MIAMI — The goal from the outset, first at media day in September at Kaseya Center and then in October at training camp at Florida Atlantic University, was to avoid the pre-playoff play-in round.

It might not have come off as very Heat-like — “Sixth place or bust!” — but after three consecutive seasons in the play-in bracket, the modest target at least was a realistic target.

Through November and into December, the Miami Heat were trending in precisely that direction, fourth place in the East in mid-November, third later that month.

At 14-7, it was as if a top-six finish was the minimum.

Now? Now as the Heat prepare to return from an eight-day All-Star break, it’s beginning to again feel a lot like play-in.

Says who? Says . . .

— ESPN’s power index entering the NBA’s Thursday resumption of play has the 29-27 Heat forecast to remain where they currently stand in the East, with an eighth-place finish at 43-39. According to that power index, the Heat have only a 33.5% chance of finishing in the top six of the East, and a 65.4% chance of returning to the play-in round (Seeds No. 7-10). Through it all, it has the Heat with a 74.3% chance of then advancing to the playoffs.

— According to Basketball Reference’s Playoff Probabilities Report, the Heat are projected to finish No. 7 in the East at 44-48, with a 50.9% chance of finishing in the top six of the East, otherwise a 49% chance of returning to the play-in round. Overall, that model has the Heat with an 86.4% chance of making the playoffs.

— According to Team Rankings, the Heat are projected for a 44-38 record and No. 7 finish in the East.

— According to Power Rankings Guru, the Heat are projected for a 44-48 record and No. 7 finish in the East.

And then there is the actual math and what the Heat are up against.

Eastern Conference standings

1. Detroit Pistons, 40-13. The Heat are not making up a 12 1/2-game gap. No need for further discussion here.

2. Boston Celtics, 35-19. As a matter of perspective, if the Celtics close 14-14 the rest of the way, the Heat would have to go 21-5 to catch the Celtics, considering Boston already has clinched the season-series tiebreaker.

3. New York Knicks, 35-20. If the Knicks go 14-13 the rest of the way, the Heat would have to go 20-6 to tie New York and then find a way to win the tiebreaker, with the season series ending 2-2. As of now, the Knicks control that tiebreaker via conference record.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers, 34-21. If the Cavaliers go 14-13 the rest of the way, the Heat would have to go 19-7 to tie Cleveland. The teams are tied 1-1 in the season series that concludes with games remaining in Cleveland on March 25 and March 27.

5. Toronto Raptors, 32-23. If the Raptors go 14-13 the rest of the way,  the Heat would have to go 17-9 to tie Toronto. The Raptors lead the season series 2-1, with games remaining in Toronto on April 7 and April 7.

6. Philadelphia 76ers, 30-24. If the 76ers go 14-14 the rest of the way, the Heat would have to go 15-11 to tie Philadelphia. The Heat lead the season series 1-0, with games remaining in the series on Feb. 26 in Philadelphia and March 30 in Miami.

7. Orlando Magic, 28-25. If the Magic go 15-14 the rest of the way, the Heat would have to go 15-11 to pass the Magic, since Orlando already won the season series (4-0), with a March 14 game in Miami remaining between the teams.

8. Miami Heat, 29-27. If the current standings hold, under the rules of the play-in, the Heat would play at Orlando in their play-in opener, with the winner becoming the No. 7 East playoff seed. The loser of that game would then host the winner of the Nos. 9-10 game for the right to become the No. 8 East playoff seed, otherwise going to the draft lottery.

9. Charlotte Hornets, 26-29. If the Heat go 13-13 the rest of the way, the Hornets would have to go 16-11 to tie the Heat. The Heat led the season series 2-0, with games remaining in Charlotte on March 6 and March 17.

10. Atlanta Hawks, 26-30. If the Heat go 13-13 the rest of the way, the Hawks would have to go 16-10 to tie the Heat. The season series is tied 1-1, with the Heat resuming their post-break schedule Friday in Atlanta and the Hawks playing April 12 in Miami.

The rest of the East: Of the remaining five teams in the East, only the No. 12 Milwaukee Bucks (23-30) have shown any desire to push for a potential playoff berth. If the Heat closed 13-13, the Bucks would have to finish 19-10 to catch Miami. The Heat lead the season series 1-0, with games remaining  Feb. 24 Milwaukee and March 12 in Miami.

Otherwise, No. 11 Chicago (24-31) sold off leading players Ayo Dosunmu, Coby White and Nikola Vucevic at the trade deadline, while No. 13  Brooklyn (15-38), No. 14 Indiana (15-40) and No. 15 Washington (14-39) have been playing for the lottery since opening night.