Both teams are hot with the SEC lead up for grabs in the head-to-head matchup in Gainesville, Kentucky winning eight of its last nine while Florida has won nine of ten. All eyes are on the frontcourt with the Gators boasting arguably the best group in college basketball — but Denzel Aberdeen will have something to say about the backcourt in the Orlando native’s return home, taking on his old coach and teammates.
Can the Wildcats get it done to take over first place in the league? KSR’s Parlour Pizza Pregame Predictions are in, and the consensus is that it’s going to be an uphill battle for the road underdogs in the O’Dome.
Drew Franklin
Florida appears to be a level above the rest of the conference right now. Since losing to Auburn, the Gators rattled off four straight wins by an average margin of 27.25 points per game, winning at South Carolina, Texas A&M, and Georgia, and beating 23rd-ranked Alabama in Gainesville. Sure, Kentucky is on quite a roll itself, winning eight of nine conference games for second place in the conference. But Florida looks like a contender to repeat as national champs, ranked fifth in KenPom and projected to win all of its remaining SEC games.
Both teams are peaking at the right time, but Florida has the higher ceiling and homecourt advantage. I predict the Gators get a W in Round 1 in the O’Dome on Saturday in a much closer game than Florida’s last four. Kentucky stays behind six to eight points for most of the game, unable to overpower that frontcourt in Gainesville. Florida stays No. 1 in the league.
Score: Florida 83, Kentucky 76
Nick Roush
It’s gonna be a no for me, dog.
Physicality was a problem for Mark Pope a year ago. This team has handled its most physical SEC opponents better than expected. However, what Florida does is different. It’s not hockey basketball. Thomas Haugh can stretch you out, while Rueben Chinyelu is like Spider-Man’s foe, Venom. His arms are like tendrils, spreading all across the court, everywhere at once.
We’ve seen Brandon Garrison and Malachi Moreno have their moments. What’s going to happen when a few fouls add up in a rowdy environment? It’s going to be hard to beat fire with fire from behind the three-point line. Maybe Kentucky can master the mighty undertaking at Rupp Arena, but it’s hard to see it happening in Gainesville.
Score: Florida 85, Kentucky 73
Adam Luckett
The good news for Kentucky is that Florida really is just a better version of Tennessee. The bad news for Kentucky is that the Wildcats need some big-time clutch plays in crunch time to get by Tennessee. Relying on a big second-half comeback is not going to get the job done in Gainesville.
The Gators have beaten everyone by 19 points or more since the surprising home loss to Auburn. This team crushes on the glass (No. 2 in offensive rebound rate, No. 4 in defensive rebound rate) and is absurd at protecting the paint on defense (No. 6 in two-point field goal percentage allowed). Scoring in the paint will be an issue. Keeping Florida off the glass will be an issue.
When UK has seen games get away from them on the road, it’s mostly because they just couldn’t make outside shots. Threes weren’t needed against a sub-200 Arkansas two-point defense but they will be needed against Florida. The Cats are going to lose on the glass, and they’re probably going to lose in the paint. For the road team to have a true chance, they have to make a bad Florida shooting team (No. 349 nationally in three-point field goal percentage) remain a bad shooting team and must get some perimeter shotmaking. If UK can hold Florida to their season average and get 10-plus makes from three, there will be a chance to win the game in the final eight minutes.
The answer is probably somewhere in between.
UK shoots under 40 percent from two and hits some threes but not enough. Florida also struggles to shoot it but the inside game eventually allows them to separate. There is a very good chance that this turns into a rock fight. Don’t be surprised if this game turns into a double big battle with Brandon Garrison getting some heavy minutes next to Malachi Moreno.
Florida has the lead throughout. Kentucky hangs around but never truly makes a big push in the second half in a game that turns into a grinder.
Score: Florida 74, Kentucky 63
Tyler Thompson
I hate to be the fourth person in a row to pick the Gators, but here we go. Kentucky has proven it is capable of coming back from big halftime deficits. The Cats have also shown they can win against good teams on the road, pulling off the upset at a raucous Bud Walton Arena a few weeks ago. On Saturday, they may have to do both against the best team in the league.
