As the Miami Dolphins got set to begin their preparations Wednesday for their Week 8 game against the Atlanta Falcons, Mike McDaniel remained as their head coach.
That this even needs to be mentioned tells you all you need to know about the state of the franchise because there was an awful lot of buzz that the Dolphins’ 31-6 loss against the Cleveland Browns Sunday might have signaled the end of McDaniel’s tenure with the Dolphins.
Miami, for all intents and purposes, is done for 2025 in terms of playoff aspirations, which means the streak without a postseason victory will now extend to a league-high 25 seasons.
And this is after owner Stephen Ross’ mandate that the status quo would not be acceptable when he released a statement at the end of the 2024 season in January to affirm that McDaniel and GM Chris Grier would be back for another go despite fan outcry demanding both be gone.
The biggest question surrounding McDaniel right now isn’t whether he’ll be back as Dolphins head coach in 2026, but rather whether he’ll make it through a full fourth season, something no Miami coach has done since Dave Wannstedt from 2000-03 before he was fired nine games into his fifth season.
Once the Dolphins started 0-3, a hole from which few NFL teams have recovered, the speculation began as to when McDaniel might be fired.
When it comes to in-season coaching changes, the ideal time — if there is such a thing — is during the bye, because it gives the interim head coach an extra week to prepare for his next game.
For the Dolphins in 2025, that will come in Week 12 after they face the Washington Commanders in the first-ever game in Spain on Nov. 16. If the Dolphins are, say, 2-9 at that point, it would or should surprise no one if Ross made a move at that time.
There’s also a mini-bye, which will come after the Dolphins face the Baltimore Ravens in the Week 9 Thursday night game. Could the Dolphins make a move then if they’re 1-8 — incidentally the same record they had in 2004 when Wannstedt was fired?
But it wouldn’t have surprised anyone had a move been made immediately after the game at Cleveland on Sunday or on Monday, given the embarrassing performance offered by Miami against a punchless team that had won only one game and had failed to score more than 17 points in any of its previous six outings.
Ross instead stayed the course, this time with no statement or announcement, meaning no news was good news for McDaniel.
That McDaniel was kept after that embarrassing performance, which came one week after quarterback Tua Tagovailoa took a public shot at the “team leadership” and perhaps directly or indirectly at McDaniel, suggests Ross is not close to ready to make a move, an idea backed by ESPN insider Adam Schefter’s reports that no change is coming “anytime soon.”
So could McDaniel actually make it through the season, regardless of the mounting losses?
Here’s a nugget to keep in mind.
Ross has fired four head coaches during his time as Dolphins owner, which began in 2009: Tony Sparano, Joe Philbin, Adam Gase and Brian Flores.
Sparano, who was hired by previous owner Wayne Huizenga, was fired 13 games into his fourth season; Philbin was fired four games into his fourth season; Gase was fired after his third season; Flores was fired after his third season.
So maybe Ross decided after Sparano and Philbin that he didn’t like firing coaches during the season, and maybe that leads him to keep McDaniel the whole season.
Or is it possible that Ross simply hasn’t decided yet whether to make a coaching change, period, and that McDaniel could be back in 2026?
Given the mandate from January and the way this season so quickly has gone off the rails, that seems highly unlikely, but what if the Dolphins were to make a second-half run like they did last year when they won six of eight to put themselves in playoff contention heading into the final day of the regular season despite starting 2-6?
Again, highly unlikely, but we don’t know for sure and won’t know for sure what Ross is thinking until and unless he releases another statement because he hasn’t talked to the media about the Dolphins in a few years now.
The next question is: assuming there’s no way McDaniel will be back as head coach in 2026, does it really matter when his firing occurs?
Well, actually, it kind of does.
As long as McDaniel remains head coach, his sole focus should remain on winning games in the 2025 season and helping his record and resume as much as he can.
From an organizational standpoint, though, the focus of the season should start turning from the 2025 season to 2026 and beyond, which means playing younger players to evaluate who should and shouldn’t be part of the future.
Unless McDaniel is guaranteed to be part of that future, his best interests would run counter to those of the organization.
For example, McDaniel announced Monday that Tagovailoa would remain the starting quarterback despite his poor performance at Cleveland and the team’s disastrous record. That makes all the sense in the world because Tua is the one who gives the Dolphins (and McDaniel) the best chance to win at this moment.
But what about a month from now, when the Dolphins might be 2-10 and out of playoff contention, and at that point, should they really get rookie seventh-round pick Quinn Ewers some starts to see exactly what they have in him?
Would McDaniel really be the right man to coach Ewers at that point? Would he even want to be (again, assuming he wouldn’t be back)?
If Ross already has decided to move on from McDaniel after this season, it probably behooves him to make the switch the second the organization decides to shift the focus from winning games to player evaluation.
There’s no guarantee that’s what will happen, but it would seem to make the most sense.
But all scenarios are on the table because, again, Ross isn’t addressing the media the way New York Jets owner Woody Johnson did at the league’s fall meetings Tuesday.
So what we’re left with is a guessing game of sorts and applying logic with facts and precedents we have.
And everything points to the apparent inevitability of a coaching change, but no guarantee that it will happen during the season.
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