Paolo Banchero and the Orlando Magic are heavily favored in their season opener on Wednesday night against the Miami Heat, and oddsmakers are high on the Magic in general this season.
Orlando has the third-highest win total in the Eastern Conference after it made an all-in move, trading for guard Desmond Bane in the offseason. Now, Orlando is looking to prove that it can contend atop the East after an injury-riddled 2024-25 season left the team at 41-41.
Miami won’t have All-Star guard Tyler Herro in the season opener due to a foot injury, but it still has an upgraded roster from what last season’s squad looked like after the Jimmy Butler trade.
Andrew Wiggins is now with the team for a full season and Miami traded for guard Norman Powell, giving up Kevin Love and Kyle Anderson, in the offseason. On top of that, the team landed an interesting prospect with the No. 20 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft in former Illinois guard Kasparas Jakučionis.
The Heat are underdogs to make the playoffs in the latest odds, but they’ve done so in each of the last six seasons under Erik Spoelstra.
Can Miami steal a game on the road in this season opener?
Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Wednesday’s contest.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Moneyline
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Heat Injury ReportMagic Injury ReportMagic Best NBA Prop Bet
Bane should step into a huge role on offense for an Orlando team that has struggled to score the ball in recent seasons, and I love this 3-point prop for him on Wednesday night.
Bane averaged just 2.4 made 3s per game last season (on 6.1 attempts), taking 2.5 less 3s per game than he did in the 2023-24 season. I think that number jumps back up in Orlando, and it’s worth noting that Bane has attempted 6.9. 7.0, 8.6 and 6.1 3-pointers per game in his last four seasons, averaging at least 2.9 3s per game in three of them.
Last season feels like a bit of an anomaly, as Bane’s overall shots per game went from 18.5 to 14.8 for the Memphis Grizzlies.
In Orlando, he’s clearly the best perimeter shooter on the roster, and he should get some pretty good looks playing off of Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero. Plus, Miami was in the middle of the pack when it came to defending the 3 last season, ranking 14th in opponent 3-point percentage and 16th in opponent 3s made per game.
It’ll be interesting to see how these teams profile in the 2025-26 season, but going back to last season, these squads were perfect when it came to betting the UNDER.
They both were top-10 in the NBA in defensive rating (Orlando was second, Miami was ninth) and bottom 10 in the league in offensive rating (Orlando was 27th, Miami was 21st) while also playing at slow paces (Orlando was 30th, Miami was 27th).
Now, the Magic could end up being more explosive with Bane in the fold this season, but that doesn’t mean that they’ll immediately get out and run. For a team that has been in the bottom half of the league in offensive rating for the entire 2020s, betting on Orlando suddenly becoming an elite offense is a bit of a stretch.
On the Miami side, this offense may have some growing pains early in the season with Herro (foot) on the sidelines. He was the team’s leading scorer and leading assist man in the 2024-25 season.
Lastly, these teams played four times in the 2024-25 season, falling short of this total twice. One of the times they cleared this line was in a double overtime game, so it’s hard to take much away from that matchup.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see a lower-scoring affair between these division rivals on opening night.
Pick: UNDER 215.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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