Florida’s frontcourt is a problem. Rueben Chinyelu looks like the second coming of Oscar Tshiebwe this season, a massive challenge for Malachi Moreno and Brandon Garrison. The same goes for Andrija Jelavic and Collin Chandler with Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh. Kentucky has an advantage in the backcourt with Denzel Aberdeen and Otega Oweh, but both will have to turn in massive performances to make up for the mismatch inside. Hopefully, Aberdeen is ready for his homecoming. If Kentucky’s going to pull off the upset, they’ll need multiple threes from him, Oweh, and Chandler.
Even if Kentucky loses, Saturday could be telling. Two weeks ago, the Cats got run on a bad night vs. Vanderbilt. If the Gators get up big tomorrow, will Kentucky fight back as we’ve seen on so many occasions? I think they will, even if it doesn’t end with a victory.
Florida wins, but Kentucky can get them back to end the regular season at Rupp.
Score: Florida 82, Kentucky 75
Zack Geoghegan
Can Kentucky hit enough three-pointers to stick around down the stretch? I think that will be the deciding factor in how this game plays out. UK has only hit 10 or more triples in SEC games three times this season, although all three ended in wins for the ‘Cats. Florida is among the worst three-point shooting teams in the SEC, but they don’t give up many on the other end. Kentucky needs to win that battle to have a real chance.
But even that might not be enough. Florida has the best offensive and defensive unit in SEC play so far. They will likely win the rebounding battle no matter what. I think Mark Pope will break out some more zone defense than usual to keep the Gators on the their toes, and he’ll find some success with it. This game being played on the road only adds to the challenge for Kentucky, though. I do believe this one will be close in the final minutes, and that UK will have a chance to come out on top, but there is just too much going against the Wildcats’ favor.
Score: Florida 79, Kentucky 74
Jacob Polacheck
I guess I locked myself in on Thursday’s Happy Hour. I’m picking Kentucky to pull off the upset.
This game is headlined by Denzel Aberdeen, who will face his former team, the Gators, fresh off a national title. He’s my pick for game MVP, as he’s been excellent in SEC play and has even more motivation to play well on Saturday.
Rueben Chinyelu is going to be a difficult matchup for Malachi Moreno and Brandon Garrison, but with how both have played of late, it’s not an impossible task. There’s another storyline with former Kentucky commit Boogie Fland taking the court for UF. Last year, the Kentucky vs. Florida game was one of the most entertaining all year. This year, I’m expecting similar.
Score: Kentucky 91, Florida 88 (OT)
Jack Pilgrim
I predicted a blowout loss at Arkansas and it turned into the best win of the year. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right?
Everything about the matchup in Fayetteville appeared to favor the Razorbacks, only for the Wildcats to play their most complete game of the season with an unexpected red-hot start. This feels the same way, Florida coming in ranked No. 1 in rebounding average, margin and on the offensive glass with the No. 5 defense and No. 14 offense, according to KenPom. They’re a horrific perimeter shooting team at No. 349, but absolutely dominate the paint on both ends. There aren’t many three-headed frontcourt monsters better than Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu in all of college basketball.
The recipe is simple for Kentucky: make shots and don’t get absolutely torched inside. This is a Mo Dioubate game to help win the toughness battle and we need Malachi Moreno to respond to the physicality the same way he did against Tennessee a week ago.
I have a sneaking suspicion the Cats are in a position to make a move late and potentially win the game, but I have to take one for the team and put my jinx in writing. Whatever it takes to make it nine of ten wins and take over the SEC lead.
Score: Florida 81, Kentucky 71
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No. 25 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Florida: How to Watch, Listen
Tipoff: Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC (Karl Ravech, Jimmy Dykes)
Local Radio: UK Sports Network (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
AM: 840 WHAS, 630 WLAP
FM: 98.1 WBUL
Online:Â iHeart Radio
Sirius XM: 385
You can also follow along on the KSR LIVE BLOG, which will start a few hours before tipoff, and join the conversation on KSBoard.