the exact tight-late shape this number hates. Miami’s current run still deserves respect, because it just took road wins at Buffalo and Marshall, then came home still unbeaten.
The script I expect is this: Miami leans into pick-and-roll spacing and three-point volume early. Ohio answers by driving the lane, forcing help, and playing through twos instead of praying for threes. The rim-defense numbers hold just enough to keep Miami’s efficiency from ballooning. The offensive glass steals a few extra trips. The game tightens in the final four minutes, and the spread becomes more about closing than dominance. Over the last month, Ohio is shooting 45.1% overall. Red Hawks in this period is surrendering 46% shooting overall. I’ll take the cushion.
Best bet: Ohio +9.5. Predicted score: somewhere in the ballpark of Miami (OH) 86, Ohio 80. I don’t mind the o163.5 here, either, but something just tells me the Bobcats’ recent form might show up in a big way befit of the Battle of the Bricks tonight.
Best bet: Ohio +9.5 (-110) at Miami OH
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!