In the last month, Democrats have overtaken Republicans in ruby-red legislative districts in Louisiana and Texas.

Could they do it again in Florida?

Voters will decide in a March 24 special election who will replace Jay Collins as their representative in state Senate District 14, which covers part of Hillsborough County. Collins, a Republican, was tapped in August by Gov. Ron DeSantis to be lieutenant governor.

A little more than three years ago, a Democrat, former Florida House Minority Leader Janet Cruz, served this district, which encompasses much of Hillsborough west of Interstate 275, including South Tampa, Town ‘N Country, Lutz and Carrollwood.

Collins snatched the seat from Cruz, a two-term incumbent, by almost 10 points in 2022. Then, Democrats had a registration advantage of more than 3,000 in the district. Two years later, there were about 14,000 more Republicans than Democrats.

Both Josie Tomkow, a Republican state representative, and Democratic union leader Brian Nathan think they can win the special election to replace Collins.

Tomkow has built a financial arsenal as a sitting member of the Florida Legislature. Last year, she had more than $3.3 million in one political committee she leads, Florida Farmers and Ranchers United, along with more than $500,000 between her candidate account and another committee in her name.

Nathan had less than $30,000 cash on hand by the end of 2025, when the race was just ramping up. Updated numbers are expected to be released later this week.

That fundraising gap is why political pollster and commentator Barry Edwards thinks Nathan may disappoint next month.

“Republicans are probably going to outspend Nathan 30-to-1,” Edwards said. “If (Democrats) thought they could take the seat, money would be pouring in. It’s not.”

Nikki Fried, chairperson of the Florida Democratic Party, pointed to Democrats in other states who have flipped seats while being outraised as evidence that Nathan can win.

“The people are waking up to understand that the Republicans do have unlimited resources, but they want individuals who are just genuine,” she said. “That’s why, regardless of the war chest, regardless of the financials, Democrats are still prevailing.”

Nathan, a leader in the local chapter of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, has never held public office before. He’s lived in Tampa Bay since 2008 and says he’s as tired as voters are of the ballooning cost of living.

“The basic things that are necessities in your everyday life have become, or are becoming, unaffordable for a lot of people, and that’s their major concern,” Nathan said in an interview. “And people are just tired of getting distracted with whatever the culture war issue of the day is.”

Nathan said his top three focuses are supporting public education, tackling affordability and respecting dignity at work. In Tallahassee, Nathan wants to advocate for workers’ unions, which are weakened by Florida’s right-to-work laws, he said.

Nathan said he’s hopeful that a grassroots campaign and Democrats’ national momentum will boost his prospects.

“I always knew I was going to be outraised … but they’re not going to outwork me,” he said.

In 2018, at age 22, Tomkow was elected to represent Polk County in the Florida House. She is the chair of the Health and Human Services Committee. In an interview, she emphasized her efforts in the Legislature to bring more dollars to Hillsborough County’s flood mitigation infrastructure and create a financial literacy course for students.

Tomkow said she wants to focus on property tax relief, a key initiative of DeSantis, and driving down property and car insurance rates. She’s snagged the endorsement of several elected Republicans in Hillsborough, including U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee and Sheriff Chad Chronister.

Though she’s spent the last eight years in Polk County, Tomkow said her roots in Hillsborough run deep. She was born in the district, and her husband, Thomas Piccolo, lives in Tampa.

The Nathan campaign has called into question whether Tomkow still lives at her Polk City address when her husband resides in Tampa. Tomkow said she’s living at her family’s ranch house in Polk City, within the state House district she serves, and plans to move to Tampa if elected to the state Senate.

Despite the string of Democratic victories lately, Tomkow said she’s feeling “at peace.”

“I am confident that when individuals in Hillsborough County get out to vote, they will have heard from me, because I will tirelessly work to make sure I return every phone call, every email, every text message and knock every door,” she said.

Democrats swung the needle back their way by more than 30 points in Louisiana and Texas, even as they were outspent 3-to-1 and more than 10-to-1, respectively. They were less successful in the battle for a deep-red Georgia state Senate seat on Tuesday, where the Democratic candidate lost after only moving the needle by about five points compared to 2022.

Democrats may have national momentum, Edwards said. But in Florida, Republicans’ voter registration advantage keeps growing.

As of Jan. 31, Republicans had gained some 14,000 active registered Florida voters compared to 2025. Democrats had lost 300.

Florida Democrats improved upon their 2024 performance by around 17 points in special congressional elections last year, though they still lost their bids for those deep-red seats. But in those races, the Democratic candidates outspent Republicans — which seems unlikely to happen in Nathan’s case, Edwards said.

Fried said she’s still bullish on Democrats’ prospects in upcoming special elections.

“I think with the combination of the work we’ve been doing, the fact that people are angry at Republicans in this moment, it creates a huge opportunity in our state,” she said. “This is an election cycle where … I think that we’re going to shock a lot of people by flipping some seats that may not have otherwise been on people’s radars.”